Juve Stabia vs Catanzaro Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti Sat, 18 Apr - 5:30 PM
Serie B
Juve Stabia JUV
1 – 1
Catanzaro CAT
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 5:30 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Nicola Mosti - 18'
Goal
|
Goal
Federico Di Francesco - 88'

CONTEXT

Juve Stabia and Catanzaro played out a 1-1 draw in Serie C, with the home team leading 1-0 at halftime before the visitors equalized in the second half. Possession tilted towards Catanzaro at 56% compared to Juve Stabia's 44%, aligning with their designation as the stronger team. No red cards were issued, and no notable second-half adjustments occurred, maintaining a steady match flow. Pre-match market probabilities favored a Juve Stabia win at 43.3%, with draw at 28.6% and Catanzaro at 28.1%, but the result marked a significant 71.4% deviation benefiting Catanzaro. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, though lack of xG data limits deeper chance assessment. The outcome reflects Catanzaro's ability to capitalize despite lower market pricing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited a 71.4% deviation, significant for Catanzaro.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to absent xG data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome not aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable without xG metrics.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments notably influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Turrini

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Palmieri

4th Official

G. Grasso

2nd Assistant

M. Emmanuele

1st Assistant

Juve Stabia I. Abate
I. Abate
VS
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.81
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: W
Venezia Rank: L
Spezia Rank: W
Palermo Rank: D
Carrarese Rank: D
Mantova Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: D
Avellino Rank: D
Monza Rank: D
Cesena Rank: L
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Empoli Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Juve Stabia
43.29%
Draw
28.62%
Away Catanzaro
28.08%

Movement

Changes since opening
Juve Stabia
+39.23%
Draw
-63.74%
Catanzaro
+24.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.06
27.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Juve Stabia
Catanzaro
Power Score
24.06
27.96
League Position
7
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Juve Stabia — Opponent-weighted form score
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Juve Stabia Catanzaro

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Juve Stabia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.86
28.21
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.21
23.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Juve Stabia -0.42 Efficiency Index
vs
Catanzaro +0.42 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Juve Stabia
Catanzaro
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Juve Stabia Catanzaro
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Juve Stabia Catanzaro
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Juve Stabia
Catanzaro
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Juve Stabia
vs
Catanzaro
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Juve Stabia Catanzaro
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Juve Stabia 0.10
Catanzaro 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Juve Stabia Catanzaro
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Juve Stabia 0.02
Catanzaro 0.01
Juve Stabia
Catanzaro
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CAT had peak pressure around 91'.
  • JUV started the game with stronger pressure.
JUV Pressure CAT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CAT reached the top pressure at 91' (81.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Juve Stabia JUV Home
3 matches
Catanzaro CAT Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:07:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Confente
Italy
1 A. Confente
S. Diakite
Substitution
France
46 S. Diakite
A. Giorgini
Italy
33 A. Giorgini
C. Dalle Mura
Italy
14 C. Dalle Mura
L. Carissoni
Italy
24 L. Carissoni
N. Mosti
Italy
98 N. Mosti
E. Torrasi
Substitution
Italy
28 E. Torrasi
C. Pierobon
Substitution
Italy
10 C. Pierobon
A. Cacciamani
Substitution
77 A. Cacciamani
O. Correia
France
29 O. Correia
A. Gabrielloni
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Gabrielloni
Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
N. Brighenti
Italy
23 N. Brighenti
M. Antonini Lui
Substitution
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
T. Cassandro
Italy
84 T. Cassandro
F. Di Francesco
Italy
94 F. Di Francesco
M. Pompetti
Substitution
Italy
21 M. Pompetti
F. Rispoli
32 F. Rispoli
R. Frosinini
Substitution
Italy
62 R. Frosinini
G. Alesi
Substitution
Italy
30 G. Alesi
M. Liberali
Substitution
Italy
14 M. Liberali
F. Pittarello
Italy
8 F. Pittarello

