Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadyum Samsun Sun, 19 Apr - 2:00 PM
Super Lig
Samsunspor Samsunspor
2 Winner 1
Beşiktaş BES
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Carlo Holse - 50'
Tanguy Coulibaly - 56'
Goal
|
Goal
Kristjan Asllani - 90+1' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Samsunspor 2–1 Beşiktaş. The result saw Samsunspor take the points. Samsunspor showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 49%–51%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Samsunspor won with minimal 3.9% structural deviation from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevents determination of outcome consistency.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to unavailable metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout elements impacted proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Curbay
M. Curbay
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
E. Sancaktar
E. Sancaktar
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
B. Pakkan
B. Pakkan
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
G. Hasova
G. Hasova
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
VS
Beşiktaş A. Yalçın
A. Yalçın
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eyüpspor Rank: W
Rizespor Rank: L
Konyaspor Rank: D
Kayserispor Rank: W
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antalyaspor Rank: W
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Kasımpaşa Rank: W
Gençlerbirliği Rank: W
Galatasaray Rank: L
Kocaelispor Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Samsunspor
96.07%
Draw
3.73%
Away Beşiktaş
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Samsunspor
+1.91%
Draw
-1.92%
Beşiktaş
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.83
29.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Samsunspor
Beşiktaş
Power Score
24.83
29.82
League Position
7
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Beşiktaş — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Samsunspor Beşiktaş

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Beşiktaş

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Samsunspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Beşiktaş
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.04
32.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.45
32.04
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Samsunspor -0.04 Efficiency Index
vs
Beşiktaş +0.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Samsunspor
Beşiktaş
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Samsunspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Beşiktaş
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Samsunspor Beşiktaş
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Samsunspor Beşiktaş
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Samsunspor
Beşiktaş
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Samsunspor
vs
Beşiktaş
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Samsunspor Beşiktaş
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Samsunspor 0.41
Beşiktaş 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Samsunspor Beşiktaş
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Samsunspor 0.02
Beşiktaş 0.06
Samsunspor
Beşiktaş
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BES had peak pressure around 47'.
  • BES started the game with stronger pressure.
Samsunspor Pressure BES Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BES reached the top pressure at 47' (90.02).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Samsunspor Samsunspor Home
9 matches
Beşiktaş BES Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
1
Goals
8
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
8
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:03:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
O. Kocuk
Turkey
1 O. Kocuk
Z. Yavru
Substitution
Turkey
18 Z. Yavru
Ľ. Šatka
Slovakia
37 Ľ. Šatka
R. van Drongelen
Netherlands
4 R. van Drongelen
L. Tómasson
Iceland
17 L. Tómasson
A. Makoumbou
Substitution
France
29 A. Makoumbou
J. Ntcham
Substitution
France
10 J. Ntcham
T. Coulibaly
Substitution
France
70 T. Coulibaly
C. Holse
Denmark
21 C. Holse
E. Kılınç
Turkey
11 E. Kılınç
M. Mouandilmadji
Substitution
Chad
9 M. Mouandilmadji
E. Destanoğlu
Turkey
30 E. Destanoğlu
R. Yılmaz
Turkey
33 R. Yılmaz
F. Uduokhai
Germany
14 F. Uduokhai
E. Agbadou
Ivory Coast
12 E. Agbadou
M. Murillo Bermudez
Panama
62 M. Murillo Bermudez
K. Asllani
Albania
23 K. Asllani
E. Toure
Substitution
Mali
19 E. Toure
O. Kökçü
Substitution
Turkey
10 O. Kökçü
J. Olaitan
Benin
15 J. Olaitan
C. Ünder
Substitution
Turkey
11 C. Ünder
H. Oh
Substitution
South Korea
9 H. Oh

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadyum Samsun
Capacity
33919
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Murat Tuğberk Curbay
Esat Sancaktar
Burak Pakkan
Gürcan Hasova

