Real Zaragoza vs Ceuta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de la Romareda Sat, 18 Apr - 2:15 PM
La Liga 2
Real Zaragoza ZAR
2 – 2
Ceuta Ceuta
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 2:15 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Dani Gómez - 85' (P)
Rober González - 57'
Goal
|
Goal
Marcos Fernández - 89'
Konrad de la Fuente - 32'
|
Red Card Yago Cantero 49'

CONTEXT

Real Zaragoza hosted Ceuta in a pulsating Segunda División match that concluded in a 2-2 draw, defying pre-match expectations for the home side. Zaragoza, considered the stronger team, controlled 52% possession but trailed 0-1 at halftime. Ceuta's resilience shone through despite receiving a red card in the second half, allowing Zaragoza to equalize before Ceuta struck back twice for the dramatic tie. No xG data was available, leaving performance metrics reliant on possession and events. The result marked a significant structural deviation for Zaragoza at 75.4%, with efficiency shifts in line with norms. Market alignment failed to materialize, and second-half play was distorted by the red card. Zaragoza's failure to convert dominance into victory highlights Ceuta's gritty comeback ability in a game full of momentum swings.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Zaragoza showed a significant 75.4% structural deviation from expected performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was not achieved in the draw outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without recorded metrics.
  • Event impact: Away red card created substantial event impact on match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Ceuta's red card distorted second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Morilla Turrión

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Gutiérrez

4th Official

A. Gutiérrez Martino

1st Assistant

M. Herrera Ruiz

2nd Assistant

Real Zaragoza D. Navarro Arenaz
D. Navarro Arenaz
VS
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: L
Mirandés Rank: L
Leganés Rank: D
Racing Santander Rank: W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: L
Almería Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad II Rank: D
SD Eibar Rank: L
Burgos Rank: D
Cádiz Rank: W
Leganés Rank: L
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Zaragoza
55.75%
Draw
24.59%
Away Ceuta
19.66%

Movement

Changes since opening
Real Zaragoza
+40.24%
Draw
-58.51%
Ceuta
+18.27%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.08
20.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Zaragoza
Ceuta
Power Score
23.08
20.96
League Position
19
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Zaragoza — Opponent-weighted form score
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Zaragoza Ceuta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Zaragoza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
54.42
19.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.38
54.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Zaragoza +3.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Ceuta -3.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Zaragoza
Ceuta
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Zaragoza Ceuta
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Zaragoza Ceuta
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Zaragoza
Ceuta
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Real Zaragoza
vs
Ceuta
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Real Zaragoza Ceuta
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Real Zaragoza 0.38
Ceuta 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Real Zaragoza Ceuta
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Real Zaragoza 0.08
Ceuta 0.03
Real Zaragoza
Ceuta
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ZAR had peak pressure around 65'.
  • Ceuta started the game with stronger pressure.
ZAR Pressure Ceuta Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ZAR reached the top pressure at 65' (98.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Zaragoza ZAR Home
1 matches
Ceuta Ceuta Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:05:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
E. Andrada
Argentina
1 E. Andrada
M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
Substitution
Spain
20 M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
P. Ínsua Blanco
Spain
4 P. Ínsua Blanco
J. El Yamiq
Morocco
18 J. El Yamiq
J. Larios López
Substitution
Spain
27 J. Larios López
K. Bare
Substitution
Albania
6 K. Bare
F. Gracia
Spain
14 F. Gracia
Y. Saidu
33 Y. Saidu
H. Pinilla Ruiz
Substitution
31 H. Pinilla Ruiz
D. Gómez Alcón
Spain
9 D. Gómez Alcón
R. González Bayón
Substitution
Spain
11 R. González Bayón
Pitch
G. Vallejo Delgado
Spain
13 G. Vallejo Delgado
C. Redruello Nimo
Substitution
Spain
16 C. Redruello Nimo
Y. Cantero Pérez
Spain
24 Y. Cantero Pérez
C. Hernández Alarcón
Spain
6 C. Hernández Alarcón
A. Caparrós Guzmán
Spain
4 A. Caparrós Guzmán
M. Illescas Montaño
Substitution
Spain
12 M. Illescas Montaño
Y. Bodiger
Substitution
France
14 Y. Bodiger
A. Tuhami
Substitution
Morocco
23 A. Tuhami
K. De La Fuente
Substitution
United States
18 K. De La Fuente
M. Fernández Sánchez
Spain
9 M. Fernández Sánchez
A. Ahmed Ahmed
Spain
7 A. Ahmed Ahmed

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de la Romareda
Capacity :
33608
Attendance :
17518
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
José Gutiérrez
Alejandro Morilla Turrión
Alaiz Gutiérrez Martino
Manuel Herrera Ruiz

