Górnik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Arena Zabrze Sat, 18 Apr - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze
1 Winner 0
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 3:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Rafal Janicki - 71'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Górnik Zabrze claimed a 1-0 home win against Korona Kielce in a match defined by second-half resolve. The first half ended 0-0, with Górnik holding 57% possession to Korona's 43%, yet failing to convert dominance into goals. The solitary strike arrived post-interval, securing victory for the stronger home side without any red cards disrupting play. This result marked a significant structural deviation of 49.8%, favoring Górnik. Market expectations aligned with the outcome, and efficiency stayed in line with pre-match assessments. Lacking xG data, analysis hinges on possession metrics and event flow, revealing Górnik's control without wasteful finishing. No notable second-half adjustments or knockout elements altered the script, affirming a disciplined performance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant structural deviation of 49.8% favoring Górnik Zabrze.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout tie influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Sylwestrzak

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Karasewicz

1st Assistant

B. Kaszyński

2nd Assistant

Mariusz Myszka

4th Official

Górnik Zabrze M. Gašparík
M. Gašparík
VS
Korona Kielce J. Zielinski
J. Zielinski
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Widzew Lodz Rank: D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: W
Motor Lublin Rank: D
Katowice Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: D
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: L
Arka Gdynia Rank: W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
Nieciecza Rank: W
Motor Lublin Rank: L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 13 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Górnik Zabrze
50.19%
Draw
26.65%
Away Korona Kielce
23.16%

Movement

Changes since opening
Górnik Zabrze
-45.04%
Draw
+22.07%
Korona Kielce
+22.97%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.19
20.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Górnik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
Power Score
26.19
20.16
League Position
2
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Górnik Zabrze — Opponent-weighted form score
Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Górnik Zabrze Korona Kielce

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Górnik Zabrze

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Korona Kielce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Górnik Zabrze ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Korona Kielce
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.14
45.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.00
41.14
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Górnik Zabrze -0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Korona Kielce +0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Górnik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Górnik Zabrze ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Korona Kielce
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Górnik Zabrze Korona Kielce
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Górnik Zabrze Korona Kielce
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Górnik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Górnik Zabrze
vs
Korona Kielce
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Górnik Zabrze Korona Kielce
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Górnik Zabrze 0.29
Korona Kielce 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Górnik Zabrze Korona Kielce
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Górnik Zabrze 0.00
Korona Kielce 0.01
Górnik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Górnik Zabrze had peak pressure around 55'.
  • Górnik Zabrze started the game with stronger pressure.
Górnik Zabrze Pressure Korona Kielce Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Górnik Zabrze reached the top pressure at 55' (88.94).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze Home
35 matches
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Away
Match Record
11
Wins
11
13
Draws
13
11
Losses
11
Goals
50
Goals Scored
49
49
Goals Conceded
50
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:05:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
M. Łubik
Poland
1 M. Łubik
P. Olkowski
Substitution
Poland
16 P. Olkowski
R. Janicki
Poland
26 R. Janicki
J. Sánchez Guillén
Spain
20 J. Sánchez Guillén
E. Janža
Substitution
Slovenia
64 E. Janža
L. Ambros
Substitution
Czech Republic
18 L. Ambros
P. Hellebrand
Czech Republic
8 P. Hellebrand
J. Kubicki
Poland
14 J. Kubicki
Y. Ikia Dimi
Substitution
France
7 Y. Ikia Dimi
S. Liseth
Substitution
Norway
23 S. Liseth
M. Khlan
Ukraine
33 M. Khlan
Pitch
X. Dziekonski
Poland
1 X. Dziekonski
M. Pieczek
Poland
6 M. Pieczek
P. Resta Tell
Spain
5 P. Resta Tell
S. Rubežić
Serbia
23 S. Rubežić
K. Matuszewski
Poland
3 K. Matuszewski
T. Svetlin
Slovenia
88 T. Svetlin
M. Remacle
Substitution
Belgium
8 M. Remacle
W. Długosz
Substitution
Poland
71 W. Długosz
D. Błanik
Substitution
Poland
7 D. Błanik
M. Stępiński
Substitution
Poland
14 M. Stępiński
S. Davidović
Substitution
Slovenia
9 S. Davidović

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Arena Zabrze
Capacity :
24413
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Damian Sylwestrzak
Adam Karasewicz
Bartosz Kaszyński
Mariusz Myszka

