Roma vs Atalanta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Tomorrow - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Roma ROM
Versus
Atalanta ATA
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 6:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Roma welcome Atalanta to the Stadio Olimpico for a pivotal Serie A regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting sixth in the standings, Roma hold a slim edge over seventh-placed Atalanta, but power ratings tell a different story: Atalanta's 25.04 away score edges Roma's 23.94 home mark by 1.1 points, marking the visitors as the marginally stronger side overall. Form scores reinforce this, with Atalanta at 14.61 compared to Roma's 11.28, suggesting recent momentum favors the Bergamo outfit. This mid-table battle carries weight for European qualification hopes, as both teams vie for consistency in a competitive league. Home advantage could level the playing field for Roma, whose passionate crowd often ignites performances, yet Atalanta's resilience on the road poses a stern test. Expect a tight encounter defined by tactical discipline and key individual battles.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Atalanta holds a 1.1-point power advantage over Roma, positioning them as the stronger team overall.
  • Form: Atalanta's form score of 14.61 surpasses Roma's 11.28.
  • Squad: Roma sit sixth and Atalanta seventh in the Serie A standings.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for this matchup.
  • Transition: Limited transition metrics provided for both teams.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage for both Roma and Atalanta.
  • xVariable: xG data not available, impacting advanced variable analysis.
  • Market: Roma 37.9% (Δ+-0%) | Draw 29.1% (Δ+0.2%) | Atalanta 33% (Δ-0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Roma G. Gasperini
G. Gasperini
VS
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
1.62
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.65
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pisa Rank: W
Inter Rank: L
Lecce Rank: W
Como Rank: L
Genoa Rank: L
Juventus Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juventus Rank: L
Lecce Rank: W
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Inter Rank: D
Udinese Rank: D
Sassuolo Rank: L
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 8 - 15
15
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Roma
37.94%
Draw
29.11%
Away Atalanta
32.95%

Movement

Changes since opening
Roma
-0.02%
Draw
+0.2%
Atalanta
-0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.94
25.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Roma
Atalanta
Power Score
23.94
25.04
League Position
6
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Roma — Opponent-weighted form score
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Roma Atalanta

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Roma ROM Home
38 matches
Atalanta ATA Away
Match Record
15
Wins
15
8
Draws
8
15
Losses
15
Goals
57
Goals Scored
59
59
Goals Conceded
57
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T01:01:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
M. Svilar
Serbia
99 M. Svilar
D. Ghilardi
Italy
87 D. Ghilardi
O. N'Dicka
France
5 O. N'Dicka
M. Hermoso Canseco
Spain
22 M. Hermoso Canseco
M. Çelik
Turkey
19 M. Çelik
B. Cristante
Italy
4 B. Cristante
N. El Aynaoui
France
8 N. El Aynaoui
D. Rensch
Netherlands
2 D. Rensch
M. Malvano
Italy
18 M. Malvano
B. Zaragoza Martínez
Spain
97 B. Zaragoza Martínez
D. Malen
Netherlands
14 D. Malen
M. Carnesecchi
Italy
29 M. Carnesecchi
S. Kolašinac
Bosnia and Herzegovina
23 S. Kolašinac
B. Djimsiti
Albania
19 B. Djimsiti
G. Scalvini
Italy
42 G. Scalvini
L. Bernasconi
Italy
47 L. Bernasconi
É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
Brazil
13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
M. de Roon
Netherlands
15 M. de Roon
D. Zappacosta
Italy
77 D. Zappacosta
N. Zalewski
Poland
59 N. Zalewski
C. De Ketelaere
Belgium
17 C. De Ketelaere
N. Krstović
Montenegro
90 N. Krstović

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity
72698
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Matteo Marcenaro
Christian Rossi
Juan Luca Sacchi
Giovanni Baccini

Lineup

Referee : Matteo Marcenaro

Starting XI ▼

99
Mile Svilar
Mile Svilar Goalkeeper
7.04
2
Devyne Rensch
Devyne Rensch Defender
6.75
5
Evan Ndicka
Evan Ndicka Defender
6.93
19
Zeki Çelik
Zeki Çelik Defender
6.79
22
Mario Hermoso
Mario Hermoso Defender
6.88
87
Daniele Ghilardi
Daniele Ghilardi Defender
6.64
4
Bryan Cristante
Bryan Cristante Midfielder
6.99
8
Neil El Aynaoui
Neil El Aynaoui Midfielder
6.65
18
Matías Soulé
Matías Soulé Midfielder
7.03
97
Bryan Zaragoza
Bryan Zaragoza Midfielder
6.85
14
Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen Attacker
7.16
Referee : Matteo Marcenaro

Starting XI ▼

29
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
7.04
19
Berat Djimsiti
Berat Djimsiti Defender
6.94
23
Sead Kolasinac
Sead Kolasinac Defender
6.65
42
Giorgio Scalvini
Giorgio Scalvini Defender
7.03
47
Lorenzo Bernasconi
Lorenzo Bernasconi Defender
6.92
77
Davide Zappacosta
Davide Zappacosta Defender
6.87
13
Éderson
Éderson Midfielder
6.96
15
Marten de Roon
Marten de Roon Midfielder
6.94
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere Midfielder
7.2
59
Nicola Zalewski
Nicola Zalewski Midfielder
6.97
90
Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović Attacker
7.11

CONCLUSION

Atalanta enter as slight favorites on underlying metrics, with superior power and form scores hinting at their edge despite Roma's home soil and higher league position. The narrow projections underscore a balanced affair, where Roma's Stadio Olimpico fortress might force Atalanta into a cagey approach. Key will be exploiting transitions and maintaining defensive solidity, as both sides lack standout set-piece threats from available data. Roma must harness crowd energy to overcome the 1.1-point deficit, while Atalanta aim to convert recent form into points. A draw looms large in this evenly poised Serie A scrap.

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