RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Red Bull Arena Sat, 7 Mar - 2:30 PM
Bundesliga
RB Leipzig RBL
2 Winner 1
FC Augsburg FCA
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 2:30 PM
Yan Diomande - 76'
Arthur Chaves - 90+2' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Robin Fellhauer - 39'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. RB Leipzig 2–1 FC Augsburg. The result saw RB Leipzig take the points. RB Leipzig showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 61%–39%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: RB Leipzig showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Petersen
M. Petersen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
R. Wessel
R. Wessel
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
D. Schaal
D. Schaal
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
F. Lechner
F. Lechner
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
RB Leipzig O. Werner
O. Werner
VS
FC Augsburg M. Baum
M. Baum
1.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hamburger SV Rank: W
Borussia Dortmund Rank: D
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: D
FC Köln Rank: W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: L
St. Pauli Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: W
Heidenheim Rank: W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: L
St. Pauli Rank: W
FC Bayern München Rank: W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 7 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home RB Leipzig
70.14%
Draw
17.09%
Away FC Augsburg
12.78%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.67
41.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Power Score
62.67
41.33
League Position
5
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
RB Leipzig — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Augsburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) RB Leipzig FC Augsburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

RB Leipzig

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Augsburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

RB Leipzig ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Augsburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.10
45.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.90
34.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
RB Leipzig -1.12 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Augsburg +1.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

RB Leipzig ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Augsburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
RB Leipzig FC Augsburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
RB Leipzig FC Augsburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

RB Leipzig RBL Home
11 matches
FC Augsburg FCA Away
Match Record
7
Wins
0
4
Draws
4
0
Losses
7
Goals
30
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
30
+21
Goal Difference
-21
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:05:41+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium
Red Bull Arena
Capacity
47069
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Martin Petersen
Robert Edgar Wessel
Dominik Schaal
Florian Lechner

Statistics

Possession
RBL
60%
FCA
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 6
4 Shots 3
76 Dangerous attacks 38
61 Possession 39
6 Corners 8
9 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

15 Successful Headers 17
19 Dribble Attempts 8
17 Throwins 15
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
8 Goal Kicks 12
12 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Goal Attempts 4
50 Ball Safe 46
0 Penalties 1
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

132 Attacks 56
3 Big Chances Missed 5

Possession

48 Long Passes 55
478 Successful Passes 263
16 Key Passes 12
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
554 Passes 341
26 Successful Long Passes 27
86 Successful Passes Percentage 77

Defensive

8 Tackles 13
4 Saves 7
3 Interceptions 4

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 21
6 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

8 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 4

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tidiam Gomis → Yan Diomande
10th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Arthur Chaves
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
90+2'
85'
Event
Michael Gregoritsch → Rodrigo Ribeiro
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Tim Schnitzer → Noahkai Banks
9th Substitution
78'
Event
Dimitrios Giannoulis
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Elvis Rexhbecaj → Kristijan Jakic
7th Substitution
Event
Yan Diomande
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
76'
Event
Conrad Harder → Rômulo
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Benjamin Henrichs → Ridle Baku
6th Substitution
74'
72'
Event
Marius Wolf → Robin Fellhauer
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Noahkai Banks
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Johan Bakayoko → Antonio Nusa
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Ezechiel Banzuzi → Brajan Gruda
3rd Substitution
61'
46'
Event
Anton Kade → Mert Kömür
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Robin Fellhauer
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
23'
Event
Keven Schlotterbeck
GoalkeeperSave
21'
Event
Mert Kömür
Penalty awarded

