Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul)
Sat, 18 Apr - 11:30 AM
Super Lig
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
1
2
2
Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
Full Time
Sat, 18 Apr
11:30 AM
Round 30 ·
Regular Season
Serginho - 16'
|
Mateusz Legowski - 44'
Matías Kranevitter - 39' (Own Goal)
|
Anıl Yaşar 78'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Jul 10
CONTEXT
In a surprising Turkish Super Lig clash, pre-match favorites Fatih Karagümrük suffered a 1-2 defeat at home to Eyüpspor, despite controlling 62% possession and entering as the stronger team. Eyüpspor struck twice before halftime to lead 2-1, showcasing clinical finishing against the run of play. The second half saw Eyüpspor reduced to 10 men after a red card, yet they resiliently defended their lead while Fatih Karagümrük pushed forward without equalizing. This outcome represented a significant structural deviation, with Eyüpspor defying expectations where they held just a minor pre-match share. Possession dominance failed to translate into goals for the hosts, highlighting Eyüpspor's efficiency in key moments. The red card introduced distortion, but the visitors' organization held firm, securing a valuable away win that underscores football's unpredictability.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Eyüpspor's victory marked a 77.1% significant deviation from pre-match structural expectations favoring Fatih Karagümrük.
-
Efficiency shift: Both teams operated in line with efficiency norms given possession and scoring patterns.
-
xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing direct alignment assessment with actual goals.
-
Market alignment: Result diverged from pre-match market positioning, where home win was prominent.
-
xG expectations: Without xG figures, expectations relative to chance quality remain undetermined.
-
Event impact: Eyüpspor's red card altered dynamics but did not prevent their win.
-
Red card distortion: Second-half red card to Eyüpspor created defensive pressure they withstood successfully.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
C. Aydın
•
25 matches in sample
Avg. cards
0.12
0.12
Fouls / match
0.52
Yellow cards / match
0.12
Red cards / match
0
Penalties / match
0
Other match officials
G. Barcın
1st Assistant
K. İlitangil
2nd Assistant
M. Metoğlu
4th Official
A. Stanojević
VS
A. Gerin
0.81
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.81
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Konyaspor
Rank:
L
Rizespor
Rank:
W
Kayserispor
Rank:
L
Fenerbahçe
Rank:
W
Gaziantep F.K.
Rank:
D
Trabzonspor
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Samsunspor
Rank:
L
Antalyaspor
Rank:
L
Trabzonspor
Rank:
L
Kasımpaşa
Rank:
L
Kocaelispor
Rank:
L
Göztepe
Rank:
D
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Fatih Karagümrük
49.44%
Draw
27.63%
Eyüpspor
22.92%
Movement
Changes since opening
Fatih Karagümrük
+49.25%
Draw
+21.98%
Eyüpspor
-71.24%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.67
13.11
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fatih Karagümrük
Eyüpspor
Power Score
20.67
13.11
League Position
18
16
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Fatih Karagümrük
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Eyüpspor
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Fatih Karagümrük Eyüpspor
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Fatih Karagümrük
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Eyüpspor
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Fatih Karagümrük
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Eyüpspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.34
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Fatih Karagümrük
+0.49
Efficiency Index
vs
Eyüpspor
-0.49
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fatih Karagümrük
Eyüpspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Fatih Karagümrük
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Eyüpspor
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Fatih Karagümrük
Eyüpspor
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Fatih Karagümrük
Eyüpspor
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fatih Karagümrük
Eyüpspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Eyüpspor
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Fatih Karagümrük
Eyüpspor
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Fatih Karagümrük
0.20
Eyüpspor
0.22
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fatih Karagümrük
Eyüpspor
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Fatih Karagümrük
0.07
Eyüpspor
0.02
Fatih Karagümrük
Eyüpspor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- Fatih Karagümrük had peak pressure around 82'.
- Eyüpspor started the game with stronger pressure.
Fatih Karagümrük Pressure
Eyüpspor Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
Fatih Karagümrük reached the top pressure at 82' (78.54).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
Home
1
matches
Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:02:16+00:00
STARTING XI
Fatih Karagümrük
Eyüpspor
Match Formation
4-4-2
Match Formation
4-4-2
13 I. Grbić
47 R. Sousa Esgaio
4 D. Biraschi
3 I. Lichnovsky Osorio
25 F. Mladenović
B. Kalayci
#7261'
10 D. Verde
5 C. Kranevitter
B. Özcan
#861'
6 B. Elmaz
T. Cukur
#2133'
80 W. Shavy
23 S. Larsson
70 S. Da Luiz Junior
24 J. Yılmaz
77 C. Meraş
16 S. Yaşar
4 L. Claro dos Santos
J. Onguéné
#6880'
2 L. Calegari
B. Özyurt
#580'
15 C. Raux Yao
55 B. Gezek
L. Pintor
#2368'
28 T. İlter
T. Ulvan
#1780'
26 M. Altunbaş
A. Khadre Sy
#2590+2'
19 U. Bozok
20 M. Łęgowski
General Information
📅
Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 11:30 AM
🏆
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 30 · Regular Season
🏟️
Stadium :
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul)
👥
Capacity :
76092
🌱
Pitch Surface :
N/A
🌤️
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️
Referees :
Gökhan Barcın
Kerem İlitangil
Muhammet Ali Metoğlu
C. Aydın
Next Match
Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Beşiktaş
League: Super Lig
Kickoff: Mon, 27 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Beşiktaş Park
Eyüpspor
vs
Gaziantep F.K.
