Swansea City vs Southampton Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Swansea.com Stadium Tomorrow - 2:00 PM
Championship
Swansea City SWA
Versus
Southampton SOU
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 2:00 PM
Round 43 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Swansea City host Southampton in Championship (Regular Season) at Swansea.com Stadium. Domestically, Swansea City sit 14th in the table while Southampton are 4th. Power ranking favours Southampton by 20.4 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Southampton hold a decisive 20.4-point power advantage as the stronger side.
  • Form: Southampton's form score reaches 47.72, surpassing Swansea City's 17.33.
  • Squad: Positioned 4th, Southampton rank above 14th-placed Swansea City.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data provided for either team.
  • Transition: Transition statistics unavailable in current dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set piece metrics show low confidence with proxies used for both squads.
  • xVariable: xG variables absent as data add-on disabled.
  • Market: Swansea City 24.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23% (Δ+0%) | Southampton 52.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Swansea City V. Emanuel Soares Matos
V. Emanuel Soares Matos
VS
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.85
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leicester City Rank: W
Middlesbrough Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: D
Coventry City Rank: L
Wrexham Rank: L
Portsmouth Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Blackburn Rovers Rank: W
Derby County Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: W
Norwich City Rank: W
Coventry City Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 11
11
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Swansea City
24.9%
Draw
23.04%
Away Southampton
52.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.47
43.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Swansea City
Southampton
Power Score
23.47
43.9
League Position
14
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Swansea City — Opponent-weighted form score
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Swansea City Southampton

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Swansea City SWA Home
19 matches
Southampton SOU Away
Match Record
3
Wins
11
5
Draws
5
11
Losses
3
Goals
13
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
13
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T00:08:42+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
L. Vigouroux
22 L. Vigouroux
S. Parker
41 S. Parker
B. Cabango
5 B. Cabango
C. Burgess
15 C. Burgess
J. Tymon
14 J. Tymon
L. Walta
21 L. Walta
M. Stamenic
6 M. Stamenic
G. Nunes Fernandes Gomes
18 G. Nunes Fernandes Gomes
M. Widell
7 M. Widell
L. Cullen
20 L. Cullen
Ž. Vipotnik
9 Ž. Vipotnik
D. Peretz
41 D. Peretz
R. Manning
3 R. Manning
T. Harwood-Bellis
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
J. Stephens
5 J. Stephens
J. Bree
14 J. Bree
F. Downes
4 F. Downes
C. Archer
19 C. Archer
S. Charles
24 S. Charles
T. Fellows
18 T. Fellows
L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
13 L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
R. Stewart
11 R. Stewart

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 43 · Regular Season
Stadium
Swansea.com Stadium
Capacity
20827
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oliver Langford
Johnathon Bickerdike
Mark Russell
Martin Woods

Expected Lineup

Referee : Oliver Langford

Starting XI ▼

22
Lawrence Vigouroux
Lawrence Vigouroux Goalkeeper
6.97
9
Zan Vipotnik
Zan Vipotnik Centre Forward
7.03
18
Gustavo Nunes
Gustavo Nunes Right Wing
6.57
20
Liam Cullen
Liam Cullen Left Wing
6.7
21
Leo Walta
Leo Walta Defensive Midfield
6.54
41
Sam Parker
Sam Parker Right Back
6.47
5
Ben Cabango
Ben Cabango Right Back
6.91
6
Marko Stamenić
Marko Stamenić Defensive Midfield
6.78
7
Melker Widell
Melker Widell Attacking Midfield
6.61
14
Josh Tymon
Josh Tymon Left Back
6.99
15
Cameron Burgess
Cameron Burgess Left Back
6.97
Referee : Oliver Langford

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
6.93
19
Cameron Archer
Cameron Archer Midfielder
6.59
13
Leo Scienza
Leo Scienza Midfielder
7.33
11
Ross Stewart
Ross Stewart Centre Forward
6.85
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Left Back
7.26
5
Jack Stephens
Jack Stephens Centre Back
6.93
14
James Bree
James Bree Right Back
6.95
4
Flynn Downes
Flynn Downes Right Back
6.81
18
Tom Fellows
Tom Fellows Central Midfield
6.75
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Left Back
7.22
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles Central Midfield
6.98

CONCLUSION

Southampton's commanding power score, superior form, and higher league standing position them to dominate proceedings at Swansea.com Stadium. Swansea City, despite home advantage, face an uphill battle against a side 20.4 points stronger. Projections favor Southampton at 52.1%, hinting at their likely control. Absent set piece and efficiency insights introduce minor unknowns, but overall metrics point to visitor success. Swansea must elevate beyond their 17.33 form to compete effectively.

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