Statistics

Possession
ZAR
54%
Ceuta
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
7 Big Chances Created 2
25 Shots 8
66 Dangerous attacks 26
52 Possession 48
7 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

23 Throwins 19
14 Dribble Attempts 13
3 Goal Kicks 11
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
6 Successful Dribbles 7
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 4
72 Ball Safe 81
1 Penalties 0
1 Injuries 1
23 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

95 Attacks 69
5 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

44 Long Passes 57
16 Key Passes 4
334 Passes 325
285 Successful Passes 249
85 Successful Passes Percentage 77
22 Successful Long Passes 19
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

1 Saves 6
13 Tackles 19
42 Duels Won 46
9 Interceptions 7

Build-up

35 Total Crosses 13
9 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

15 Fouls 14
7 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Morilla Turrión

Starting XI ▼

1
Esteban Andrada
Esteban Andrada Goalkeeper
7.08
4
Pablo Insua
Pablo Insua Defender
5.29
18
Jawad El Yamiq
Jawad El Yamiq Defender
7.05
20
Martín Aguirregabiria
Martín Aguirregabiria Defender
6.89
2
Juan Sebastián
Juan Sebastián
Defender42'
6.54
27
Juan Larios
Juan Larios Defender
6.6
3
Dani Tasende
Dani Tasende
Defender77'
6.75
6
Keidi Bare
Keidi Bare Midfielder
6.77
26
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Midfielder43'
6.82
14
Francho Serrano
Francho Serrano Midfielder
6.82
31
Hugo Pinilla
Hugo Pinilla Midfielder
6.54
19
Kenan Kodro
Kenan Kodro
Attacker43'
6.86
33
Yussif Saidu
Yussif Saidu Midfielder
6.8
9
Dani Gómez
Dani Gómez Attacker
6.78
11
Rober González
Rober González Attacker
7.08
23
Marcos Cuenca
Marcos Cuenca
Attacker87'
6.45
Referee : Alejandro Morilla Turrión

Starting XI ▼

13
Guillermo Vallejo
Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper
6.81
4
Albert Caparrós
Albert Caparrós Defender
6.57
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández Defender
6.84
16
Carlos Redru
Carlos Redru Defender
6.35
8
Kuki Zalazar
Kuki Zalazar
Attacker87'
6.89
24
Yago Cantero
Yago Cantero Defender
6.29
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Midfielder
6.87
27
Marc Domènech
Marc Domènech
Attacker64'
6.65
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger Midfielder
6.61
3
José Matos
José Matos
Defender80'
6.76
23
Anuar
Anuar Midfielder
6.72
20
José Campaña
José Campaña
Midfielder80'
6.81
7
Aisar Ahmed
Aisar Ahmed Attacker
6.67
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Attacker
6.87
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente Attacker
6.66
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab
Midfielder64'
6.75

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Marcos Fernández
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Marcos Fernández
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Marcos Cuenca → Rober González
9th Substitution
87'
87'
Event
Kuki Zalazar → Carlos Redru
10th Substitution
Event
Dani Gómez
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
85'
84'
Event
José Matos
Handball / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Dani Gómez
Penalty awarded
83'
80'
Event
José Matos → Yann Bodiger
8th Substitution
80'
Event
José Campaña → Anuar
7th Substitution
Event
Dani Tasende → Juan Larios
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Rober González
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
64'
Event
Marc Domènech → Marino Illescas
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Youness Lachhab → Konrad de la Fuente
5th Substitution
Event
Rober González
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
57'
54'
Event
José Juan Romero
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
49'
Event
Yago Cantero
Foul / 1st Redcard
48'
Event
Yago Cantero
Card adjusted
1ST-HALF
Event
Kenan Kodro → Hugo Pinilla
2nd Substitution
43'
Event
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze → Keidi Bare
3rd Substitution
43'
Event
Juan Sebastián → Martín Aguirregabiria
1st Substitution
42'
32'
Event
Konrad de la Fuente
Header / 1st Goal
22'
Event
Anuar
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
20'
Event
Carlos Hernández
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

This 2-2 draw represents a missed opportunity for Real Zaragoza against a tenacious Ceuta, who overcame a halftime lead conceded and a second-half red card to secure a point. Zaragoza's 52% possession edge failed to yield victory, underscoring efficiency in line but significant structural deviation at 75.4%. Without xG data, the outcome highlights event-driven chaos, particularly red card distortion, misaligning with market views. Ceuta's resilience earns praise, while Zaragoza must refine finishing to match their stronger status. The tie keeps both teams competitive in the standings.

Real Zaragoza vs Ceuta preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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