Derby County vs Oxford United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Pride Park Stadium Sat, 18 Apr - 11:30 AM
Championship
Derby County DRB
Versus
Oxford United OXF
KICKOFF : Sat, 18 Apr - 11:30 AM
Round 43 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Derby County face Oxford United at Pride Park Stadium in a Championship Regular Season match during the 2025/2026 season. The hosts, positioned eighth in the league, boast a power score of 25.59 compared to Oxford's 23.21, granting them a 2.4 point advantage as the stronger side. Recent results show Derby suffering a loss away to Southampton, whereas Oxford claimed a home win over Watford. Form scores are identical at 50 for both sides, with Derby recording three wins in their last six games and Oxford managing two wins alongside three draws. This encounter pits a mid-table home team against a relegation-threatened away side, promising an engaging contest where Derby seek to build momentum and Oxford aim to climb away from the lower reaches of the table.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Hosts Derby County sit eighth in the table while visitors Oxford United are down in 22nd. The home side holds a clear power score advantage at Pride Park.
  • Form: Form scores are level at 50 apiece. Derby come in with three wins from six, Oxford with two wins and three draws from their last six matches.
  • Squad: Limited squad information available, yet Derby's higher standing implies a stronger overall group capable of challenging effectively.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for this matchup. Reliance falls on power scores showing Derby as the stronger outfit.
  • Transition: Transition metrics not detailed, but the power advantage of 2.4 points hints at Derby's superior ability to switch play quickly.
  • Set pieces: Set piece insights are of low confidence using proxy data. No standout advantages evident for either Derby or Oxford.
  • xVariable: xVariable remains neutral given the even form scores, though league position favors Derby in this home fixture.
  • Market: Derby County 49.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.6% (Δ+0%) | Oxford United 23.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Derby County J. Eustace
J. Eustace
VS
Oxford United M. Bloomfield
M. Bloomfield
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Southampton Rank: L
Stoke City Rank: W
Coventry City Rank: L
Birmingham City Rank: W
Portsmouth Rank: W
Millwall Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Watford Rank: W
Portsmouth Rank: D
Hull City Rank: D
Southampton Rank: L
Charlton Athletic Rank: D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Derby County
49.31%
Draw
27.56%
Away Oxford United
23.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.59
23.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Derby County
Oxford United
Power Score
25.59
23.21
League Position
8
22
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Derby County — Opponent-weighted form score
Oxford United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Derby County Oxford United

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Derby County DRB Home
3 matches
Oxford United OXF Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:06:11+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
R. O'Donnell
12 R. O'Donnell
J. Ward
23 J. Ward
D. Sanderson
28 D. Sanderson
M. Clarke
5 M. Clarke
M. Johnston
22 M. Johnston
L. Travis
27 L. Travis
D. Ozoh
18 D. Ozoh
J. Banel
34 J. Banel
S. Szmodics
19 S. Szmodics
B. Clark
42 B. Clark
C. Morris
9 C. Morris
J. Cumming
1 J. Cumming
B. Spencer
15 B. Spencer
C. Brown
3 C. Brown
M. Helik
6 M. Helik
S. Long
2 S. Long
C. Brannagan
8 C. Brannagan
Y. Konak
5 Y. Konak
M. Peart-Harris
44 M. Peart-Harris
J. Donley
33 J. Donley
S. Mills
17 S. Mills
W. Lankshear
27 W. Lankshear

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 43 · Regular Season
Stadium
Pride Park Stadium
Capacity
33597
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Samuel Allison
Hristo Karaivanov
Lee Venamore
Ben Toner

Expected Lineup

Referee : Samuel Allison

Starting XI ▼

12
Richard O'Donnell
Richard O'Donnell Goalkeeper
7.01
9
Carlton Morris
Carlton Morris Centre Forward
7.05
5
Matt Clarke
Matt Clarke Left Back
7.04
19
Sammie Szmodics
Sammie Szmodics Attacking Midfield
6.88
22
Max Johnston
Max Johnston Left Back
6.67
18
David Ozoh
David Ozoh Defensive Midfield
6.58
23
Joe Ward
Joe Ward Right Back
7
34
Jaydon Banel
Jaydon Banel Right Wing
6.49
42
Bobby Clark
Bobby Clark Left Wing
6.69
27
Lewis Travis
Lewis Travis Defensive Midfield
6.98
28
Dion Sanderson
Dion Sanderson Right Back
6.67
Referee : Samuel Allison

Starting XI ▼

1
Jamie Cumming
Jamie Cumming Goalkeeper
6.83
27
Will Lankshear
Will Lankshear Centre Forward
6.66
3
Ciaron Maurice Brown
Ciaron Maurice Brown Left Back
7.01
5
Yunus Konak
Yunus Konak Defensive Midfield
6.64
6
Michal Helik
Michal Helik Right Back
6.96
15
Brodie Gilmore Spencer
Brodie Gilmore Spencer Left Back
6.68
44
Myles Peart-Harris
Myles Peart-Harris Left Wing
6.71
2
Sam Long
Sam Long Right Back
6.76
8
Cameron Brannagan
Cameron Brannagan Defensive Midfield
6.97
33
Jamie Paul Donley
Jamie Paul Donley Attacking Midfield
6.6
17
Stanley Mills
Stanley Mills Right Wing
6.72

CONCLUSION

Overall, Derby County appear well-placed to secure a positive result against Oxford United, backed by their better league position and power advantage. Although the form is evenly balanced, the home environment at Pride Park Stadium often brings out the best in the Rams. Oxford have shown some fighting spirit with their recent victory, but the gap in standings suggests they will have to work hard to earn anything from this fixture. The match could hinge on how effectively Derby convert their structural superiority into chances while limiting Oxford's counterplay. With the projection leaning towards the home side, fans can anticipate a match where Derby control proceedings but must stay alert to avoid any upset from a determined visiting team.

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