Westerlo vs Genk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Het Kuipje Sat, 18 Apr - 4:15 PM
Pro League
Westerlo KVC
1 Winner 2
Genk GNK
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 4:15 PM
Round 3 Conference League Play-off Group
Afonso Patrão - 76'
Goal
|
Goal
Aaron Bibout - 71'

CONTEXT

Westerlo hosted Genk in a closely contested match that ended 1-2 in favor of the visitors. The first half concluded goalless, with Westerlo holding a slight possession advantage at 52% to Genk's 48%. Despite being rated as the stronger team, Westerlo could only muster a single goal, while Genk netted twice in the second half to secure the victory. No red cards were shown, maintaining a full complement of players throughout. The result showed a minimal structural deviation of 3.9%, attributed to Genk, indicating the outcome stayed close to pre-match structural expectations. Efficiency remained in line with norms, and the market aligned with the final score. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the even halftime score suggests a tactical second-half shift propelled Genk's win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation measured minimal at 3.9% favoring Genk.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market fully aligned with Genk's victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No notable second-half adjustments or events impacted the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Verbeke

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Hillaert

1st Assistant

S. Bourdeaud'hui

4th Official

M. Tiesters

2nd Assistant

Westerlo I. Charai
I. Charai
VS
Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
1.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.45
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Standard Liège Rank: W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Standard Liège Rank: D
Club Brugge Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
OH Leuven Rank: D
Antwerp Rank: W
La Louvière Rank: D
Sint-Truiden Rank: W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Gent Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 8 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Westerlo
0.19%
Draw
3.73%
Away Genk
96.07%

Movement

Changes since opening
Westerlo
-0.05%
Draw
-2.68%
Genk
+2.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.23
25.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Westerlo
Genk
Power Score
27.23
25.29
League Position
9
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Westerlo — Opponent-weighted form score
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Westerlo Genk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Westerlo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Genk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Westerlo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.12
24.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.69
27.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Westerlo +0.23 Efficiency Index
vs
Genk -0.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Westerlo
Genk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Westerlo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Westerlo Genk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Westerlo Genk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Westerlo
Genk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Westerlo
vs
Genk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Westerlo Genk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Westerlo 0.29
Genk 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Westerlo Genk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Westerlo 0.05
Genk 0.02
Westerlo
Genk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KVC had peak pressure around 94'.
  • KVC started the game with stronger pressure.
KVC Pressure GNK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KVC reached the top pressure at 94' (71.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 30 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Westerlo KVC Home
30 matches
Genk GNK Away
Match Record
5
Wins
17
8
Draws
8
17
Losses
5
Goals
30
Goals Scored
53
53
Goals Conceded
30
-23
Goal Difference
+23

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:06:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
A. Jungdal
Denmark
99 A. Jungdal
B. Reynolds
United States
22 B. Reynolds
E. Bayram
Turkey
40 E. Bayram
R. Neustädter
Substitution
Russia
33 R. Neustädter
S. Kimura
Japan
5 S. Kimura
D. Haspolat
Substitution
Netherlands
34 D. Haspolat
A. Piedfort
Belgium
46 A. Piedfort
A. Sayyadmanesh
Iran
7 A. Sayyadmanesh
S. Saito
Substitution
38 S. Saito
J. Alcócer
Substitution
Costa Rica
77 J. Alcócer
I. Ferri Julià
Spain
90 I. Ferri Julià
Pitch
L. Kiaba Mounganga
Belgium
28 L. Kiaba Mounganga
Y. Medina Ortiz
Substitution
Ecuador
19 Y. Medina Ortiz
M. Smets
Belgium
6 M. Smets
M. Sadick Aliu
Spain
3 M. Sadick Aliu
Z. El Ouahdi
Morocco
77 Z. El Ouahdi
I. Bangoura
Guinea
21 I. Bangoura
J. Ito
Japan
10 J. Ito
B. Heynen
Belgium
8 B. Heynen
D. Heymans
Belgium
38 D. Heymans
K. Karetsas
Substitution
Belgium
20 K. Karetsas
R. Mirisola
Substitution
Belgium
29 R. Mirisola