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti
Capacity :
12000
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Niccolò Turrini
Andrea Palmieri
Gianluca Grasso
Marco Emmanuele

Statistics

Possession
JUV
46%
CAT
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 7
70 Dangerous attacks 56
44 Possession 56
3 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

6 Successful Dribbles 8
19 Throwins 15
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
9 Dribble Attempts 22
8 Goal Kicks 2
1 Assists 0
77 Ball Safe 59
4 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

83 Attacks 84
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

310 Successful Passes 418
372 Passes 471
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 62
5 Key Passes 12
18 Successful Long Passes 29
83 Successful Passes Percentage 89
44 Long Passes 47

Defensive

4 Saves 2
53 Duels Won 47
5 Interceptions 5
20 Tackles 10

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 4
14 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

14 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Niccolò Turrini

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Confente
Alessandro Confente Goalkeeper
6.83
14
Christian Dalle Mura
Christian Dalle Mura Defender
6.78
33
Andrea Giorgini
Andrea Giorgini Defender
6.39
46
Salim Diakité
Salim Diakité Defender
6.68
13
Marco Varnier
Marco Varnier
Defender72'
6.87
10
Christian Pierobon
Christian Pierobon Midfielder
6.63
2
Manuel Ricciardi
Manuel Ricciardi
Midfielder85'
6.55
24
Lorenzo Carissoni
Lorenzo Carissoni Midfielder
6.83
28
Emanuele Torrasi
Emanuele Torrasi Midfielder
6.74
55
Giuseppe Leone
Giuseppe Leone
Midfielder63'
6.9
77
Alessio Cacciamani
Alessio Cacciamani Midfielder
6.59
37
Fabio Maistro
Fabio Maistro
Midfielder85'
6.92
98
Nicola Mosti
Nicola Mosti Midfielder
6.84
9
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Alessandro Gabrielloni Attacker
6.73
90
Alvin Okoro
Alvin Okoro
Attacker63'
6.63
29
Omar Correia
Omar Correia Attacker
6.82
Referee : Niccolò Turrini

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
6.78
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
6.91
5
Ervin Bashi
Ervin Bashi
Defender90+1'
6.56
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Defender
6.83
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Defender
7
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti Midfielder
6.6
98
Davide Buglio
Davide Buglio
Midfielder84'
6.68
32
Fabio Rispoli
Fabio Rispoli Midfielder
6.78
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini Midfielder
6.61
19
Patrick Nuamah
Patrick Nuamah
Attacker79'
6.47
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco Midfielder
6.71
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Attacker
6.98
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Attacker
6.75
28
Rémi Oudin
Rémi Oudin
Midfielder79'
6.6
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Attacker
6.7
39
N'Dri Koffi
N'Dri Koffi
Attacker84'
6.51

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Ervin Bashi → Matias Antonini
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Federico Di Francesco
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Fabio Maistro → Alessio Cacciamani
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Manuel Ricciardi → Christian Pierobon
9th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Davide Buglio → Marco Pompetti
6th Substitution
84'
Event
N'Dri Koffi → Gabriele Alesi
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Tommaso Cassandro
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
79'
Event
Patrick Nuamah → Ruggero Frosinini
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Rémi Oudin → Mattia Liberali
5th Substitution
Event
Marco Varnier → Salim Diakité
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Giuseppe Leone → Emanuele Torrasi
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Alvin Okoro → Alessandro Gabrielloni
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Emanuele Torrasi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
61'
Event
3rd Yellowcard
61'
1ST-HALF
Event
Nicola Mosti
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
18'

CONCLUSION

Catanzaro's draw at Juve Stabia demonstrated their edge as the stronger side, overcoming a first-half deficit with 56% possession control. The significant deviation from market expectations, where home victory was most probable, points to effective execution by the visitors. Without xG or disruptions like red cards, the balance in efficiency and events supports the result as a fair contest. This outcome reinforces Catanzaro's structural advantage, highlighting possession dominance in securing parity.

Juve Stabia vs Catanzaro preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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