Carrarese vs Pescara Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio dei Marmi Sun, 19 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Carrarese CAR
2 – 2
Pescara PES
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Filippo Distefano - 19'
Devid Eugene Bouah - 84'
Goal
|
Goal
Gaetano Letizia - 35'
Gennaro Acampora - 61'

CONTEXT

Carrarese and Pescara delivered a 2-2 draw in Serie C, with the home team, deemed stronger pre-match, holding just 41% possession to the visitors' 59%. The score was level 1-1 at halftime, reflecting early balance before both sides added a goal in the second half. No red cards disrupted play, and no notable second-half adjustments occurred. This outcome marks a significant 73.2% structural deviation linked to Carrarese, diverging from expectations of a home win given their favored status. Market alignment failed, as the draw contradicted pre-match assessments where home victory held the highest probability at 43.4%, followed by away at 29.8% and draw at 26.8%. Efficiency shift remained in line with norms, though xG data absence prevents precise performance evaluation. Possession disparity did not translate to dominance, underscoring resilient defending and clinical finishing from both.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited a significant 73.2% structural deviation attributed to Carrarese.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment absent as draw diverged from pre-match home-favored probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating dismissal-related distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Pezzuto
I. Pezzuto
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
D. Yoshikawa
D. Yoshikawa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
G. Mokhtar
G. Mokhtar
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
S. Galipò
S. Galipò
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.61
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
VS
Pescara G. Gorgone
G. Gorgone
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Reggiana Rank: L
Spezia Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Sampdoria Rank: W
Juve Stabia Rank: D
Palermo Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sampdoria Rank: L
Reggiana Rank: W
Empoli Rank: L
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Südtirol Rank: D
Bari 1908 Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Carrarese
43.37%
Draw
26.82%
Away Pescara
29.81%

Movement

Changes since opening
Carrarese
+38.46%
Draw
-63.82%
Pescara
+25.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.85
22.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Carrarese
Pescara
Power Score
22.85
22.35
League Position
9
18
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Pescara — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Carrarese Pescara

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pescara

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.54
28.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.22
38.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Carrarese +1.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Pescara -1.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Pescara
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Carrarese Pescara
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Carrarese Pescara
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Pescara
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Carrarese
vs
Pescara
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Carrarese Pescara
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Carrarese 0.39
Pescara 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Carrarese Pescara
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Carrarese 0.04
Pescara 0.06
Carrarese
Pescara
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PES had peak pressure around 36'.
  • CAR started the game with stronger pressure.
CAR Pressure PES Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PES reached the top pressure at 36' (77.95).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Carrarese CAR Home
1 matches
Pescara PES Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:03:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
M. Bleve
Italy
1 M. Bleve
N. Calabrese
Italy
37 N. Calabrese
J. Illanes Minucci
Argentina
4 J. Illanes Minucci
F. Ruggeri
Substitution
Italy
26 F. Ruggeri
D. Bouah
Italy
13 D. Bouah
G. Parlanti
Substitution
Italy
77 G. Parlanti
E. Zuelli
Substitution
Italy
17 E. Zuelli
L. Hasa
Italy
70 L. Hasa
N. Belloni
Italy
7 N. Belloni
F. Di Stefano
Substitution
Italy
28 F. Di Stefano
F. Abiuso
Substitution
Italy
9 F. Abiuso
I. Saio
Italy
22 I. Saio
A. Cagnano
Italy
32 A. Cagnano
D. Bettella
Italy
6 D. Bettella
R. Capellini
Italy
2 R. Capellini
G. Letizia
Substitution
Italy
3 G. Letizia
G. Olzer
Substitution
Italy
27 G. Olzer
G. Brugman
Uruguay
8 G. Brugman
L. Valzania
Substitution
Italy
14 L. Valzania
L. Insigne
Italy
11 L. Insigne
G. Acampora
Substitution
Italy
13 G. Acampora
A. Di Nardo
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Di Nardo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio dei Marmi
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ivano Pezzuto
Daisuke Emanuele Yoshikawa
Gamal Mokhtar
Simone Galipò

Statistics

Possession
CAR
44%
PES
56%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 4
36 Dangerous attacks 53
41 Possession 59
6 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 18
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
15 Throwins 17
2 Assists 1
15 Dribble Attempts 17
97 Ball Safe 96
9 Goal Kicks 7
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 59
8 Successful Dribbles 10
7 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 9

