Gençlerbirliği vs Galatasaray Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Eryaman Stadyumu Sat, 18 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Gençlerbirliği GSK
1 Winner 2
Galatasaray GAL
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
M'Baye Niang - 66'
Goal
|
Goal
Yunus Akgün - 35'
Mauro Icardi - 2'

CONTEXT

Galatasaray claimed a hard-fought 2-1 away victory against Gençlerbirliği in the Süper Lig, extending their strong form as the pre-identified superior side. The match saw the visitors take control early, surging to a 2-0 lead by halftime through sharp attacking play, capitalizing on their 56% possession edge. Gençlerbirliği, with 44% of the ball, found it tough to break down the defense initially but mounted pressure in the second half, scoring once to set up a tense finish. However, Galatasaray's resilience ensured they held on for the win without any disruptions from red cards. The result reflected the visitors' dominance, though the single-goal margin highlighted the hosts' improved second-half urgency. This outcome reinforces Galatasaray's position in the title race while exposing Gençlerbirliği's need for better early-game execution.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Galatasaray exhibited a significant 33.2% structural deviation in their performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevents outcome alignment determination.
  • Market alignment: Final result fully aligned with pre-match market consensus.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG metrics leave expectations unassessable.
  • Event impact: Empty second-half adjustments list indicates minimal event influence.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any match distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Kolak

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

O. Bilir

2nd Assistant

A. Demirbaş

4th Official

F. Ürün

1st Assistant

Gençlerbirliği V. Demirel
V. Demirel
VS
Galatasaray O. Buruk
O. Buruk
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.19
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: L
Göztepe Rank: L
Konyaspor Rank: L
Beşiktaş Rank: L
Alanyaspor Rank: D
Kayserispor Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kocaelispor Rank: D
Göztepe Rank: W
Trabzonspor Rank: L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: W
Alanyaspor Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 5 - 21
21

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gençlerbirliği
12.91%
Draw
20.33%
Away Galatasaray
66.76%

Movement

Changes since opening
Gençlerbirliği
+12.72%
Draw
+16.13%
Galatasaray
-28.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.94
41.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gençlerbirliği
Galatasaray
Power Score
14.94
41.39
League Position
15
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gençlerbirliği — Opponent-weighted form score
Galatasaray — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gençlerbirliği Galatasaray

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gençlerbirliği

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Galatasaray

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gençlerbirliği ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Galatasaray
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.50
19.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.46
27.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gençlerbirliği +0.81 Efficiency Index
vs
Galatasaray -0.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gençlerbirliği
Galatasaray
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gençlerbirliği ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Galatasaray
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gençlerbirliği Galatasaray
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gençlerbirliği Galatasaray
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gençlerbirliği
Galatasaray
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gençlerbirliği
vs
Galatasaray
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gençlerbirliği Galatasaray
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gençlerbirliği 0.50
Galatasaray 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gençlerbirliği Galatasaray
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gençlerbirliği 0.05
Galatasaray 0.05
Gençlerbirliği
Galatasaray
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GSK had peak pressure around 94'.
  • GSK started the game with stronger pressure.
GSK Pressure GAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GSK reached the top pressure at 94' (59.02).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gençlerbirliği GSK Home
31 matches
Galatasaray GAL Away
Match Record
5
Wins
21
5
Draws
5
21
Losses
5
Goals
29
Goals Scored
62
62
Goals Conceded
29
-33
Goal Difference
+33

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:06:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Silva Velho
Portugal
24 M. Silva Velho
T. da Silva
Brazil
2 T. da Silva
D. Goutas
Greece
6 D. Goutas
Ž. Žužek
Slovenia
4 Ž. Žužek
M. Hanousek
Czech Republic
23 M. Hanousek
A. Dele-Bashiru
Nigeria
15 A. Dele-Bashiru
G. Gürpüz
Substitution
Turkey
11 G. Gürpüz
O. Ülgün
Substitution
Turkey
35 O. Ülgün
S. Koita
Substitution
Mali
22 S. Koita
F. Tongya Heubang
Substitution
Italy
70 F. Tongya Heubang
M. Niang
Senegal
29 M. Niang
Pitch
U. Çakır
Turkey
1 U. Çakır
I. Jakobs
Senegal
4 I. Jakobs
A. Bardakcı
Turkey
42 A. Bardakcı
D. Sánchez Mina
Colombia
6 D. Sánchez Mina
R. Sallai
Substitution
Hungary
7 R. Sallai
G. Gomes Sara
Substitution
Brazil
8 G. Gomes Sara
L. Torreira Di Pascua
Substitution
Uruguay
34 L. Torreira Di Pascua
B. Yılmaz
Turkey
53 B. Yılmaz
Y. Akgün
Substitution
Turkey
11 Y. Akgün
L. Sané
Germany
10 L. Sané
M. Icardi Rivero
Substitution
Argentina
9 M. Icardi Rivero

