Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 Copa Del Rey, Spain
Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla Tomorrow - 7:00 PM
Copa Del Rey
Atlético Madrid ATM
Versus
Real Sociedad RSO
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 7:00 PM
Final

CONTEXT

Atlético Madrid host Real Sociedad in Copa Del Rey (Final) at Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla. Power ranking favours Real Sociedad by 7.4 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Real Sociedad claims a 7.4-point power advantage with a score of 31.06 over Atlético Madrid's 23.7.
  • Form: Real Sociedad's form score of 44.44 exceeds Atlético Madrid's 40.
  • Squad: Squad details remain unavailable.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are not provided.
  • Transition: Transition play data is unavailable.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG variables absent as add-on disabled.
  • Market: Atlético Madrid 52.1% (Δ+0.5%) | Draw 26.1% (Δ-0.1%) | Real Sociedad 21.8% (Δ-0.4%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
VS
Real Sociedad P. Matarazzo
P. Matarazzo
2.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.71
2.4 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Barcelona Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: W
Real Betis Rank: W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: W
Atlético Baleares Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletic Club Rank: W
Athletic Club Rank: W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: W
Osasuna Rank: D
Eldense Rank: W
Reddis Rank: W
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 7 - 8
8
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atlético Madrid
52.12%
Draw
26.14%
Away Real Sociedad
21.75%

Movement

Changes since opening
Atlético Madrid
+0.5%
Draw
-0.11%
Real Sociedad
-0.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.7
31.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético Madrid
Real Sociedad
Power Score
23.7
31.06
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Sociedad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético Madrid Real Sociedad

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético Madrid ATM Home
37 matches
Real Sociedad RSO Away
Match Record
22
Wins
8
7
Draws
7
8
Losses
22
Goals
63
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
63
+28
Goal Difference
-28
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T01:01:39+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Musso
1 J. Musso
M. Llorente Moreno
14 M. Llorente Moreno
C. Lenglet
15 C. Lenglet
R. Le Normand
24 R. Le Normand
M. Ruggeri
3 M. Ruggeri
G. Simeone
20 G. Simeone
Pablo Barrios Rivas
8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
J. Resurrección Merodio
6 J. Resurrección Merodio
A. Lookman
22 A. Lookman
J. Álvarez
19 J. Álvarez
A. Griezmann
7 A. Griezmann
A. Remiro Gargallo
1 A. Remiro Gargallo
S. Gómez
17 S. Gómez
A. Elustondo Irribaria
6 A. Elustondo Irribaria
D. Ćaleta-Car
16 D. Ćaleta-Car
J. Aramburu
2 J. Aramburu
A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
C. Soler Barragán
18 C. Soler Barragán
B. Turrientes Imaz
8 B. Turrientes Imaz
G. Ganchinho Guedes
11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
L. Sučić
24 L. Sučić

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Copa Del Rey, Spain · Final
Stadium
Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla
Capacity
70000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Javier Alberola Rojas
Alfredo Rodríguez Moreno
Jorge Bueno Mateo
Adrián Cordero Vega

Expected Lineup

Referee : Javier Alberola Rojas

Starting XI ▼

1
Juan Musso
Juan Musso Goalkeeper
7.36
3
Matteo Ruggeri
Matteo Ruggeri Defender
6.83
14
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente Defender
6.81
15
Clément Lenglet
Clément Lenglet Defender
6.47
24
Robin Le Normand
Robin Le Normand Defender
6.67
6
Koke
Koke Midfielder
6.89
8
Pablo Barrios
Pablo Barrios Midfielder
6.67
19
Julián Alvarez
Julián Alvarez Attacker
7.06
20
Giuliano Simeone
Giuliano Simeone Attacker
6.53
22
Ademola Lookman
Ademola Lookman Attacker
7.34
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann Attacker
7.99
Referee : Javier Alberola Rojas

Starting XI ▼

1
Álex Remiro
Álex Remiro Goalkeeper
7.09
2
Jon Aramburu
Jon Aramburu Defender
6.87
6
Aritz Elustondo
Aritz Elustondo Defender
6.5
16
Duje Caleta-Car
Duje Caleta-Car Defender
6.68
17
Sergio Gómez
Sergio Gómez Defender
7.08
8
Beñat Turrientes
Beñat Turrientes Midfielder
7.3
18
Carlos Soler
Carlos Soler Midfielder
6.86
24
Luka Sucic
Luka Sucic Midfielder
6.96
7
Ander Barrenetxea
Ander Barrenetxea Attacker
6.57
10
Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal Attacker
6.78
11
Gonçalo Guedes
Gonçalo Guedes Attacker
7.22

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Real Sociedad holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Real Sociedad a 7.4-point edge. External projection is Atlético Madrid 51.6%, draw 26.3%, and Real Sociedad 22.1%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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