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Johan Bakayoko from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Conrad Harder from RB Leipzig has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Finn Dahmen from FC Augsburg had a header from just a few meters out that narrowly went wide to the left. The assist came from Marius Wolf following a corner kick.
90
Update Update
Offside call against FC Augsburg. Michael Gregoritsch has been caught offside.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Arthur Chaves of FC Augsburg accidentally scored an own goal, bringing the score to RB Leipzig 2, FC Augsburg 1.
90
Update Update
Keven Schlotterbeck from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to FC Augsburg after Benjamin Henrichs allowed the ball to go out.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Tidiam Gomis comes on to replace Yan Diomande.
90
Update Update
Johan Bakayoko from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with RB Leipzig securing a 2-1 victory over FC Augsburg.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Marius Wolf of FC Augsburg attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Fabian Rieder, who delivered a cross.
88
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Dimitrios Giannoulis of FC Augsburg attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner kick.
88
Update Update
Conrad Harder from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
88
Update Update
Keven Schlotterbeck of FC Augsburg was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Augsburg after David Raum allowed the ball to go out.
87
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Anton Kade from FC Augsburg heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Dimitrios Giannoulis, who delivered a cross.
86
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Conrad Harder from RB Leipzig takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Michael Gregoritsch comes on to replace Rodrigo Ribeiro.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Tim Schnitzer comes on to replace Noahkai Banks.
84
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Benjamin Henrichs from RB Leipzig takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly misses the top right corner of the goal. The assist came from Ezechiel Banzuzi.
83
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Ribeiro from FC Augsburg strikes the left post with a right-footed shot taken from the center of the penalty area. The opportunity was set up by Fabian Rieder during a quick counterattack.
79
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Conrad Harder.
78
Update Update
Johan Bakayoko from RB Leipzig earned a free kick on the right flank.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dimitrios Giannoulis from FC Augsburg has been shown a yellow card.
78
Update Update
Dimitrios Giannoulis from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Elvis Rexhbeçaj replaces Kristijan Jakic.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg. Yan Diomande scores for RB Leipzig with a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
74
Update Update
Arthur Chaves from FC Augsburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
Ezechiel Banzuzi from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Conrad Harder replaces Rômulo.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Benjamin Henrichs comes on to replace Ridle Baku.
73
Update Update
Keven Schlotterbeck of FC Augsburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Update Update
Christoph Baumgartner from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Marius Wolf comes on to replace Robin Fellhauer.
72
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Rômulo from RB Leipzig takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box. However, Finn Dahmen of FC Augsburg makes a great save, pushing the ball to the left corner. The assist came from Christoph Baumgartner.
71
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
71
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Fabian Rieder from FC Augsburg.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after Robin Fellhauer allowed the ball to go out.
68
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from David Raum.
66
Corner Corner
Castello Lukeba of RB Leipzig heads the ball from inside the six-yard box, striking the left post. The opportunity was set up by David Raum, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after a deflection off Keven Schlotterbeck.
64
Update Update
Offside call against FC Augsburg. Kristijan Jakic is caught in an offside position.
62
Update Update
Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noahkai Banks from FC Augsburg has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
62
Update Update
Noahkai Banks from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
62
Update Update
Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
62
Update Update
Noahkai Banks from FC Augsburg has been awarded a free kick in their defensive area.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Ezechiel Banzuzi comes on to replace Brajan Gruda.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Johan Bakayoko comes on to replace Antonio Nusa.
61
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Arthur Chaves from FC Augsburg attempted a header from the center of the box, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Fabian Rieder, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
60
Corner Corner
Another offensive push. Anton Kade from FC Augsburg takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Maarten Vandevoordt of RB Leipzig makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Dimitrios Giannoulis, who delivered a cross.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Augsburg after a play that resulted in a save by Maarten Vandevoordt.
60
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push unfolds as Dimitrios Giannoulis from FC Augsburg takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. However, the attempt is thwarted by goalkeeper Maarten Vandevoordt of RB Leipzig, who makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Anton Kade.
57
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Rodrigo Ribeiro from FC Augsburg took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Fabian Rieder, who delivered a precise cross.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Augsburg after Castello Lukeba allowed the ball to go out.
56
Update Update
Christoph Baumgartner from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
56
Update Update
Finn Dahmen from FC Augsburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Update Update