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Eryaman Stadyumu
Capacity :
20560
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Osman Gökhan Bilir
Ayberk Demirbaş
Furkan Ürün
Batuhan Kolak

Statistics

Possession
GSK
47%
GAL
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 2
22 Dangerous attacks 38
44 Possession 56
2 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Assists 2
27 Throwins 13
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
6 Goal Attempts 9
9 Goal Kicks 4
4 Substitutions 5
8 Successful Headers 11
0 Injuries 2
81 Ball Safe 65
13 Dribble Attempts 13
8 Successful Dribbles 6

Attacking

69 Attacks 93
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

329 Passes 421
7 Key Passes 6
77 Successful Passes Percentage 82
253 Successful Passes 346
68 Long Passes 51
28 Successful Long Passes 22
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

7 Interceptions 8
0 Saves 2
42 Duels Won 39
12 Tackles 11

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 16
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

11 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Batuhan Kolak

Starting XI ▼

24
Ricardo Velho
Ricardo Velho Goalkeeper
7.09
2
Thalisson
Thalisson Defender
6.68
4
Zan Zuzek
Zan Zuzek Defender
6.83
6
Dimitrios Goutas
Dimitrios Goutas Defender
6.92
23
Matej Hanousek
Matej Hanousek Defender
6.47
11
Göktan Gürpüz
Göktan Gürpüz Midfielder
6.72
20
Adama Traoré
Adama Traoré
Attacker46'
6.51
15
Tom Dele-Bashiru
Tom Dele-Bashiru Midfielder
6.81
22
Sékou Koïta
Sékou Koïta Midfielder
6.8
99
Cihan Çanak
Cihan Çanak
Attacker82'
6.65
35
Oğulcan Ülgün
Oğulcan Ülgün Midfielder
6.9
10
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Attacker46'
6.81
70
Franco Tongya
Franco Tongya Midfielder
6.73
8
Samed Onur
Samed Onur
Midfielder87'
6.67
29
M'Baye Niang
M'Baye Niang Attacker
6.77
Referee : Batuhan Kolak

Starting XI ▼

1
Uğurcan Çakır
Uğurcan Çakır Goalkeeper
7.53
4
Ismail Jakobs
Ismail Jakobs Defender
6.72
6
Davinson Sánchez
Davinson Sánchez Defender
7.01
7
Roland Sallai
Roland Sallai Defender
7.1
93
Sacha Boey
Sacha Boey
Defender65'
6.83
42
Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Abdülkerim Bardakcı Defender
7.07
8
Gabriel Sara
Gabriel Sara Midfielder
7.28
99
Mario Lemina
Mario Lemina
Midfielder77'
6.92
10
Leroy Sané
Leroy Sané Midfielder
7.3
11
Yunus Akgün
Yunus Akgün Midfielder
7.17
17
Eren Elmalı
Eren Elmalı
Defender87'
6.93
34
Lucas Torreira
Lucas Torreira Midfielder
7.06
23
Kaan Ayhan
Kaan Ayhan
Defender87'
6.63
53
Barış Alper Yılmaz
Barış Alper Yılmaz Midfielder
7.27
9
Mauro Icardi
Mauro Icardi Attacker
7.04
77
Noa Lang
Noa Lang
Attacker78'
7.08

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Uğurcan Çakır
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Samed Onur → Franco Tongya
9th Substitution
87'
87'
Event
Kaan Ayhan → Lucas Torreira
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Eren Elmalı → Yunus Akgün
8th Substitution
Event
Cihan Çanak → Sékou Koïta
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Zan Zuzek
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
78'
Event
Noa Lang → Mauro Icardi
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Mario Lemina → Gabriel Sara
4th Substitution
Event
M'Baye Niang
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
66'
65'
Event
Sacha Boey → Roland Sallai
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Leroy Sané
Goal disallowed
Event
Franco Tongya
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
48'
Event
Roland Sallai
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Metehan Mimaroğlu → Oğulcan Ülgün
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Adama Traoré → Göktan Gürpüz
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Yunus Akgün
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
2'
Event
Mauro Icardi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Galatasaray's 2-1 triumph over Gençlerbirliği underscores their superiority, converting halftime dominance into a full-points haul despite a late scare. With superior possession and no disciplinary interruptions, the visitors executed effectively, aligning outcomes with their favored status. This win bolsters their campaign momentum, while Gençlerbirliği must address first-half frailties to climb the table. The significant deviation highlights nuanced performance layers, yet market consistency affirms predictive accuracy amid data gaps.

Gençlerbirliği vs Galatasaray preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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