Mantova vs Avellino Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Danilo Martelli Sat, 18 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Mantova MAN
Versus
Avellino AVE
KICKOFF : Sat, 18 Apr - 1:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the heart of Serie B's regular season, Mantova prepare to welcome Avellino to the Stadio Danilo Martelli. Currently positioned 11th in the standings, the home side hold a slight edge over their 13th-placed opponents according to power scores. Fresh from a victory on the road against Spezia, Mantova display solid momentum with a 72.22 form rating. Avellino, meanwhile, secured a draw in their previous encounter at home to Catanzaro but trail in form with 55.56. This matchup promises tactical battles as the stronger Mantova side seeks to capitalize on home advantage. Players on both teams will aim to impose their styles in what looks to be a closely contested affair between two mid-table outfits. Expectations are high for an engaging contest full of competitive spirit. Additional factors include the recent form records indicating Mantova have collected points consistently while Avellino have shown inconsistency on the road. The atmosphere at Stadio Danilo Martelli is expected to be vibrant, potentially inspiring the home team to dictate the tempo from the outset.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Home advantage at Stadio Danilo Martelli sees Mantova slightly ahead in power metrics against mid-table rivals.
  • Form: Recent performances favor Mantova strongly after their away success, contrasting Avellino's mixed results including a home draw.
  • Squad: Available squad assessments give Mantova the nod with a higher power score, though detailed lineups remain key.
  • Efficiency: Current efficiency readings lack depth from available statistics, pointing toward a need for on-pitch execution.
  • Transition: Effective transitions from defence to attack will likely play a prominent role for the home team seeking control.
  • Set pieces: Reliance on set pieces shows low confidence metrics for both participants, highlighting an area for potential exploitation.
  • xVariable: Uncertain xVariable factors emerge due to absent xG information, adding intrigue to tactical preparations.
  • Market: Mantova 42.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 30.1% (Δ+0%) | Avellino 27.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
VS
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: W
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Modena Rank: L
Cesena Rank: W
Empoli Rank: D
Juve Stabia Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: D
Palermo Rank: L
Sampdoria Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: W
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Calcio Padova Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 4 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mantova
42.14%
Draw
30.05%
Away Avellino
27.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.24
23.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mantova
Avellino
Power Score
26.24
23.65
League Position
11
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mantova Avellino

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mantova MAN Home
7 matches
Avellino AVE Away
Match Record
3
Wins
0
4
Draws
4
0
Losses
3
Goals
8
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
8
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:07:18+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
F. Bardi
24 F. Bardi
A. Dembélé
3 A. Dembélé
A. Castellini
27 A. Castellini
S. Cella
29 S. Cella
T. Maggioni
96 T. Maggioni
D. Wieser
10 D. Wieser
R. Kouda
80 R. Kouda
F. Benaissa-Yahia
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
D. Bragantini
30 D. Bragantini
F. Ruocco
19 F. Ruocco
D. Mensah
7 D. Mensah
A. Iannarilli
1 A. Iannarilli
M. Sala
3 M. Sala
P. Enrici
56 P. Enrici
L. Šimić
44 L. Šimić
T. Cancellotti
29 T. Cancellotti
D. Sounas
24 D. Sounas
L. Palmiero
6 L. Palmiero
J. Kumi
16 J. Kumi
M. Palumbo
20 M. Palumbo
R. Russo
10 R. Russo
T. Biasci
14 T. Biasci

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Capacity
7487
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
6.61
19
Francesco Ruocco
Francesco Ruocco Midfielder
6.89
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder
6.82
96
Tommaso Maggioni
Tommaso Maggioni Midfielder
6.65
30
Davide Bragantini
Davide Bragantini Midfielder
6.99
7
Davis Mensah
Davis Mensah Centre Forward
6.71
10
David Wieser
David Wieser Central Midfield
6.61
27
Alessio Castellini
Alessio Castellini Centre Back
7.03
80
Rachid Kouda
Rachid Kouda Central Midfield
6.97
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Right Back
6.76
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Left Back
6.8

Starting XI ▼

1
Antony Iannarilli
Antony Iannarilli Goalkeeper
6.72
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo Attacker
6.8
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci Attacker
6.95
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Central Midfield
6.79
44
Lorenco Simic
Lorenco Simic Right Back
6.96
56
Patrick Enrici
Patrick Enrici Left Back
6.67
3
Marco Sala
Marco Sala Left Back
6.77
16
Justin Kumi
Justin Kumi Central Midfield
6.62
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Attacking Midfield
6.85
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Central Midfield
6.94
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Right Back
6.67

CONCLUSION

Mantova appear well-placed to secure a positive result thanks to their better form and home setting. Success hinges on maintaining the intensity shown in the win at Spezia. For Avellino, securing a draw would represent a solid achievement on their travels. Coaches will focus on exploiting any weaknesses during transitions and set plays. Throughout the match, individual performances may rise above team structures to influence the final scoreline. This encounter carries importance for both as they navigate the competitive landscape of Serie B. Improved efficiency in front of goal could prove the difference between the sides.

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