Arouca vs Estrela Amadora Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal de Arouca Sun, 19 Apr - 2:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Arouca Arouca
Versus
Estrela Amadora Estrela Amadora
KICKOFF : Sun, 19 Apr - 2:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Arouca hosts Estrela Amadora at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca in a mid-table Liga Portugal regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. Positioned 12th, the home side holds a decisive structural advantage with a power score of 19.02 against the visitors' 14.91, equating to a 4.1-point edge that underscores their superiority. Form metrics further bolster Arouca's case, rating at 14 compared to Estrela Amadora's modest 8.67, hinting at better recent momentum despite sparse outing details. Estrela, 14th in the standings, faces an uphill battle away from home. Detailed efficiency, transition, and set-piece data remain unavailable due to low-confidence proxies and absent xG metrics, shifting emphasis to raw power and form disparities. This fixture pits Arouca's home strength against Estrela's resilience in a tightly contested division.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Arouca possesses a 4.1-point power advantage (19.02 vs 14.91) and sits higher at 12th compared to Estrela Amadora's 14th.
  • Form: Arouca's form score stands at 14, superior to Estrela Amadora's 8.67.
  • Squad: Arouca's squad rates stronger overall with elevated power metrics over Estrela Amadora.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable amid limited recent outing details.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats unavailable with low confidence and proxy usage for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent due to disabled add-on and proxy reliance.
  • Market: Arouca 45.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.2% (Δ+0%) | Estrela Amadora 26.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Arouca V. Freire De Seabra
V. Freire De Seabra
VS
Estrela Amadora J. Rodrigues Carromeu
J. Rodrigues Carromeu
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Braga Rank: L
Estoril Rank: W
Moreirense Rank: W
Benfica Rank: L
Famalicão Rank: L
Porto Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: L
Nacional Rank: L
Casa Pia Rank: W
Rio Ave Rank: L
Gil Vicente Rank: D
AVS Rank: D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arouca
45.19%
Draw
28.21%
Away Estrela Amadora
26.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.02
14.91
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arouca
Estrela Amadora
Power Score
19.02
14.91
League Position
12
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arouca — Opponent-weighted form score
Estrela Amadora — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arouca Estrela Amadora

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arouca Arouca Home
5 matches
Estrela Amadora Estrela Amadora Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
7
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T01:05:21+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
J. Vinarčík
30 J. Vinarčík
T. Sousa Esgaio
28 T. Sousa Esgaio
J. Sánchez de Felipe
15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
J. Fontán Mondragón
3 J. Fontán Mondragón
B. Kuipers
25 B. Kuipers
N. Djouahra
7 N. Djouahra
P. Gozalbez Gilabert
10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
E. van Ee
22 E. van Ee
T. Fukui
21 T. Fukui
H. Lee
14 H. Lee
I. Martínez Gonzálvez
17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
R. Ribeiro
40 R. Ribeiro
B. Langa
24 B. Langa
B. Schappo
14 B. Schappo
S. Leković
4 S. Leković
M. Scholze
21 M. Scholze
R. Oliveira Botelho
8 R. Oliveira Botelho
K. Höög-Jansson
6 K. Höög-Jansson
E. Doué
39 E. Doué
I. Stoica
10 I. Stoica
R. Pereira de Pinho
9 R. Pereira de Pinho
A. Marcus
99 A. Marcus

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Capacity
5600
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho
André Ferreira
Rúben João Rodrigues da Silva
João Pedro Sousa Mendes

Expected Lineup

Referee : Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho

Starting XI ▼

30
Jakub Vinarcik
Jakub Vinarcik Goalkeeper
6.29
10
Pablo Gozálbez
Pablo Gozálbez Midfielder
6.6
14
Hyun-ju Lee
Hyun-ju Lee Midfielder
6.71
17
Iván Barbero
Iván Barbero Centre Forward
6.77
7
Naïs Djouahra
Naïs Djouahra Left Back
6.85
15
Javi Sánchez
Javi Sánchez Right Back
6.94
21
Taichi Fukui
Taichi Fukui Central Midfield
6.77
22
Espen van Ee
Espen van Ee Central Midfield
6.79
25
Bas Kuipers
Bas Kuipers Left Back
6.52
28
Tiago Esgaio
Tiago Esgaio Right Back
6.76
3
José Fontán
José Fontán Centre Back
6.75
Referee : Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho

Starting XI ▼

40
Renan Ribeiro
Renan Ribeiro Goalkeeper
6.76
99
Abraham Marcus
Abraham Marcus Attacker
7.09
9
Rodrigo Pinho
Rodrigo Pinho Centre Forward
6.79
10
Ianis Stoica
Ianis Stoica Attacker
6.74
6
Kevin Höög Jansson
Kevin Höög Jansson Central Midfield
6.75
8
Robinho
Robinho Central Midfield
6.63
24
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa Left Back
6.7
39
Eddy Doué
Eddy Doué Central Midfield
6.67
4
Stefan Leković
Stefan Leković Right Back
6.89
14
Bernardo Schappo
Bernardo Schappo Left Back
6.79
21
Max Scholze
Max Scholze Right Back
6.76

CONCLUSION

Arouca enters as clear favorites, leveraging home advantage, superior power ratings, and stronger form to target a vital win against lower-ranked Estrela Amadora. The 4.1-point edge and mid-table positioning amplify their prospects in this Liga Portugal scrap. Without granular xG or set-piece insights, the contest hinges on structural dominance and momentum. Estrela must defy the gaps in form and power to snag a point. Expect Arouca to control proceedings and secure three points on familiar turf.

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