League: Super Lig
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 11:30 AM
Venue: Eyüp Stadı
Statistics
Possession
Fatih Karagümrük
59%
Eyüpspor
41%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
2
1
Big Chances Created
0
12
Shots
6
60
Dangerous attacks
27
62
Possession
38
6
Corners
5
12
Free kicks
14
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
5
Goal Kicks
11
36
Successful Dribbles Percentage
38
23
Throwins
9
13
Successful Headers
14
5
Successful Dribbles
6
14
Dribble Attempts
16
1
Assists
1
3
Substitutions
5
75
Ball Safe
84
2
Injuries
1
7
Goal Attempts
6
0
Hit Woodwork
1
Attacking
141
Attacks
62
Possession
65
Long Passes
60
35
Successful Long Passes
19
497
Passes
320
81
Successful Passes Percentage
76
404
Successful Passes
243
54
Successful Long Passes Percentage
32
9
Key Passes
5
Defensive
20
Tackles
13
3
Saves
2
50
Duels Won
47
9
Interceptions
16
Build-up
8
Accurate Crosses
3
33
Total Crosses
11
Discipline
14
Fouls
12
3
Offsides
2
Lineup
Fatih Karagümrük
Referee :
C. Aydın
Manager ▼
A. Stanojević
Coach
Starting XI ▼
13
Ivo Grbic
Goalkeeper
7.02 3
Igor Lichnovsky
Defender
6.9 4
Davide Biraschi
Defender
6.48 25
Filip Mladenovic
Defender
6.83 47
Ricardo Esgaio
Defender
6.49 5
Matías Kranevitter
Midfielder
6
Bartuğ Elmaz
Midfielder
6.82 8Berkay Özcan
6.68Midfielder61'
10
Daniele Verde
Midfielder
7.11 72Barış Kalaycı
6.68Attacker61'
80
Shavy Babicka
Midfielder
6.66 21Tiago Çukur
6.67Attacker33'
23
Sam Larsson
Attacker
6.93 70
Serginho
Attacker
Substitutes ▼
21Tiago Çukur
6.67Attacker33'
8Berkay Özcan
6.68Midfielder61'
72Barış Kalaycı
6.68Attacker61'
Bench ▼
99
Furkan Bekleviç
Goalkeeper
22
Fatih Kurucuk
Defender
6.49 32
Muhammed Kadıoğlu
Defender
6.38 33
Çağtay Kurukalıp
Defender
6.78 94
Anıl Yiğit Çınar
Defender
6.75 24
Burhan Ersoy
Midfielder
88
Ahmed Traore
Attacker
6.55
Eyüpspor
Referee :
C. Aydın
Manager ▼
A. Gerin
Coach
Starting XI ▼
24
Jankat Yılmaz
Goalkeeper
7.12
2
Calegari
Defender
6.78 68Jérôme Onguene
6.62Defender80'
4
Luccas Claro
Defender
6.75 16
Anıl Yaşar
Defender
6.59
77
Umut Meraş
Defender
6.68 15
Charles-Andre Raux Yao
Midfielder
6.72 5Bedirhan Özyurt
6.58Defender80'
26
Metehan Altunbaş
Midfielder
6.88 17Talha Ülvan
6.77Defender80'
28
Taşkın İlter
Midfielder
6.66
23Lenny Pintor
Attacker68'
6.73
55
Baran Gezek
Midfielder
6.8 19
Umut Bozok
Attacker
6.72 25Abdou Khadre Sy
6.55Attacker90+2'
20
Mateusz Legowski
Attacker
Substitutes ▼
23Lenny Pintor
Attacker68'
6.73
17Talha Ülvan
6.77Defender80'
68Jérôme Onguene
6.62Defender80'
5Bedirhan Özyurt
6.58Defender80'
25Abdou Khadre Sy
6.55Attacker90+2'
Bench ▼
1
Marcos Felipe
Goalkeeper
6.92 14
Diabel Ndoye
Defender
42
Berhan Kutlay Şatlı
Defender
88
A. Yavuz
Defender
6.93 27
Ismaïla Manga
Midfielder
6.44
Events
2ND-HALF
90+2'
Lenny Pintor
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+2'
Abdou Khadre Sy → Umut Bozok
8th Substitution
85'
Jankat Yılmaz
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
Talha Ülvan → Metehan Altunbaş
7th Substitution
80'
Jérôme Onguene → Calegari
5th Substitution
80'
Bedirhan Özyurt → Charles-Andre Raux Yao
6th Substitution
78'
Anıl Yaşar
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
77'
Anıl Yaşar
Card adjusted
68'
Lenny Pintor → Taşkın İlter
4th Substitution
Berkay Özcan → Bartuğ Elmaz
3rd Substitution
61'
Barış Kalaycı → Daniele Verde
2nd Substitution
61'
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Taşkın İlter
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
44'
Mateusz Legowski
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
39'
Matías Kranevitter
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Tiago Çukur → Shavy Babicka
1st Substitution
33'
Serginho
Header / 1st Goal
16'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Eyüpspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.
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Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.