Juventus vs Bologna Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Juventus Stadium Sun, 19 Apr - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Juventus JUV
2 Winner 0
Bologna BOL
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Khéphren Thuram - 57'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Juventus claimed a solid 2-0 home win against Bologna, asserting dominance from the outset with 55% possession compared to Bologna's 45%. They opened the scoring in the first half and doubled their lead after the interval, never relinquishing control as the stronger side. The match proceeded without disruptions, featuring no red cards and smooth flow throughout. Juventus' performance marked a significant 35.3% structural deviation, amplifying their edge beyond typical patterns. Pre-match assessments favored Juventus at 64.7% likelihood of victory, with draw at 20.4% and Bologna at 14.9%, and the outcome proved fully aligned. Bologna managed possession but failed to convert it into threats, underscoring Juventus' defensive solidity and clinical finishing. This result bolsters Juventus' campaign momentum.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Juventus recorded a significant 35.3% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Mariani

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Bindoni

1st Assistant

D. Perenzoni

4th Official

A. Tegoni

2nd Assistant

Juventus L. Spalletti
L. Spalletti
VS
Bologna V. Italiano
V. Italiano
1.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atalanta Rank: W
Genoa Rank: W
Sassuolo Rank: D
Udinese Rank: W
Pisa Rank: W
Roma Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lecce Rank: W
Cremonese Rank: W
Lazio Rank: L
Sassuolo Rank: W
Hellas Verona Rank: L
Pisa Rank: W
25
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 11 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Juventus
64.69%
Draw
20.38%
Away Bologna
14.93%

Movement

Changes since opening
Juventus
-33.17%
Draw
+18.46%
Bologna
+14.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
34.94
27.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Juventus
Bologna
Power Score
34.94
27.12
League Position
4
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Juventus — Opponent-weighted form score
Bologna — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Juventus Bologna

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Juventus

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bologna

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Juventus ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bologna
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.00
18.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.22
31.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Juventus +1.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Bologna -1.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Juventus
Bologna
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Juventus ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bologna
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Juventus Bologna
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Juventus Bologna
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Juventus
Bologna
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Juventus
vs
Bologna
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Juventus Bologna
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Juventus 0.23
Bologna 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Juventus Bologna
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Juventus 0.00
Bologna 0.03
Juventus
Bologna
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • JUV had peak pressure around 3'.
  • JUV started the game with stronger pressure.
JUV Pressure BOL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: JUV reached the top pressure at 3' (96.91).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Juventus JUV Home
37 matches
Bologna BOL Away
Match Record
25
Wins
1
11
Draws
11
1
Losses
25
Goals
68
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
68
+43
Goal Difference
-43

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:06:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Di Gregorio
Italy
16 M. Di Gregorio
P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
France
15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
Brazil
3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
L. Kelly
England
6 L. Kelly
E. Holm
Substitution
Sweden
2 E. Holm
M. Locatelli
Italy
5 M. Locatelli
W. McKennie
United States
22 W. McKennie
A. Cambiaso
Substitution
Italy
27 A. Cambiaso
F. Conceição
Substitution
Portugal
7 F. Conceição
J. Boga
Ivory Coast
13 J. Boga
J. David
Substitution
Canada
30 J. David
Pitch
F. Ravaglia
Italy
13 F. Ravaglia
J. Miranda González
Spain
33 J. Miranda González
J. Lucumí Bonilla
Colombia
26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
E. Fauske Helland
Substitution
Norway
5 E. Fauske Helland
N. Zortea
Italy
20 N. Zortea
T. Pobega
Substitution
Italy
4 T. Pobega
R. Freuler
Switzerland
8 R. Freuler
S. Sohm
Substitution
Switzerland
23 S. Sohm
N. Cambiaghi
Substitution
Italy
28 N. Cambiaghi
S. Castro
Substitution
Argentina
9 S. Castro
R. Orsolini
Italy
7 R. Orsolini

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Juventus Stadium
Capacity :
41507
Attendance :
40405
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniele Bindoni
Maurizio Mariani
Daniele Perenzoni
Alberto Tegoni

Statistics

Possession
JUV
54%
BOL
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
14 Shots 7
61 Dangerous attacks 24
55 Possession 45
6 Corners 1
5 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 9
7 Goal Attempts 6
64 Ball Safe 86
1 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2
10 Successful Dribbles 7
12 Successful Headers 13
22 Throwins 21
2 Assists 0
21 Dribble Attempts 14
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
107 Attacks 78

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 83
413 Successful Passes 333
487 Passes 399
22 Successful Long Passes 29
12 Key Passes 5
53 Long Passes 58
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

