Sarpsborg 08 vs Tromsø Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Sarpsborg Stadion Sun, 19 Apr - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08
0 Winner 1
Tromsø Tromsø
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 5 Regular Season
|
Goal
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd - 59'

CONTEXT

Tromsø claimed a narrow 1-0 victory over Sarpsborg 08 in this Eliteserien encounter, with the decisive goal arriving after a goalless first half. Both teams held exactly 50% possession, reflecting a balanced contest throughout. Sarpsborg 08, hosting the match, failed to convert their opportunities, while Tromsø, identified as the stronger team, made the most of their second-half chance. No red cards disrupted play, ensuring full squads competed to the final whistle. Pre-match assessments gave Tromsø a 42.6% implied win probability, alongside 30.2% for Sarpsborg and 27.2% for a draw. The result produced a significant 57.4% deviation favoring Tromsø, with the outcome aligning closely with market expectations. Efficiency remained in line with projections, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match outcome showed a 57.4% structural deviation favoring Tromsø, rated as significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout elements impacted the result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. B. V. Schulz
M. B. V. Schulz
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
A. Al Fahad
A. Al Fahad
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
I. Jahr
I. Jahr
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
S. Sinnes
S. Sinnes
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Sarpsborg 08 E. Sel
E. Sel
VS
Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
1.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.27
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: D
Rosenborg Rank: L
Start Rank: D
Sandefjord Rank: W
Molde Rank: W
Bryne Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lillestrøm Rank: D
Kristiansund Rank: W
Rosenborg Rank: W
Brann Rank: W
Fredrikstad Rank: W
Kristiansund Rank: W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 4 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sarpsborg 08
30.23%
Draw
27.17%
Away Tromsø
42.6%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sarpsborg 08
+30.04%
Draw
+22.08%
Tromsø
-52.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.46
38.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sarpsborg 08
Tromsø
Power Score
26.46
38.06
League Position
11
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sarpsborg 08 — Opponent-weighted form score
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sarpsborg 08 Tromsø

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sarpsborg 08

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Tromsø

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tromsø
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.90
27.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.20
30.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sarpsborg 08 +0.38 Efficiency Index
vs
Tromsø -0.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sarpsborg 08
Tromsø
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tromsø
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sarpsborg 08 Tromsø
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sarpsborg 08 Tromsø
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sarpsborg 08
Tromsø
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sarpsborg 08
vs
Tromsø
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sarpsborg 08 Tromsø
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sarpsborg 08 0.17
Tromsø 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sarpsborg 08 Tromsø
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sarpsborg 08 0.02
Tromsø 0.00
Sarpsborg 08
Tromsø
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Tromsø had peak pressure around 6'.
  • Tromsø started the game with stronger pressure.
Sarpsborg 08 Pressure Tromsø Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Tromsø reached the top pressure at 6' (85.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 24 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 Home
24 matches
Tromsø Tromsø Away
Match Record
11
Wins
9
4
Draws
4
9
Losses
11
Goals
37
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
37
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:04:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
M. Ndiaye
Senegal
1 M. Ndiaye
C. Niyukuri
Substitution
Norway
12 C. Niyukuri
B. Utvik
Norway
4 B. Utvik
S. Rosted
Norway
24 S. Rosted
A. Hiim
Norway
21 A. Hiim
S. Sørli
Norway
10 S. Sørli
A. Sher
Sweden
6 A. Sher
S. Christiansen
Substitution
Norway
8 S. Christiansen
N. Williams
Substitution
Sweden
17 N. Williams
D. Seland Karlsbakk
Norway
11 D. Seland Karlsbakk
A. Hansen
Substitution
Denmark
33 A. Hansen
J. Haugaard
Denmark
1 J. Haugaard
A. Warneryd
Sweden
29 A. Warneryd
A. Kinteh
25 A. Kinteh
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
Norway
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
V. Skjærvik
Norway
4 V. Skjærvik
L. Jean Cornic
Substitution
Norway
2 L. Jean Cornic
J. Hjertø-Dahl
Norway
6 J. Hjertø-Dahl
R. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
11 R. Yttergård Jenssen
D. Edvardsson
Sweden
5 D. Edvardsson
H. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 H. Larsen
L. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
7 L. Larsen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 5 · Regular Season
Stadium
Sarpsborg Stadion
Capacity
8022
Attendance
4227
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marius Benkestok Vesterhus Schulz
Abdulhadi Al Fahad
Ivar Michael Jahr
Svein Tore Sinnes

