Metz vs Paris Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Ligue 1, France

Stade Saint-Symphorien Sun, 19 Apr - 3:15 PM

Ligue 1

Metz MTZ

Paris PFC

KICKOFF : Sun, 19 Apr - 3:15 PM

Round 30 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Metz welcomes Paris to Stade Saint-Symphorien for a crucial Ligue 1 regular season clash in 2025/2026. Sitting 18th in the table, Metz face an uphill battle against 12th-placed Paris, who hold a commanding power advantage of 16 points with scores of 11.89 for the hosts and 27.84 for the visitors. Paris's superior form rating of 28.89 dwarfs Metz's modest 4.44, highlighting their struggles in recent outings. This matchup pits a relegation-threatened side against a mid-table contender aiming to climb higher. Structural disparities are evident, with Paris's overall strength likely to dominate possession and chances. Metz will rely on home advantage and defensive resilience, but Paris's efficiency in attack could prove decisive. Set-piece data remains unavailable due to low-confidence proxies, adding uncertainty to dead-ball situations. Transitions may favor the visitors' pace and quality.

TL;DR

Structural: Paris holds a 16-point power advantage over Metz, with scores of 27.84 away versus 11.89 home.
Form: Paris boasts a form score of 28.89 compared to Metz's 4.44.
Squad: Paris ranks higher at 12th in Ligue 1, while Metz languishes in 18th.
Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team.
Transition: Paris's superior power score suggests stronger transition play potential.
Set pieces: Set-piece metrics unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage for both teams.
xVariable: xG data not available, limiting advanced chance creation analysis.
Market: Baseline split: Metz 27.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27% (Δ+0%) | Paris 45.5% (Δ+0%).

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Jan 25 vs Team A

Feb 1 vs Team B

Feb 8 vs Team C

B. Tavenot

A. Kombouare

0.59

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.14

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 0 - 1

No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Metz

27.45%

Draw

27.04%

Paris

45.51%

Team Power Ranking

11.89

27.84

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Metz

Paris

Power Score

11.89

27.84

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Metz — Opponent-weighted form score

Paris — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Metz Paris

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Metz MTZ Home

1 matches

Paris PFC Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-1

Goal Difference

Expected Goals

xGA

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T01:06:03+00:00

STARTING XI

61 P. Sy

39 K. Kouao

38 S. Sané

5 J. Gbamin

2 M. Colin

20 J. Deminguet

12 A. Touré

70 B. Sarr

10 G. Hein

7 H. Tsitaishvili

30 H. Diallo

35 K. Trapp

19 N. Sangui

5 M. Mbow

42 D. Coppola

17 A. Camara

21 M. Lopez

33 P. Lees Melou

27 M. Simon

18 M. Munetsi

24 L. Koleosho

36 C. Immobile

General Information

Date & Time

Apr 19, 2026, 03:15 PM

Competition

2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 30 · Regular Season

Stadium

Stade Saint-Symphorien

Capacity

26661

Pitch Surface

Grass

Weather

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees

Jeremy Stinat

Romain Perpinan

Christophe Mouysset

Florian Gonçalves de Araujo

Lineup

Referee : Jeremy Stinat

Manager ▼

B. Tavenot Coach

Starting XI ▼

Pape Sy Goalkeeper

7.16

Maxime Colin Defender

6.6

Jean-Philippe Gbamin Defender

6.58

Sadibou Sané Defender

6.79

Koffi Kouao Defender

6.93

Gauthier Hein Midfielder

7.11

Alpha Touré Midfielder

6.59

Jessy Deminguet Midfielder

6.64

Giorgi Tsitaishvili Attacker

6.76

Habib Diallo Attacker

6.8

Bouna Sarr Attacker

6.38

Referee : Jeremy Stinat

Manager ▼

A. Kombouare Coach

Starting XI ▼

Kevin Trapp Goalkeeper

6.88

Moustapha Mbow Defender

6.92

Adama Camara Defender

6.77

Nhoa Sangui Defender

6.65

Diego Coppola Defender

6.86

Marshall Munetsi Midfielder

6.91

Maxime Lopez Midfielder

6.98

Pierre Lees-Melou Midfielder

6.9

Luca Koleosho Attacker

6.77

Moses Simon Attacker

6.78

Ciro Immobile Attacker

6.91

CONCLUSION

Paris enters as clear favorites, leveraging their substantial power and form edges to exploit Metz's vulnerabilities at Stade Saint-Symphorien. The hosts' lowly league position underscores defensive frailties, potentially overwhelmed by Paris's attacking prowess. Without reliable set-piece or xG insights, the focus shifts to open-play dynamics where transitions could be pivotal. Metz must maximize home support for a resilient showing, but Paris's mid-table momentum positions them to secure a vital away win and bolster their campaign. Expect a controlled performance from the visitors, capitalizing on their 16-point superiority.

STANDINGS

CONTEXT