1 Saves 2
40 Duels Won 43
14 Tackles 13
7 Interceptions 7

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 6
4 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

10 Fouls 5
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Maurizio Mariani

Starting XI ▼

16
Michele Di Gregorio
Michele Di Gregorio Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Bremer
Bremer Defender
7.04
6
Lloyd Kelly
Lloyd Kelly Defender
6.93
15
Pierre Kalulu
Pierre Kalulu Defender
7.02
2
Emil Holm
Emil Holm Midfielder
6.81
19
Khéphren Thuram
Khéphren Thuram
Midfielder46'
7.05
5
Manuel Locatelli
Manuel Locatelli Midfielder
7.41
22
Weston McKennie
Weston McKennie Midfielder
7
27
Andrea Cambiaso
Andrea Cambiaso Midfielder
7.02
4
Federico Gatti
Federico Gatti
Defender80'
6.8
7
Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição Attacker
7.02
11
Edon Zhegrova
Edon Zhegrova
Attacker72'
6.76
13
Jérémie Boga
Jérémie Boga Attacker
7.2
30
Jonathan David
Jonathan David Attacker
6.75
10
Kenan Yıldız
Kenan Yıldız
Attacker72'
7.5
Referee : Maurizio Mariani

Starting XI ▼

13
Federico Ravaglia
Federico Ravaglia Goalkeeper
6.83
5
Eivind Helland
Eivind Helland Defender
6.69
14
Torbjørn Heggem
Torbjørn Heggem
Defender68'
6.7
20
Nadir Zortea
Nadir Zortea Defender
6.67
26
Jhon Lucumí
Jhon Lucumí Defender
6.86
33
Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda Defender
7.14
4
Tommaso Pobega
Tommaso Pobega Midfielder
6.7
6
Nikola Moro
Nikola Moro
Midfielder58'
7.02
8
Remo Freuler
Remo Freuler Midfielder
6.8
23
Simon Sohm
Simon Sohm Midfielder
6.69
19
Lewis Ferguson
Lewis Ferguson
Midfielder59'
6.73
7
Riccardo Orsolini
Riccardo Orsolini Attacker
6.96
9
Santiago Castro
Santiago Castro Attacker
6.91
10
Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi
Attacker77'
6.87
28
Nicolò Cambiaghi
Nicolò Cambiaghi Attacker
6.84
11
Jonathan Rowe
Jonathan Rowe
Attacker59'
6.8