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Willi Orbán from RB Leipzig heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but Finn Dahmen, the goalkeeper for FC Augsburg, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The opportunity was set up by David Raum, who delivered a precise cross.
55
Update Update
Anton Kade from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
55
Update Update
David Raum from RB Leipzig earned a free kick in an offensive position.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Augsburg after a foul by Willi Orbán.
52
Update Update
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Willi Orbán from RB Leipzig heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but Finn Dahmen from FC Augsburg makes a great save, diving to his right. The assist came from David Raum, who delivered a precise cross.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after Finn Dahmen allowed the ball to go out.
50
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rômulo from RB Leipzig fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Brajan Gruda.
50
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort unfolds as Christoph Baumgartner from RB Leipzig takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it’s expertly stopped by goalkeeper Finn Dahmen of FC Augsburg, who is positioned centrally in the goal.
49
Update Update
Offside call against FC Augsburg. Rodrigo Ribeiro is caught in an offside position.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Augsburg after Willi Orbán allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
Offside call against FC Augsburg. Keven Schlotterbeck is caught in an offside position.
45
Update Update
Han-Noah Massengo from FC Augsburg earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Kristijan Jakic from FC Augsburg took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Fabian Rieder.
45
Update Update
Brajan Gruda from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Anton Kade replaces Mert Kömür.
45
Update Update
Willi Orbán from RB Leipzig earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Rodrigo Ribeiro from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at RB Leipzig 0, FC Augsburg 1.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score reading RB Leipzig 0, FC Augsburg 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
44
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Rômulo of RB Leipzig attempts a header from the center of the box, but it narrowly misses the top left corner. The assist came from David Raum, who delivered a cross.
43
Update Update
Robin Fellhauer from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
43
Update Update
Antonio Nusa from RB Leipzig was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Augsburg takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against RB Leipzig. Robin Fellhauer scores with a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, finding the center of the net. The assist comes from Fabian Rieder.
38
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! David Raum from RB Leipzig took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The assist came from Nicolas Seiwald.
37
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Rodrigo Ribeiro from FC Augsburg attempts a right-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it’s blocked. The assist came from Fabian Rieder.
37
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Han-Noah Massengo of FC Augsburg takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. However, Maarten Vandevoordt, the goalkeeper for RB Leipzig, makes a solid save right in the center of the goal.
29
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, the effort is halted by FC Augsburg's goalkeeper, Finn Dahmen, who makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this play comes from Christoph Baumgartner.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after Finn Dahmen allowed the ball to go out of play.
28
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as David Raum from RB Leipzig takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Finn Dahmen of FC Augsburg makes a great save, denying the attempt in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Antonio Nusa.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after Keven Schlotterbeck allowed the ball to go out.
24
Update Update
Christoph Baumgartner from RB Leipzig earned a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Mert Kömür from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
24
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Rodrigo Ribeiro of FC Augsburg had a header from inside the six-yard box, positioned on the left side, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Mert Kömür, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
23
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to FC Augsburg after Maarten Vandevoordt allowed the ball to go out of play.
23
Corner Corner
Penalty denied! Keven Schlotterbeck from FC Augsburg took a left-footed shot, but Maarten Vandevoordt of RB Leipzig made a fantastic save, stopping it in the left corner.
21
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty awarded to FC Augsburg.
20
Update Update
Christoph Baumgartner of RB Leipzig has given away a penalty due to a handball in the box.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Augsburg after a foul by Castello Lukeba.
19
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Mert Kömür from FC Augsburg takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
15
Update Update
Rodrigo Ribeiro from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Willi Orbán from RB Leipzig was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Update Update
Offside call against RB Leipzig. Yan Diomande has been caught in an offside position.
5
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Christoph Baumgartner of RB Leipzig attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area...
5
Update Update
Noahkai Banks from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Antonio Nusa from RB Leipzig was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
2
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. David Raum from RB Leipzig takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Antonio Nusa.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after a play that resulted in a deflection off Arthur Chaves.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: RB Leipzig exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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