Wrexham vs Stoke City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Racecourse Ground Sat, 18 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Wrexham WXH
Versus
Stoke City STK
KICKOFF : Sat, 18 Apr - 2:00 PM
Round 43 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the Championship regular season of 2025/2026, Wrexham prepare to host Stoke City at the Racecourse Ground. The home side currently sits in seventh position and holds a notable power advantage with a score of 25.22 against the visitors' 19.32. Recent form shows Wrexham with two wins, one draw and three losses from six matches while Stoke City have two wins, two draws and two defeats. Last time out the hosts suffered a loss away to Birmingham City and the visitors played out a draw at home versus Blackburn Rovers. Advanced metrics identify Wrexham as the stronger team overall. League positions suggest promotion aspirations for the home club and a need for improvement from the sixteenth-placed away side. This fixture at a passionate venue promises competitive action from the first whistle.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Seventh-placed Wrexham host sixteenth-placed Stoke with clear home power advantage at Racecourse Ground.
  • Form: Wrexham W2 D1 L3 and Stoke W2 D2 L2 in last six matches with visitors holding slight recent edge.
  • Squad: Competitive rosters on display for both teams though detailed availability remains limited in previews.
  • Efficiency: Metrics point toward balanced but unspecific efficiency levels given current data constraints.
  • Transition: Midfield battles likely to spark rapid shifts as sides seek to exploit defensive lapses.
  • Set pieces: Low confidence data and proxy usage reduce emphasis on set plays in favor of open play focus.
  • xVariable: Power scores strongly favor hosts indicating positive variance in expected match control.
  • Market: Wrexham 55.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25% (Δ+0%) | Stoke City 19.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Wrexham P. Parkinson
P. Parkinson
VS
Stoke City M. Robins
M. Robins
1.64
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.21
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Birmingham City Rank: L
Southampton Rank: L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: W
Watford Rank: L
Swansea City Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Derby County Rank: L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: L
Watford Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Wrexham
55.28%
Draw
24.99%
Away Stoke City
19.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.22
19.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Wrexham
Stoke City
Power Score
25.22
19.32
League Position
7
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Wrexham — Opponent-weighted form score
Stoke City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Wrexham Stoke City

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Wrexham WXH Home
2 matches
Stoke City STK Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
1
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:09:41+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Okonkwo
1 A. Okonkwo
M. Cleworth
4 M. Cleworth
D. Scarr
24 D. Scarr
C. Doyle
2 C. Doyle
I. Kabore
12 I. Kabore
M. James
37 M. James
G. Dobson
15 G. Dobson
G. Thomason
14 G. Thomason
O. Rathbone
20 O. Rathbone
L. O'Brien
27 L. O'Brien
K. Moore
19 K. Moore
G. Bazunu
31 G. Bazunu
E. Bocat
17 E. Bocat
A. Cresswell
3 A. Cresswell
S. Agina
50 S. Agina
O. Lawal
18 O. Lawal
L. Baker
8 L. Baker
B. Pearson
4 B. Pearson
S. Thomas
7 S. Thomas
M. Manhoef
42 M. Manhoef
J. Rak-Sakyi
21 J. Rak-Sakyi
S. Gallagher
20 S. Gallagher

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 43 · Regular Season
Stadium
Racecourse Ground
Capacity
10771
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adam Herczeg
Alex James
Samuel Lewis
Leigh Doughty

Expected Lineup

Referee : Adam Herczeg

Starting XI ▼

1
Arthur Okonkwo
Arthur Okonkwo Goalkeeper
6.84
12
Issa Kaboré
Issa Kaboré Midfielder
6.82
20
Ollie Rathbone
Ollie Rathbone Midfielder
6.86
27
Lewis O'Brien
Lewis O'Brien Midfielder
7
14
George Thomason
George Thomason Midfielder
6.9
19
Kieffer Moore
Kieffer Moore Centre Forward
7.02
4
Max Cleworth
Max Cleworth Right Back
6.87
37
Matty James
Matty James Central Midfield
6.83
24
Dan Scarr
Dan Scarr Centre Back
6.77
15
George Dobson
George Dobson Central Midfield
6.92
2
Callum Doyle
Callum Doyle Left Back
6.79
Referee : Adam Herczeg

Starting XI ▼

31
Gavin Bazunu
Gavin Bazunu Goalkeeper
6.58
20
Sam Gallagher
Sam Gallagher Centre Forward
6.81
4
Ben Pearson
Ben Pearson Defensive Midfield
6.59
7
Sorba Thomas
Sorba Thomas Left Wing
6.99
8
Lewis Baker
Lewis Baker Defensive Midfield
6.97
17
Eric-Junior Bocat
Eric-Junior Bocat Left Back
6.7
42
Million Manhoef
Million Manhoef Attacking Midfield
6.77
3
Aaron Cresswell
Aaron Cresswell Left Back
6.94
18
Bosun Lawal
Bosun Lawal Right Back
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Right Wing
6.79
50
Syd Agina
Syd Agina Right Back
6.35

CONCLUSION

Wrexham look poised to control the tempo by utilizing home support and superior power metrics from the beginning. Stoke City need sharper defensive organization to blunt attacks while hunting for breaks on the counter. Recent mixed results for both clubs underline the importance of seizing key moments throughout the contest. Higher league standing combined with venue familiarity adds weight to home expectations in this encounter. Execution in midfield and final third will separate the sides as the season progresses. Supporters should witness an energetic Championship clash where the hosts aim to advance their standing further.

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