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 3 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Het Kuipje
Capacity :
8182
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bert Verbeke
Mathias Hillaert
Simon Bourdeaud'hui
Martijn Tiesters

Statistics

Possession
KVC
51%
GNK
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 4
3 Shots 5
42 Dangerous attacks 37
52 Possession 48
3 Corners 7
12 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 3
1 Injuries 1
1 Assists 2
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
7 Goal Kicks 6
5 Goal Attempts 9
90 Ball Safe 102
11 Successful Dribbles 6
19 Dribble Attempts 10
0 Hit Woodwork 1
21 Throwins 17

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 3
86 Attacks 76

Possession

56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
373 Successful Passes 344
11 Key Passes 9
45 Long Passes 57
440 Passes 401
85 Successful Passes Percentage 86
25 Successful Long Passes 32

Defensive

44 Duels Won 43
3 Saves 2
9 Interceptions 16
12 Tackles 20

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 3
17 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

1 Offsides 10
11 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

99
Andreas Jungdal
Andreas Jungdal Goalkeeper
6.85
5
Seiji Kimura
Seiji Kimura Defender
6.84
22
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds Defender
6.73
33
Roman Neustädter
Roman Neustädter Defender
6.8
10
Afonso Patrão
Afonso Patrão
Attacker75'
6.43
40
Emin Bayram
Emin Bayram Defender
7.15
7
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh Midfielder
6.98
34
Doğucan Haspolat
Doğucan Haspolat Midfielder
7.29
8
Sergiy Sydorchuk
Sergiy Sydorchuk
Midfielder75'
6.52
38
Shunsuke Saito
Shunsuke Saito Midfielder
6.75
28
Dylan Ourega
Dylan Ourega
Defender56'
6.6
46
Arthur Piedfort
Arthur Piedfort Midfielder
7.06
77
Josimar Alcócer
Josimar Alcócer Midfielder
6.65
11
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni
Attacker88'
6.63
90
Nacho Ferri
Nacho Ferri Attacker
7.05
Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

28
Lucca Brughmans
Lucca Brughmans Goalkeeper
6.63
3
Mujaid Sadick
Mujaid Sadick Defender
6.76
6
Matte Smets
Matte Smets Defender
7.12
19
Yaimar Medina
Yaimar Medina Defender
6.78
18
Joris Kayembe
Joris Kayembe
Defender70'
6.95
77
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Zakaria El Ouahdi Defender
7.09
8
Bryan Heynen
Bryan Heynen Midfielder
7.28
10
Junya Ito
Junya Ito Midfielder
6.93
20
Konstantinos Karetsas
Konstantinos Karetsas Midfielder
7
32
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
Attacker83'
6.8
21
Ibrahima Bangoura
Ibrahima Bangoura Midfielder
6.71
38
Daan Heymans
Daan Heymans Midfielder
7.25
29
Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola Attacker
6.74
23
Aaron Bibout
Aaron Bibout
Attacker70'
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni → Josimar Alcócer
7th Substitution
88'
83'
Event
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg → Konstantinos Karetsas
6th Substitution
Event
Afonso Patrão
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
Event
Afonso Patrão → Roman Neustädter
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Sergiy Sydorchuk → Doğucan Haspolat
5th Substitution
75'
71'
Event
Aaron Bibout
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
70'
Event
Aaron Bibout → Robin Mirisola
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Joris Kayembe → Yaimar Medina
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Dylan Ourega → Shunsuke Saito
1st Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Junya Ito
Handball / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Josimar Alcócer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
19'
4'
Event
Yaimar Medina
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Genk's 2-1 triumph over stronger-rated Westerlo underscores effective second-half execution, overcoming a goalless first half and Westerlo's possession edge. The minimal 3.9% deviation and market alignment highlight a result grounded in structural realities, with efficiency holding steady. Lacking xG metrics, the focus remains on tangible control and finishing, where Genk capitalized decisively. This outcome reinforces Genk's resilience away from home, while Westerlo's failure to convert dominance exposes vulnerabilities in key moments.

Westerlo vs Genk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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