Hull City vs Birmingham City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
MKM Stadium Tomorrow - 2:00 PM
Championship
Hull City HUL
Versus
Birmingham City BRC
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 2:00 PM
Round 43 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Hull City welcome Birmingham City to the MKM Stadium for a crucial Championship regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting pretty in 6th place, the Tigers boast a solid home record, leveraging their power score of 22.52 against Birmingham's slightly superior 24.07, which grants the Blues a narrow 1.6-point edge. Recent form tilts towards the visitors with an 18.5 rating compared to Hull's 13.56, suggesting Birmingham could exploit transitions effectively. Despite Hull's higher league standing, Birmingham's underlying strength positions them as the stronger side overall. Both teams lack detailed set-piece metrics due to unavailable xG data, leveling that aspect. Expect a tight encounter where Hull's home advantage clashes with Birmingham's momentum, potentially hinging on efficiency in open play.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Birmingham City holds a 1.6-point power advantage over Hull City despite the hosts' 6th-place league position versus the visitors' 15th.
  • Form: Birmingham City outperforms Hull City recently with a form score of 18.5 against 13.56.
  • Squad: Hull City relies on home strength at MKM Stadium while Birmingham City brings superior overall power rating.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team in this matchup.
  • Transition: Birmingham City's higher form score indicates potential edge in transitional phases.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece metrics unavailable with low confidence and proxy data used for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG data absent, limiting advanced variable analysis for attacking and defensive phases.
  • Market: Baseline split: Hull City 38.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.3% (Δ+0%) | Birmingham City 34.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hull City S. Jakirović
S. Jakirović
VS
Birmingham City C. Davies
C. Davies
1.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield United Rank: L
Coventry City Rank: D
Oxford United Rank: D
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: L
Wrexham Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wrexham Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: L
Derby County Rank: L
Sheffield United Rank: D
Queens Park Rangers Rank: W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 7 - 6
6
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hull City
38.37%
Draw
27.25%
Away Birmingham City
34.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.52
24.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hull City
Birmingham City
Power Score
22.52
24.07
League Position
6
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score
Birmingham City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hull City Birmingham City

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hull City HUL Home
25 matches
Birmingham City BRC Away
Match Record
12
Wins
6
7
Draws
7
6
Losses
12
Goals
43
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
43
+16
Goal Difference
-16
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T00:08:20+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
I. Pandur
1 I. Pandur
P. McNair
37 P. McNair
O. Ibidapo Ajayi
6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
J. Egan
15 J. Egan
L. Coyle
2 L. Coyle
A. Hadžiahmetović
20 A. Hadžiahmetović
D. Gyabi
24 D. Gyabi
J. Gelhardt
21 J. Gelhardt
M. Crooks
25 M. Crooks
L. Millar
7 L. Millar
O. McBurnie
9 O. McBurnie
J. Beadle
25 J. Beadle
K. Wagner
31 K. Wagner
P. Neumann
5 P. Neumann
C. Klarer
4 C. Klarer
B. Osayi-Samuel
26 B. Osayi-Samuel
J. Solis Romero
14 J. Solis Romero
T. Iwata
24 T. Iwata
I. Osman
17 I. Osman
J. Stansfield
28 J. Stansfield
C. Vicente Robles
23 C. Vicente Robles
A. Priske
29 A. Priske

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 43 · Regular Season
Stadium
MKM Stadium
Capacity
25586
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
J. Graham
Carl Fitch
Jamie O'Connor
Stephen Martin

Expected Lineup

Referee : Stephen Martin

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivor Pandur
Ivor Pandur Goalkeeper
6.9
9
Oliver McBurnie
Oliver McBurnie Centre Forward
7.1
20
Amir Hadziahmetovic
Amir Hadziahmetovic Defensive Midfield
6.72
6
Semi Ajayi
Semi Ajayi Right Back
6.73
7
Liam Millar
Liam Millar Left Wing
6.78
15
John Egan
John Egan Left Back
6.88
25
Matt Crooks
Matt Crooks Attacking Midfield
6.89
24
Darko Gyabi
Darko Gyabi Defensive Midfield
6.58
37
Patrick James Coleman McNair
Patrick James Coleman McNair Right Back
6.49
2
Lewie Coyle
Lewie Coyle Left Back
6.76
21
Joe Gelhardt
Joe Gelhardt Right Wing
7.01
Referee : Stephen Martin

Starting XI ▼

25
James Beadle
James Beadle Goalkeeper
6.7
29
August Priske
August Priske Centre Forward
6.65
4
Christoph Klarer
Christoph Klarer Right Back
7
5
Phil Neumann
Phil Neumann Left Back
6.91
23
Carlos Vicente
Carlos Vicente Right Wing
6.74
14
Jhon Solís
Jhon Solís Defensive Midfield
6.64
17
Ibrahim Osman
Ibrahim Osman Left Wing
6.72
24
Tomoki Iwata
Tomoki Iwata Defensive Midfield
6.91
26
Bright Osayi-Samuel
Bright Osayi-Samuel Right Back
6.52
28
Jay Stansfield
Jay Stansfield Attacking Midfield
6.69
31
Kai Wagner
Kai Wagner Left Back
7.16

CONCLUSION

This Championship showdown pits Hull City's league perch and home fortitude against Birmingham City's power and form supremacy. With the Blues marginally stronger, they may disrupt Hull's rhythm through quick counters, though the Tigers' positioning suggests resilience. Absent detailed set-piece or efficiency insights, the battle likely unfolds in open play where small margins decide. Hull must harness MKM Stadium energy to counter Birmingham's edge, promising a compelling 90 minutes of second-tier intensity.

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