Statistics

Possession
Samsunspor
48%
BES
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 3
34 Dangerous attacks 51
49 Possession 51
1 Corners 7
4 Free kicks 16
5 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
0 Injuries 3
2 Assists 0
14 Throwins 14
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
5 Substitutions 4
7 Dribble Attempts 10
96 Ball Safe 89
9 Goal Attempts 8
15 Successful Headers 10
3 Successful Dribbles 6
11 Goal Kicks 9

Attacking

72 Attacks 117

Possession

23 Successful Long Passes 29
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
84 Successful Passes Percentage 86
465 Passes 480
390 Successful Passes 412
53 Long Passes 50
10 Key Passes 9

Defensive

2 Saves 3
3 Interceptions 11
34 Duels Won 41
13 Tackles 10

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 19
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

17 Fouls 4
5 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Gürcan Hasova

Starting XI ▼

1
Okan Kocuk
Okan Kocuk Goalkeeper
6.71
4
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen Defender
7.06
17
Logi Tómasson
Logi Tómasson Defender
6.86
18
Zeki Yavru
Zeki Yavru Defender
6.83
2
Joe Mendes
Joe Mendes
Defender72'
6.47
37
Lubomir Satka
Lubomir Satka Defender
6.77
10
Olivier Ntcham
Olivier Ntcham Midfielder
6.86
20
Yalçın Kayan
Yalçın Kayan
Midfielder82'
6.73
11
Emre Kılınç
Emre Kılınç Midfielder
6.95
21
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse Midfielder
7.1
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou Midfielder
6.89
55
Yunus Emre Çift
Yunus Emre Çift
Defender89'
6.69
70
Tanguy Coulibaly
Tanguy Coulibaly Midfielder
6.57
77
Afonso Sousa
Afonso Sousa
Midfielder82'
6.89
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji Attacker
6.73
19
Cherif Ndiaye
Cherif Ndiaye
Attacker72'
6.86
Referee : Gürcan Hasova

Starting XI ▼

30
Ersin Destanoğlu
Ersin Destanoğlu Goalkeeper
6.87
12
Emmanuel Agbadou
Emmanuel Agbadou Defender
7.11
14
Felix Uduokhai
Felix Uduokhai Defender
7.01
33
Rıdvan Yılmaz
Rıdvan Yılmaz Defender
6.74
62
Amir Murillo
Amir Murillo Defender
6.77
10
Orkun Kökçü
Orkun Kökçü Midfielder
7.65
7
Milot Rashica
Milot Rashica
Midfielder78'
6.76
11
Cengiz Ünder
Cengiz Ünder Midfielder
6.96
18
Vaclav Cerny
Vaclav Cerny
Attacker65'
7.08
15
Junior Olaitan
Junior Olaitan Midfielder
6.92
19
El Bilal Touré
El Bilal Touré Midfielder
6.97
26
Jota Silva
Jota Silva
Attacker65'
6.77
23
Kristjan Asllani
Kristjan Asllani Midfielder
6.6
9
Hyeon-gyu Oh
Hyeon-gyu Oh Attacker
7.38
91
Mustafa Hekimoğlu
Mustafa Hekimoğlu
Attacker88'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Yalçın Kayan
Time wasting / 7th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+1'
Event
Kristjan Asllani
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Yunus Emre Çift → Antoine Makoumbou
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Rick van Drongelen
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
88'
88'
Event
Ersin Destanoğlu
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Mustafa Hekimoğlu → Hyeon-gyu Oh
8th Substitution
Event
Yalçın Kayan → Olivier Ntcham
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Afonso Sousa → Tanguy Coulibaly
7th Substitution
82'
78'
Event
Milot Rashica → Orkun Kökçü
5th Substitution
Event
Joe Mendes → Zeki Yavru
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Cherif Ndiaye → Marius Mouandilmadji
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Emre Kılınç
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
70'
65'
Event
Vaclav Cerny → Cengiz Ünder
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Amir Murillo
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Jota Silva → El Bilal Touré
2nd Substitution
Event
Tanguy Coulibaly
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
56'
Event
Carlo Holse
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
50'
1ST-HALF
Event
Antoine Makoumbou
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
Event
Lubomir Satka
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Samsunspor exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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