La Louvière vs Zulte-Waregem Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade du Tivoli Sun, 19 Apr - 5:15 PM
Pro League
La Louvière RAAL
0 Winner 2
Zulte-Waregem ZUL
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 5:15 PM
Round 3 Relegation Round
|
Goal
Marley Ake - 30'
Anosike Ementa - 90+5'

CONTEXT

La Louvière, considered the stronger team, suffered a 0-2 home defeat to Zulte-Waregem in a match that defied expectations. The hosts controlled possession with 52% to the visitors' 48% but failed to convert chances into goals. Zulte-Waregem struck first before halftime, leading 1-0, and added a second in the second half to secure the victory. Despite La Louvière's dominance in ball control, their attack lacked potency, while Zulte-Waregem capitalized efficiently on limited opportunities. No red cards disrupted the flow, and the game remained competitive throughout. This result highlights Zulte-Waregem's clinical finishing against a possession-heavy opponent.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zulte-Waregem achieved victory with minimal 4.8% deviation from expected structure.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams operated in line with efficiency norms.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No significant second-half adjustments or events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards ensured no distortion in game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
W. Smet
W. Smet
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.48
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
G. De Beuckelaer
G. De Beuckelaer
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.48
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
G. Seeldraeyers
G. Seeldraeyers
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.48
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
A. Letellier
A. Letellier
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.48
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
La Louvière F. Taquin
F. Taquin
VS
Zulte-Waregem S. Colpaert
S. Colpaert
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cercle Brugge Rank: L
Dender Rank: L
Genk Rank: D
Cercle Brugge Rank: W
Antwerp Rank: D
Standard Liège Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dender Rank: W
Cercle Brugge Rank: D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Gent Rank: L
Standard Liège Rank: L
Mechelen Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 4 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home La Louvière
0.19%
Draw
4.58%
Away Zulte-Waregem
95.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.13
17.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
La Louvière
Zulte-Waregem
Power Score
19.13
17.64
League Position
14
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
La Louvière — Opponent-weighted form score
Zulte-Waregem — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) La Louvière Zulte-Waregem

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

La Louvière

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zulte-Waregem

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

La Louvière ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zulte-Waregem
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.75
18.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.75
23.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
La Louvière +0.44 Efficiency Index
vs
Zulte-Waregem -0.44 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
La Louvière
Zulte-Waregem
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

La Louvière ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zulte-Waregem
Created Set-piece attacking threat
La Louvière Zulte-Waregem
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
La Louvière Zulte-Waregem
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
La Louvière
Zulte-Waregem
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
La Louvière
vs
Zulte-Waregem
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
La Louvière Zulte-Waregem
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
La Louvière 0.21
Zulte-Waregem 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
La Louvière Zulte-Waregem
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
La Louvière 0.05
Zulte-Waregem 0.00
La Louvière
Zulte-Waregem
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAAL had peak pressure around 37'.
  • RAAL started the game with stronger pressure.
RAAL Pressure ZUL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAAL reached the top pressure at 37' (58.59).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

La Louvière RAAL Home
4 matches
Zulte-Waregem ZUL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
4
Draws
4
0
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:06:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
M. Peano
Argentina
21 M. Peano
M. Maisonneuve
France
13 M. Maisonneuve
Y. Okou
France
99 Y. Okou
D. Lamego
France
25 D. Lamego
J. Liongola
Burundi
11 J. Liongola
S. Lahssaini
Belgium
15 S. Lahssaini
B. Soumaré
Substitution
France
28 B. Soumaré
S. Gueulette
Substitution
Rwanda
8 S. Gueulette
N. Gillot
France
3 N. Gillot
J. Afriyie
22 J. Afriyie
P. Fall
Substitution
Senegal
7 P. Fall
B. Gabriel
Belgium
13 B. Gabriel
L. Willen
Belgium
31 L. Willen
J. Kiilerich
Denmark
5 J. Kiilerich
L. Lemoine
Belgium
4 L. Lemoine
Y. Cappelle
Substitution
Belgium
55 Y. Cappelle
D. Asare
Belgium
40 D. Asare
E. Lofolomo
Germany
6 E. Lofolomo
W. Paugain
Substitution
France
12 W. Paugain
M. Ake
Substitution
France
39 M. Ake
A. Ementa
Denmark
18 A. Ementa
J. Amankwaah Opoku
Substitution
22 J. Amankwaah Opoku

