PEC Zwolle vs FC Groningen Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Eredivisie
FC Groningen
GRO
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between PEC Zwolle and FC Groningen has officially finished, with the final whistle sealing a 1-1 draw. After a tightly contested first half that ended completely scoreless, both sides eventually managed to find the back of the net in the second period to share the points. Entering the fixture, FC Groningen was viewed as the slight stronger team, holding a 38.1% pre-market probability of victory. Meanwhile, PEC Zwolle was given a 35.6% chance to win, with a draw being the least expected result at 26.3%. Because the game ended in a stalemate, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. This upset expectations, resulting in a significant deviation of 73.7% negatively impacting the favored FC Groningen. On the pitch, the balance of play was incredibly even, perfectly reflected by an exact 50-50 split in ball possession. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final score was consistent with the underlying shot quality. However, the teams' overall efficiency shifts remained well in line with standard expectations. Finally, the match was played without major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: FC Groningen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
PEC Zwolle
FC Groningen
Team Power Ranking
i
63.49
63.7
PEC Zwolle
FC Groningen
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
PEC Zwolle
FC Groningen
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
PEC Zwolle
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
PEC Zwolle
⚠ Proxy
PEC Zwolle
FC Groningen
PEC Zwolle
FC Groningen
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:10:40+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Substitutes ▼






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Match Commentary