Statistics

Possession
Sarpsborg 08
50%
Tromsø
50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 2
69 Dangerous attacks 52
50 Possession 50
10 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 3
2 Injuries 2
0 Assists 1
25 Throwins 20
8 Dribble Attempts 6
6 Goal Kicks 4
2 Goal Attempts 8
0 Successful Dribbles Percentage 0
69 Ball Safe 55

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
81 Attacks 105
2 Counter Attacks 0

Possession

368 Successful Passes 387
8 Key Passes 6
78 Long Passes 67
36 Successful Long Passes 35
82 Successful Passes Percentage 84
448 Passes 463
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

32 Duels Won 44
15 Tackles 18
11 Interceptions 3
5 Saves 2

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 23
9 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

14 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Svein Tore Sinnes

Starting XI ▼

1
Mamour Ndiaye
Mamour Ndiaye Goalkeeper
7.13
4
Bjørn Inge Utvik
Bjørn Inge Utvik Defender
7.01
12
Claus Niyukuri
Claus Niyukuri Defender
6.87
22
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Midfielder72'
6.84
21
Anders Hiim
Anders Hiim Defender
6.97
24
Sigurd Rosted
Sigurd Rosted Defender
7.04
6
Aimar Sher
Aimar Sher Midfielder
7.57
8
Sander Christiansen
Sander Christiansen Midfielder
7.04
14
Jo Inge Berget
Jo Inge Berget
Attacker72'
6.53
10
Sondre Sörli
Sondre Sörli Midfielder
6.74
17
Noa Williams
Noa Williams Midfielder
6.65
32
Eirik Wichne
Eirik Wichne
Defender65'
6.41
11
Daniel Karlsbakk
Daniel Karlsbakk Attacker
6.71
33
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Attacker
6.97
18
Bop Guèye
Bop Guèye
Midfielder86'
6.64
Referee : Svein Tore Sinnes

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
7.21
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Defender
7.24
30
Isak Vådebu
Isak Vådebu
Defender80'
7.3
4
Vetle Skjærvik
Vetle Skjærvik Defender
7.16
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Defender
7.44
25
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh Defender
7.24
29
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd Defender
7.12
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Midfielder
7.27
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl Midfielder
7.64
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen Midfielder
7.36
7
Lars Olden Larsen
Lars Olden Larsen Attacker
6.98
24
Jens Berland Husebø
Jens Berland Husebø
Defender90+1'
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen Attacker
7.07
9
Daniel Braut
Daniel Braut
Attacker71'
6.89

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Jens Berland Husebø → Lars Olden Larsen
7th Substitution
Event
Bop Guèye → Andreas Hansen
6th Substitution
86'
80'
Event
Isak Vådebu → Leo Cornic
5th Substitution
Event
Jo Inge Berget → Sander Christiansen
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen → Claus Niyukuri
4th Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Daniel Braut → Heine Åsen Larsen
2nd Substitution
Event
Eirik Wichne → Noa Williams
1st Substitution
65'
59'
Event
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Leo Cornic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Tromsø's disciplined performance yielded a valuable away win against Sarpsborg 08, capitalizing on even possession to secure the lone goal post-halftime. As the pre-designated stronger team, their success marked a significant deviation from baseline expectations, yet stayed true to market alignments. The lack of red cards preserved tactical balance, and efficiency held steady without notable shifts. Absence of xG data limits performance granularity, but the result underscores Tromsø's edge in converting limited chances. Sarpsborg 08's inability to break the deadlock highlights ongoing challenges in tight fixtures.

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