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
10th Substitution
Event
Federico Gatti → Andrea Cambiaso
9th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Federico Bernardeschi → Santiago Castro
8th Substitution
Event
Kenan Yıldız → Jonathan David
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Edon Zhegrova → Francisco Conceição
7th Substitution
72'
68'
Event
Torbjørn Heggem → Eivind Helland
5th Substitution
Event
Manuel Locatelli
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
60'
59'
Event
Jonathan Rowe → Nicolò Cambiaghi
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Lewis Ferguson → Simon Sohm
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Nikola Moro → Tommaso Pobega
2nd Substitution
Event
Khéphren Thuram
Header / 2nd Goal
57'
Event
Khéphren Thuram → Emil Holm
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jonathan David
Header / 1st Goal
2'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half ends with Juventus leading Bologna 2-0.
90
Update Update
Loïs Openda fouled a Juventus player.
90
Update Update
Lewis Ferguson of Bologna won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
87
Update Update
Edon Zhegrova of Juventus commits a handball.
86
Update Update
Edon Zhegrova commits a handball for Juventus.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Loïs Openda replaces Jérémie Boga.
84
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Federico Bernardeschi of Bologna.
83
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Moro from Bologna had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but the shot went high. Riccardo Orsolini provided the assist.
82
Attempt Attempt
Riccardo Orsolini's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Nikola Moro.
81
Update Update
Khéphren Thuram of Juventus won a free kick in an attacking position.
81
Update Update
Nikola Moro fouled a player from Bologna.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Federico Gatti replaces Andrea Cambiaso.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Federico Bernardeschi replaces Santiago Castro.
76
Attempt Attempt
Edon Zhegrova's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Khéphren Thuram.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Edon Zhegrova replaces Francisco Conceição.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Kenan Yildiz replaces Jonathan David.
70
Corner Corner
Juventus win a corner after Juan Miranda concedes.
70
Update Update
Handball by Jhon Lucumí of Bologna.
69
Corner Corner
Bremer from Juventus had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box after a corner.
69
Corner Corner
Bremer from Juventus had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box but it went to the left. The assist came from Francisco Conceição, who delivered a cross following a corner.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Torbjørn Heggem replaces Eivind Helland due to injury.
67
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Eivind Helland of Bologna.
66
Update Update
Offside called against Juventus. Jonathan David is offside.
63
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Ferguson's shot for Bologna from outside the box is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Rowe from Bologna hits the left post with a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box on the left side. The assist was provided by Nadir Zortea.
60
Update Update
Remo Freuler from Bologna won a free kick in defense.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Jonathan David against Juventus.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Manuel Locatelli of Juventus.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Manuel Locatelli of Juventus receives a yellow card for a foul.
60
Update Update
Jhon Lucumí of Bologna won a free kick in defense.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Lewis Ferguson replaces Simon Sohm.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Jonathan Rowe replaces Nicolò Cambiaghi.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Nikola Moro replaces Tommaso Pobega.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Juventus lead 2-0 against Bologna. Khéphren Thuram scores with a header from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Weston McKennie's cross.
57
Update Update
Goal! Juventus leads 2-0 after Khéphren Thuram scores with a header from the center of the box.
56
Update Update
Juan Miranda from Bologna won a free kick in defense.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Weston McKennie of Juventus.
54
Update Update
Offside called against Juventus. Jonathan David is offside.
51
Update Update
Riccardo Orsolini from Bologna won a free kick on the right wing.
51
Update Update
Foul by Andrea Cambiaso of Juventus.
47
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Riccardo Orsolini from Bologna took a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
45
Corner Corner
Bologna wins a corner after Weston McKennie concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Riccardo Orsolini from Bologna had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Juventus leading Bologna 1-0.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Juventus 1, Bologna 0.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Weston McKennie of Juventus.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Khéphren Thuram replaces Emil Holm.
45
Update Update
Remo Freuler from Bologna won a free kick in defense.
43
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan David had a missed chance for Juventus, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but it went close and missed to the left. The assist came from Francisco Conceição with a through ball.
42
Corner Corner
Juventus win a corner after Juan Miranda concedes.
38
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Conceição's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Weston McKennie.
36
Corner Corner
Juventus win a corner after Eivind Helland concedes.
34
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Francisco Conceição from Juventus shot with his left foot from outside the box but missed. The assist came from Andrea Cambiaso.
33
Attempt Attempt
Emil Holm from Juventus hits the bar with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Andrea Cambiaso of Juventus.
30
Update Update
Simon Sohm from Bologna won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Andrea Cambiaso of Juventus won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Nadir Zortea commits a foul against Bologna.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Weston McKennie of Juventus.
27
Update Update
Nicolò Cambiaghi from Bologna won a free kick in an attacking position.
25
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Bremer of Juventus heads the ball from the right side of the box, but it is saved by Bologna's goalkeeper Federico Ravaglia in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Manuel Locatelli.
25
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Locatelli's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
23
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Francisco Conceição of Juventus shoots with his left foot from the right side of the box, but Federico Ravaglia of Bologna saves it in the left corner. The assist was provided by Manuel Locatelli.
23
Corner Corner
Juventus win a corner after Federico Ravaglia concedes.
23
Update Update
Emil Holm of Juventus won a free kick in an attacking position.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Simon Sohm of Bologna.
14
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Tommaso Pobega from Bologna took a left-footed shot from outside the box that was close but missed. The assist was by Simon Sohm.
12
Update Update
Offside called against Juventus. Francisco Conceição is in an offside position.
7
Update Update
Offside called against Juventus. Jonathan David is offside.
6
Update Update
Nicolò Cambiaghi from Bologna won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Pierre Kalulu against Juventus.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Riccardo Orsolini of Bologna.
4
Update Update
Emil Holm of Juventus won a free kick in defense.
2
Update Update
Weston McKennie's header from close range is blocked. The assist came from Lloyd Kelly.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Juventus leads Bologna 1-0. Jonathan David scores for Juventus with a header from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Pierre Kalulu's cross following a corner.
1
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Conceição's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Manuel Locatelli.
1
Corner Corner
Juventus win a corner after Tommaso Pobega concedes.

CONCLUSION

Juventus' 2-0 triumph over Bologna highlighted their superiority, blending possession control and precise scoring without concessions. The significant structural deviation of 35.3% underscored an amplified performance level, while alignment with pre-match evaluations at 64.7% win probability validated expectations. Lacking xG metrics or disruptive events like red cards, the match reflected straightforward dominance. Bologna's efforts yielded no breakthroughs, emphasizing Juventus' tactical discipline. This victory strengthens their standing and sets a positive trajectory ahead.

Juventus vs Bologna preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.