Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, England

St. James' Park Sat, 18 Apr - 2:00 PM

Premier League

Newcastle United NEW

AFC Bournemouth BOU

KICKOFF : Sat, 18 Apr - 2:00 PM

Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the Premier League, Newcastle United face AFC Bournemouth at St. James' Park during the 2025/2026 regular season. The home side currently sit 14th in the table and have struggled for consistency, winning just two of their last six matches and suffering a recent defeat to Crystal Palace. Conversely, the away team sit 11th and enter the fixture unbeaten in six games, including a notable win away against Arsenal. Power rankings give the advantage to AFC Bournemouth, marking them as the stronger side with a 5.5 point edge. This matchup pits the Magpies' home form against the Cherries' impressive resilience on the road. With both clubs aiming to improve their league standing, a competitive battle is anticipated.

TL;DR

Structural: Newcastle 14th vs Bournemouth 11th. Hosts at St. James' Park, but visitors rated stronger with 5.5pt power advantage.
Form: Newcastle W2 D0 L4 from 6. Bournemouth W1 D5 L0 from 6. Magpies lost last away, Cherries won at Arsenal.
Squad: No major squad issues reported for either side ahead of this mid-table Premier League clash.
Efficiency: Recent results indicate Bournemouth have been more efficient at picking up points.
Transition: Bournemouth's ability to transition quickly could trouble Newcastle's defence.
Set pieces: Low confidence in set piece data for both teams with proxy metrics in use.
xVariable: Power scores suggest Bournemouth hold the upper hand in underlying performance.
Market: Newcastle United 48.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.6% (Δ+0%) | AFC Bournemouth 26.7% (Δ+0%).

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Jan 25 vs Team A

Feb 1 vs Team B

Feb 8 vs Team C

E. Howe

A. Iraola

1.32

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.24

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

5 - 8 - 4

No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Newcastle United

48.79%

Draw

24.56%

AFC Bournemouth

26.65%

Team Power Ranking

21.92

27.39

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Newcastle United

AFC Bournemouth

Power Score

21.92

27.39

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score

AFC Bournemouth — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Newcastle United AFC Bournemouth

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Newcastle United NEW Home

17 matches

AFC Bournemouth BOU Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-1

Goal Difference

Expected Goals

xGA

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:08:36+00:00

STARTING XI

32 A. Ramsdale

21 V. Livramento

12 M. Thiaw

4 S. Botman

3 L. Hall

23 J. Murphy

67 L. Miley

8 S. Tonali

28 J. Willock

10 A. Gordon

18 W. Osula

1 Đ. Petrović

3 A. Truffert

5 M. Senesi

23 J. Hill

20 A. Jiménez Sánchez

10 R. Christie

8 A. Scott

16 M. Tavernier

22 E. Kroupi

37 R. Rocha

9 F. de Lima Barbosa

General Information

Date & Time

Apr 18, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition

2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 33 · Regular Season

Stadium

St. James' Park

Capacity

52409

Pitch Surface

Grass

Weather

☀️ , Clear

Referees

Simon Bennett

Robert Madley

Thomas Bramall

Mark Stevens

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Bramall

Manager ▼

E. Howe Coach

Starting XI ▼

Aaron Ramsdale Goalkeeper

6.62

Lewis Hall Defender

6.91

Sven Botman Defender

6.88

Malick Thiaw Defender

6.98

Tino Livramento Defender

6.69

Sandro Tonali Midfielder

6.94

Anthony Gordon Midfielder

6.92

Jacob Murphy Midfielder

6.78

Joe Willock Midfielder

6.62

Lewis Miley Midfielder

William Osula Attacker

6.66

Referee : Thomas Bramall

Manager ▼

A. Iraola Coach

Starting XI ▼

Djordje Petrovic Goalkeeper

6.81

Adrien Truffert Defender

6.79

Marcos Senesi Defender

7.03

Álex Jiménez Defender

6.72

James Hill Defender

6.91

Alex Scott Midfielder

6.96

Ryan Christie Midfielder

6.66

Eli Kroupi Midfielder

6.84

Evanilson Attacker

6.8

Marcus Tavernier Attacker

6.91

Rayan Attacker

6.94

CONCLUSION

Bournemouth arrive in strong form and with the backing of superior power ratings, yet Newcastle will draw confidence from home support at St. James' Park. The Magpies must address their patchy form if they are to take something from this fixture against a resilient and hard-to-beat opponent. Expect a tactical battle where the visitors look to frustrate and counter while the hosts push forward. A share of the spoils is a distinct possibility given the away side's drawing tendency, but either team could emerge victorious in what shapes up as a key mid-table contest.

STANDINGS

CONTEXT