TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
PreZero Arena Tomorrow - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim TSG
Versus
Borussia Dortmund BVB
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 1:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season

CONTEXT

TSG Hoffenheim host Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at PreZero Arena. Domestically, TSG Hoffenheim sit 6th in the table while Borussia Dortmund are 2th. Power ranking favours Borussia Dortmund by 12.6 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Borussia Dortmund enjoys a 12.6-point power advantage and sits 2nd compared to TSG Hoffenheim's 6th in the Bundesliga.
  • Form: Dortmund's form score of 28.72 significantly outpaces Hoffenheim's 7.11.
  • Squad: Dortmund's higher power score and league standing highlight superior squad depth and quality.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable due to lack of detailed data for both teams.
  • Transition: Dortmund's power edge positions them to dominate transitions against Hoffenheim.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece analysis shows low confidence with proxy data used for both sides, no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, limiting advanced variable analysis for the matchup.
  • Market: TSG Hoffenheim 37.8% (Δ+0.2%) | Draw 24.1% (Δ+0%) | Borussia Dortmund 38.2% (Δ-0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
TSG Hoffenheim C. Ilzer
C. Ilzer
VS
Borussia Dortmund N. Kovač
N. Kovač
1.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.17
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Augsburg Rank: D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: D
Heidenheim Rank: W
St. Pauli Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: W
Hamburger SV Rank: W
FC Augsburg Rank: W
FC Köln Rank: W
FC Bayern München Rank: L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 11 - 16
16
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home TSG Hoffenheim
37.75%
Draw
24.05%
Away Borussia Dortmund
38.21%

Movement

Changes since opening
TSG Hoffenheim
+0.16%
Draw
+0.01%
Borussia Dortmund
-0.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.51
34.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
TSG Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund
Power Score
21.51
34.15
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
TSG Hoffenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
Borussia Dortmund — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) TSG Hoffenheim Borussia Dortmund

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

TSG Hoffenheim TSG Home
35 matches
Borussia Dortmund BVB Away
Match Record
8
Wins
16
11
Draws
11
16
Losses
8
Goals
50
Goals Scored
57
57
Goals Conceded
50
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T00:07:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
O. Baumann
Germany
1 O. Baumann
V. Coufal
Czech Republic
34 V. Coufal
R. Hranáč
Czech Republic
2 R. Hranáč
O. Kabak
Turkey
5 O. Kabak
A. Hajdari
Switzerland
21 A. Hajdari
G. Prömel
Germany
6 G. Prömel
L. Avdullahu
Switzerland
7 L. Avdullahu
A. Kramarić
Croatia
27 A. Kramarić
T. Lemperle
Germany
19 T. Lemperle
F. Asllani
Germany
11 F. Asllani
B. Touré
Ivory Coast
29 B. Touré
G. Kobel
Switzerland
1 G. Kobel
R. Bensebaini
Algeria
5 R. Bensebaini
N. Süle
Germany
25 N. Süle
W. Anton
Germany
3 W. Anton
D. Svensson
Sweden
24 D. Svensson
M. Sabitzer
Austria
20 M. Sabitzer
J. Bellingham
England
7 J. Bellingham
J. Ryerson
Norway
26 J. Ryerson
F. Soares Silva
Portugal
21 F. Soares Silva
J. Brandt
Germany
10 J. Brandt
S. Guirassy
Guinea
9 S. Guirassy

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
PreZero Arena
Capacity
30150
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jan Seidel
Rafael Foltyn
Tobias Reichel
Daniel Siebert

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Baumann
Oliver Baumann Goalkeeper
6.78
2
Robin Hranac
Robin Hranac Defender
6.75
5
Ozan Kabak
Ozan Kabak Defender
7
21
Albian Hajdari
Albian Hajdari Defender
6.92
34
Vladimír Coufal
Vladimír Coufal Defender
7.07
6
Grischa Prömel
Grischa Prömel Midfielder
6.91
7
Leon Avdullahu
Leon Avdullahu Midfielder
6.89
27
Andrej Kramaric
Andrej Kramaric Midfielder
7.15
11
Fisnik Asllani
Fisnik Asllani Attacker
7.03
19
Tim Lemperle
Tim Lemperle Attacker
6.91
29
Bazoumana Touré
Bazoumana Touré Attacker
6.93
Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

1
Gregor Kobel
Gregor Kobel Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Waldemar Anton
Waldemar Anton Defender
7.05
5
Ramy Bensebaini
Ramy Bensebaini Defender
7.09
24
Daniel Svensson
Daniel Svensson Defender
6.86
25
Niklas Süle
Niklas Süle Defender
6.74
26
Julian Ryerson
Julian Ryerson Defender
7.02
7
Jobe Bellingham
Jobe Bellingham Midfielder
6.76
10
Julian Brandt
Julian Brandt Midfielder
7.07
20
Marcel Sabitzer
Marcel Sabitzer Midfielder
6.85
21
Fábio Silva
Fábio Silva Midfielder
6.73
9
Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy Attacker
6.99

CONCLUSION

Dortmund's commanding power and form advantages make them the team to beat, likely controlling the game through structured play and quick transitions. Hoffenheim's home crowd could spark moments of resistance, but their inferior metrics suggest struggles against BVB's quality. Without reliable set-piece or efficiency insights, the focus shifts to Dortmund's ability to convert chances efficiently. A narrow Dortmund victory seems probable, extending their strong league standing while Hoffenheim aims to climb from mid-table.

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