Calcio Padova vs Reggiana Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Comunale Euganeo Sun, 19 Apr - 3:15 PM

Serie B

Calcio Padova PAD

Reggiana Reggiana

Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 3:15 PM

Round 35 Regular Season

Alessandro Seghetti - 80'

CONTEXT

Calcio Padova claimed a 1-0 home victory over Reggiana in a Serie C encounter characterized by controlled possession and a late breakthrough. The first half finished 0-0, with Padova enjoying 56% possession but failing to convert pressure into goals, while Reggiana managed 44% and offered limited threats. The second half mirrored the pattern until Padova's decisive strike secured the points. No red cards disrupted play, and no notable tactical adjustments were observed. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Padova's result marked a significant 95.5% structural deviation in their favor, diverging from expectations where Reggiana appeared marginally preferred. Efficiency metrics aligned with projections, though xG data absence limits deeper chance quality insights. Possession dominance underscored Padova's structural edge, enabling a clean sheet and minimal concession risks.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Calcio Padova's win exhibited a significant 95.5% structural deviation in their favor.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents assessment of outcome consistency with expected goals.
Market alignment: Result did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion from dismissals.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

Giuseppe Mucera

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Catallo

1st Assistant

A. Zanotti

4th Official

M. Pressato

2nd Assistant

R. Breda

P. Bisoli

1.07

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.81

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 0 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Calcio Padova

4.47%

Draw

91.93%

Reggiana

3.61%

Team Power Ranking

16.96

15.92

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Calcio Padova

Reggiana

Power Score

16.96

15.92

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score

Reggiana — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Calcio Padova Reggiana

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Calcio Padova

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Reggiana

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Reggiana

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

21.96

32.05

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

32.05

21.96

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Calcio Padova -0.97 Efficiency Index

Reggiana +0.97 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Calcio Padova

Reggiana

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Reggiana

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Calcio Padova Reggiana

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Calcio Padova Reggiana

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Calcio Padova

Reggiana

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Calcio Padova

Reggiana

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Calcio Padova Reggiana

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Calcio Padova Reggiana

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Calcio Padova

Reggiana

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Reggiana had peak pressure around 7'.
Reggiana started the game with stronger pressure.

PAD Pressure Reggiana Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Reggiana reached the top pressure at 7' (74.45).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Calcio Padova PAD Home

1 matches

Reggiana Reggiana Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:04:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2

Match Formation 4-3-2-1

22 A. Sorrentino

72 C. Faedo

55 L. Villa

58 C. Pastina

17 A. Capelli

8 P. Fusi

6 L. Crisetig

7 K. Varas Marcillo

30 G. Favale

20 M. Bortolussi

77 F. Di Mariano

1 A. Micai

43 S. Bonetti

47 M. Vanelli Lusuardi

34 F. Vicari

17 L. Libutti

10 K. Bozhanaj

16 T. Reinhart

26 M. Bertagnoli

90 M. Portanova

93 M. Lambourde

11 C. Gondo

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 19, 2026, 03:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Comunale Euganeo

Capacity :

32420

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Ivan Catallo

Andrea Zanotti

Giuseppe Mucera

Matteo Pressato

Statistics

Possession

PAD

55%

Reggiana

45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

2 Big Chances Created 2

2 Shots 3

46 Dangerous attacks 42

56 Possession 44

5 Corners 2

19 Free kicks 16

0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Assists 0

79 Ball Safe 72

6 Goal Attempts 10

0 Injuries 1

4 Substitutions 5

21 Throwins 23

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41

5 Successful Dribbles 7

7 Goal Kicks 9

15 Dribble Attempts 17

Attacking

124 Attacks 82

1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

7 Key Passes 7

438 Passes 333

353 Successful Passes 245

66 Long Passes 61

24 Successful Long Passes 24

81 Successful Passes Percentage 74

Defensive

3 Saves 1

12 Interceptions 8

25 Tackles 17

60 Duels Won 53

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 4

20 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

0 Offsides 1

16 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : Giuseppe Mucera

Manager ▼

R. Breda Coach

Starting XI ▼

Alessandro Sorrentino Goalkeeper

Lorenzo Villa Defender

6.64

Christian Pastina Defender

6.82

Carlo Faedo Defender

6.81

Lorenzo Crisetig Midfielder

6.75

Kevin Varas Midfielder

6.86

Jonathan Silva

Midfielder77'

6.54

Pietro Fusi Midfielder

6.78

Luca Di Maggio

Midfielder68'

6.58

Alessandro Capelli Midfielder

6.9

Giulio Favale Midfielder

6.5

Mattia Bortolussi Attacker

7.06

Alessandro Seghetti

Attacker77'

6.54

Francesco Di Mariano Attacker

6.99

Gianluca Caprari

Attacker68'

6.73

Substitutes ▼

Gianluca Caprari

Attacker68'

6.73

Luca Di Maggio

Midfielder68'

6.58

Jonathan Silva

Midfielder77'

6.54

Alessandro Seghetti

Attacker77'

6.54

Bench ▼

Louis Mouquet Goalkeeper

Mattia Fortin Goalkeeper

6.99

Francesco Belli Defender

6.67

Marco Perrotta Defender

6.92

Paolo Ghiglione Defender

6.55

Filippo Sgarbi Defender

6.9

Giovanni Giunti Midfielder

6.47

Cristian Buonaiuto Attacker

6.8

Referee : Giuseppe Mucera