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 05:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 3 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Stade du Tivoli
Capacity
12500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Wim Smet
Gilles De Beuckelaer
Gianni Seeldraeyers
Anthony Letellier

Statistics

Possession
RAAL
51%
ZUL
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 4
10 Shots 7
47 Dangerous attacks 40
52 Possession 48
7 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 20
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

0 Injuries 1
78 Ball Safe 97
0 Assists 2
4 Goal Kicks 14
28 Throwins 22
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
17 Dribble Attempts 15
9 Successful Dribbles 5
7 Goal Attempts 6
3 Substitutions 4

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 2
108 Attacks 79

Possession

334 Successful Passes 320
5 Key Passes 7
81 Successful Passes Percentage 79
28 Successful Long Passes 29
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
413 Passes 404
58 Long Passes 57

Defensive

50 Duels Won 61
1 Saves 2
18 Tackles 21
13 Interceptions 6

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 8
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
20 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Wim Smet

Starting XI ▼

21
Marcos Peano
Marcos Peano Goalkeeper
7.1
13
Maxence Maisonneuve
Maxence Maisonneuve Defender
6.74
25
Djibril Lamego
Djibril Lamego Defender
6.71
99
Yllan Okou
Yllan Okou Defender
6.96
3
Nolan Gillot
Nolan Gillot Midfielder
6.93
8
Samuel Gueulette
Samuel Gueulette Midfielder
6.6
27
Nachon Nsingi
Nachon Nsingi
Attacker76'
6.38
11
Jordi Liongola
Jordi Liongola Midfielder
6.87
15
Sami Lahssaini
Sami Lahssaini Midfielder
6.79
28
Bryan Soumaré
Bryan Soumaré Midfielder
6.62
20
Noah Makembo-Ntemo
Noah Makembo-Ntemo
Midfielder69'
6.3
7
Pape Moussa Fall
Pape Moussa Fall Attacker
7.06
98
Owen Maës
Owen Maës
Midfielder69'
6.47
22
Jerry Afriyie
Jerry Afriyie Attacker
6.67
Referee : Wim Smet

Starting XI ▼

13
Brent Gabriel
Brent Gabriel Goalkeeper
6.92
4
Laurent Lemoine
Laurent Lemoine Defender
6.89
5
Jakob Kiilerich
Jakob Kiilerich Defender
6.67
31
Lukas Willen
Lukas Willen Defender
6.66
6
Enrique Lofolomo
Enrique Lofolomo Midfielder
6.64
12
Wilguens Paugain
Wilguens Paugain Midfielder
6.77
19
Benoit Nyssen
Benoit Nyssen
Defender70'
6.66
40
Dirk Asare
Dirk Asare Midfielder
6.98
55
Yannick Cappelle
Yannick Cappelle Midfielder
6.79
45
Benoit De Jaegere
Benoit De Jaegere
Defender84'
6.54
18
Anosike Ementa
Anosike Ementa Attacker
7.22
22
Joseph Okopu
Joseph Okopu Attacker
6.89
36
Serxho Ujka
Serxho Ujka
Midfielder70'
6.75
39
Marley Ake
Marley Ake Attacker
6.77
8
Thomas Claes
Thomas Claes
Midfielder90+2'
6.9

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Anosike Ementa
Goal awarded
90+5'
Event
Anosike Ementa
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Yllan Okou
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
90+4'
90+2'
Event
Thomas Claes → Marley Ake
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Benoit De Jaegere → Yannick Cappelle
6th Substitution
Event
Nachon Nsingi → Samuel Gueulette
5th Substitution
76'
70'
Event
Benoit Nyssen → Wilguens Paugain
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Serxho Ujka → Joseph Okopu
4th Substitution
Event
Owen Maës → Pape Moussa Fall
1st Substitution
69'
Event
Noah Makembo-Ntemo → Bryan Soumaré
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Jordi Liongola
Penalty cancelled
55'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jerry Afriyie
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
37'
30'
Event
Marley Ake
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Zulte-Waregem's 2-0 win over stronger La Louvière underscores their opportunistic play, turning slight possession disadvantage into a clean-sheet triumph. Home side's 52% possession yielded zero goals, exposing finishing woes despite control. Visitors' first-half lead set the tone, with second-half insurance sealing it. Minimal structural deviation and market alignment affirm the result's consistency, absent xG insights. This upset boosts Zulte-Waregem's momentum while prompting La Louvière to refine attack.

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