Attacking

75 Attacks 117
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

9 Key Passes 8
253 Successful Passes 420
76 Successful Passes Percentage 85
27 Successful Long Passes 26
64 Long Passes 50
332 Passes 492
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

18 Tackles 11
7 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 3
60 Duels Won 53

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 15
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
18 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Ivano Pezzuto

Starting XI ▼

1
Marco Bleve
Marco Bleve Goalkeeper
6.86
4
Julián Illanes
Julián Illanes Defender
6.89
26
Fabio Andrea Ruggeri
Fabio Andrea Ruggeri Defender
6.67
73
Jonas Rouhi
Jonas Rouhi
Defender76'
6.75
37
Nicolò Calabrese
Nicolò Calabrese Defender
6.79
7
Niccolò Belloni
Niccolò Belloni Midfielder
6.69
13
Devid Eugene Bouah
Devid Eugene Bouah Midfielder
6.65
17
Emanuele Zuelli
Emanuele Zuelli Midfielder
7
18
Nicolás Schiavi
Nicolás Schiavi
Midfielder69'
7.15
70
Luis Hasa
Luis Hasa Midfielder
7.06
77
Gabriele Parlanti
Gabriele Parlanti Midfielder
6.6
8
Filippo Melegoni
Filippo Melegoni
Midfielder69'
6.69
9
Fabio Abiuso
Fabio Abiuso Attacker
6.99
92
Ernesto Torregrossa
Ernesto Torregrossa
Attacker76'
6.59
28
Filippo Distefano
Filippo Distefano Attacker
6.71
32
Mattia Finotto
Mattia Finotto
Attacker59'
6.66
Referee : Ivano Pezzuto

Starting XI ▼

22
Ivan Saio
Ivan Saio Goalkeeper
6.9
2
Riccardo Capellini
Riccardo Capellini Defender
6.7
3
Gaetano Letizia
Gaetano Letizia Defender
7
26
Andreaw Gravillon
Andreaw Gravillon
Defender66'
6.53
6
Davide Bettella
Davide Bettella Defender
6.65
32
Andrea Cagnano
Andrea Cagnano Defender
6.59
8
Gastón Brugman
Gastón Brugman Midfielder
6.93
11
Lorenzo Insigne
Lorenzo Insigne Midfielder
7.45
13
Gennaro Acampora
Gennaro Acampora Midfielder
6.88
36
Lorenzo Berardi
Lorenzo Berardi
Midfielder67'
6.58
14
Luca Valzania
Luca Valzania Midfielder
6.83
21
Fabrizio Caligara
Fabrizio Caligara
Midfielder85'
6.92
27
Giacomo Olzer
Giacomo Olzer Midfielder
6.88
7
Lorenzo Meazzi
Lorenzo Meazzi
Attacker67'
6.84
9
Antonio Di Nardo
Antonio Di Nardo Attacker
6.99
31
Flavio Russo
Flavio Russo
Attacker85'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Flavio Russo → Antonio Di Nardo
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Fabrizio Caligara → Luca Valzania
9th Substitution
Event
Devid Eugene Bouah
Header / 4th Goal
84'
Event
Ernesto Torregrossa → Fabio Abiuso
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Jonas Rouhi → Fabio Andrea Ruggeri
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Nicolás Schiavi → Emanuele Zuelli
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Filippo Melegoni → Gabriele Parlanti
5th Substitution
69'
67'
Event
Lorenzo Berardi → Gennaro Acampora
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Lorenzo Meazzi → Giacomo Olzer
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Andreaw Gravillon → Gaetano Letizia
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Gennaro Acampora
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Mattia Finotto → Filippo Distefano
1st Substitution
59'
1ST-HALF
Event
Fabio Andrea Ruggeri
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
35'
Event
Gaetano Letizia
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
22'
Event
Gennaro Acampora
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Filippo Distefano
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw between Carrarese and Pescara highlights Serie C's competitive balance, where the home stronger team salvaged a point despite possession inferiority. Significant structural deviation of 73.2% for Carrarese signals a pronounced shift from projected home success. Market misalignment evident, with the result favoring the lower-probability draw over home win. Efficiencies aligned normally amid absent xG for deeper analysis, and lack of red cards preserved natural flow. Halftime parity extended to full time, reflecting mutual attacking potency and defensive solidity. This outcome maintains status quo for both, denying Carrarese a boost while Pescara gains road resilience.

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