Statistics

Possession
Górnik Zabrze
57%
Korona Kielce
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 3
20 Shots 17
69 Dangerous attacks 47
57 Possession 43
6 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 5
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Assists 0
6 Successful Dribbles 5
32 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
13 Goal Attempts 7
77 Ball Safe 68
18 Throwins 15
9 Goal Kicks 13
19 Dribble Attempts 12
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
4 Injuries 1

Attacking

114 Attacks 79
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 17
55 Long Passes 35
367 Successful Passes 237
436 Passes 313
84 Successful Passes Percentage 76
27 Successful Long Passes 6

Defensive

48 Duels Won 43
3 Saves 5
10 Tackles 18
9 Interceptions 6

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 7
21 Total Crosses 24

Discipline

5 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

1
Marcel Lubik
Marcel Lubik Goalkeeper
6.58
16
Pawel Olkowski
Pawel Olkowski Defender
6.84
61
Michal Sacek
Michal Sacek
Defender64'
6.74
20
Josema
Josema Defender
6.86
26
Rafal Janicki
Rafal Janicki Defender
6.98
64
Erik Janza
Erik Janza Defender
7.13
67
Ondrej Zmrzly
Ondrej Zmrzly
Defender46'
6.44
8
Patrik Hellebrand
Patrik Hellebrand Midfielder
7.33
14
Jaroslaw Kubicki
Jaroslaw Kubicki Midfielder
7.03
18
Lukas Ambros
Lukas Ambros Midfielder
6.9
13
Lukas Sadilek
Lukas Sadilek
Midfielder76'
7.15
7
Yvan Ikia Dimi
Yvan Ikia Dimi Attacker
6.54
17
Kamil Lukoszek
Kamil Lukoszek
Midfielder64'
6.77
23
Sondre Liseth
Sondre Liseth Attacker
6.94
10
Lukas Podolski
Lukas Podolski
Attacker82'
6.56
33
Maksym Khlan
Maksym Khlan Attacker
6.97
Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

1
Xavier Dziekonski
Xavier Dziekonski Goalkeeper
6.94
5
Pau Resta
Pau Resta Defender
7.07
6
Marcel Pieczek
Marcel Pieczek Defender
6.85
23
Slobodan Rubezic
Slobodan Rubezic Defender
6.81
3
Konrad Matuszewski
Konrad Matuszewski Midfielder
6.95
8
Martin Remacle
Martin Remacle Midfielder
6.92
86
Simon Gustafson
Simon Gustafson
Midfielder64'
6.51
71
Wiktor Dlugosz
Wiktor Dlugosz Midfielder
6.93
70
Antoñín
Antoñín
Attacker84'
6.7
88
Tamar Svetlin
Tamar Svetlin Midfielder
6.91
7
Dawid Blanik
Dawid Blanik Attacker
7.23
77
Marcin Cebula
Marcin Cebula
Midfielder78'
6.44
9
Stjepan Davidovic
Stjepan Davidovic Attacker
6.74
37
Hubert Zwozny
Hubert Zwozny
Defender78'
6.51
14
Mariusz Stepinski
Mariusz Stepinski Attacker
6.96
11
Vladimir Nikolov
Vladimir Nikolov
Attacker84'
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
84'
Event
Antoñín → Wiktor Dlugosz
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Vladimir Nikolov → Mariusz Stepinski
10th Substitution
Event
Lukas Podolski → Sondre Liseth
8th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Pau Resta
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
Event
Marcin Cebula → Dawid Blanik
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Hubert Zwozny → Stjepan Davidovic
7th Substitution
Event
Lukas Sadilek → Lukas Ambros
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Rafal Janicki
Header / 1st Goal
71'
70'
Event
Tamar Svetlin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Kamil Lukoszek → Yvan Ikia Dimi
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Michal Sacek → Pawel Olkowski
4th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Simon Gustafson → Martin Remacle
2nd Substitution
Event
Ondrej Zmrzly → Erik Janza
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
14'
Event
Konrad Matuszewski
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Górnik Zabrze's 1-0 triumph underscored their superiority, converting halftime parity into a clean-sheet win via sustained possession and timely scoring. The significant deviation highlighted an outperformance relative to structural norms, while market alignment validated pre-game favoritism. Efficiency consistency and absence of red cards or major events preserved a straightforward narrative. Without xG, reliance on observable metrics like 57% possession paints a picture of controlled dominance, though conversion edges remained narrow. This result bolsters Górnik's standing, reflecting tactical discipline in a low-scoring affair.

Górnik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Ekstraklasa, Poland View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Jesper GK

Jesper GK contributes football previews covering key fixtures, league context, team news, and matchday talking points.