Excelsior vs SC Heerenveen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion Sat, 7 Mar - 8:00 PM
Eredivisie
Excelsior EXC
1 Winner 2
SC Heerenveen HEE
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 8:00 PM
Noah Naujoks - 74' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Luuk Brouwers - 38'
Joris van Overeem - 67'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Excelsior 1–2 SC Heerenveen. The result saw SC Heerenveen take the points. SC Heerenveen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 51%–49%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: SC Heerenveen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Makkelie
D. Makkelie
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
H. Steegstra
H. Steegstra
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
C. Ruperti
C. Ruperti
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
J. de Vries
J. de Vries
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Excelsior R. den Uil
R. den Uil
VS
SC Heerenveen R. Veldman
R. Veldman
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: L
Fortuna Sittard Rank: L
AZ Rank: L
NAC Breda Rank: W
Ajax Rank: D
FC Twente Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: W
PSV Rank: L
PEC Zwolle Rank: W
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: W
FC Twente Rank: L
FC Utrecht Rank: D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Excelsior
33.66%
Draw
25.46%
Away SC Heerenveen
40.88%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
32.43
47.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Excelsior
SC Heerenveen
Power Score
32.43
47.44
League Position
15
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Excelsior — Opponent-weighted form score
SC Heerenveen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Excelsior SC Heerenveen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Excelsior

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SC Heerenveen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Excelsior ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SC Heerenveen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
48.43
23.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.27
48.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Excelsior +2.73 Efficiency Index
vs
SC Heerenveen -2.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Excelsior
SC Heerenveen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Excelsior ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SC Heerenveen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Excelsior SC Heerenveen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Excelsior SC Heerenveen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Excelsior
SC Heerenveen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Excelsior EXC Home
5 matches
SC Heerenveen HEE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
7
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:15:10+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Stadium
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Capacity
4500
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Danny Desmond Makkelie
Hessel Steegstra
Clay Ruperti
Jan de Vries

Statistics

Possession
EXC
54%
HEE
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
6 Big Chances Created 3
11 Shots 2
74 Dangerous attacks 28
51 Possession 49
6 Corners 8
6 Free kicks 4
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
6 Successful Dribbles 4
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
30 Throwins 16
26 Successful Headers 18
13 Dribble Attempts 15
11 Goal Kicks 9
89 Ball Safe 93
8 Goal Attempts 7
1 Penalties 0
4 Substitutions 3
2 Injuries 2

Attacking

127 Attacks 86
5 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

401 Passes 394
14 Key Passes 9
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
34 Successful Long Passes 23
74 Successful Passes Percentage 76
297 Successful Passes 299
66 Long Passes 64

Defensive

8 Interceptions 14
20 Tackles 13
3 Saves 4

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 9
7 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

4 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Szymon Wlodarczyk → Irakli Yegoian
7th Substitution
90'
Event
Noah Naujoks
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
89'
86'
Event
Nikolai Hopland → Jacob Trenskow
6th Substitution
Event
Mike van Duinen → Miliano Jonathans
5th Substitution
81'
78'
Event
Hristiyan Petrov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
75'
Event
Hristiyan Petrov → Vasilios Zagaritis
4th Substitution
Event
Noah Naujoks
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
74'
Event
Jerolldino Bergraaf → Lennard Hartjes
2nd Substitution
72'
Event
Miliano Jonathans → Simon Janssen
3rd Substitution
72'
67'
Event
Joris van Overeem
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
65'
Event
Dylan Vente → Lasse Nordås
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Var
38'
Event
Luuk Brouwers
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to sc Heerenveen after Rick Meissen allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Sam Kersten from sc Heerenveen was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be five minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Mike van Duinen from Excelsior committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gyan de Regt from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Lewis Schouten.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Excelsior 1, sc Heerenveen 2.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Szymon Wlodarczyk is coming on to replace Irakli Yegoian.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Lewis Schouten from Excelsior takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
90
Update Update
The attempt is denied. Lewis Schouten from Excelsior heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard area, but it's blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Excelsior after Nikolai Hopland allowed the ball to go out.
89
Update Update
Oliver Braude from sc Heerenveen was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Noah Naujoks from Excelsior committed a foul.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noah Naujoks from Excelsior has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
88
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Mike van Duinen from Excelsior attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Gyan de Regt.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for sc Heerenveen: Nikolai Hopland comes on to replace Jacob Trenskow.
84
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Gyan de Regt from Excelsior took a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Mike van Duinen comes on to replace Miliano Jonathans, who is unable to continue due to an injury.
81
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
79
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Miliano Jonathans from Excelsior.
78
Update Update
Hristiyan Petrov from sc Heerenveen committed a foul.
78
Update Update
The match is currently on hold due to an injury to Miliano Jonathans from Excelsior.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hristiyan Petrov of SC Heerenveen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for sc Heerenveen: Hristiyan Petrov comes on to replace Vasilios Zagaritis.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Excelsior 1, sc Heerenveen 2. Noah Naujoks from Excelsior successfully scores the penalty, placing a right-footed shot into the bottom right corner.
73
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is stopped. Irakli Yegoian from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
73
Update Update
Joris van Overeem of sc Heerenveen has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the penalty box.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Jerolldino Bergraaf comes on to replace Lennard Hartjes.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Miliano Jonathans comes on to replace Simon Janssen.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to sc Heerenveen after Lewis Schouten allowed the ball to go out.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Excelsior 0, sc Heerenveen 2. Joris van Overeem from sc Heerenveen scores with a left-footed shot from close range into the bottom right corner.
67
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Joris van Overeem from sc Heerenveen takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. However, Stijn van Gassel, the goalkeeper for Excelsior, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this attempt came from Maxence Rivera.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for sc Heerenveen: Dylan Vente comes on to replace Lasse Nordås.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Excelsior after a deflection off Joris van Overeem.
64
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to sc Heerenveen, following a foul by Simon Janssen.
58
Update Update
Stijn van Gassel from Excelsior has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
57
Update Update
Ringo Meerveld from sc Heerenveen committed a foul.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to sc Heerenveen after Casper Widell allowed the ball to go out.
56
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to sc Heerenveen after Casper Widell allowed the ball to go out.
56
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal has been thwarted. Lasse Nordås from SC Heerenveen took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Ringo Meerveld.
55
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Irakli Yegoian from Excelsior fired a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Derensili Sanches Fernandes.
55
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Ilias Bronkhorst.
55
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lasse Nordås from sc Heerenveen takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Lewis Schouten from Excelsior attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Excelsior after a play that resulted in a deflection off Bernt Klaverboer.
52
Corner Corner
Another offensive play unfolds. Simon Janssen from Excelsior takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Bernt Klaverboer of sc Heerenveen makes a save in the left corner. The assist came from Noah Naujoks.
50
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to sc Heerenveen after Lewis Schouten allowed the ball to go out.
49
Update Update
Ringo Meerveld from sc Heerenveen was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Update Update
Ilias Bronkhorst from Excelsior committed a foul.
48
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
47
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Sam Kersten from sc Heerenveen.
46
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lennard Hartjes from Excelsior fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Noah Naujoks.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score at Excelsior 0, sc Heerenveen 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Excelsior 0, sc Heerenveen 1.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Maxence Rivera from sc Heerenveen took a long-range shot with his right foot from the left side, but it sailed high and wide to the right. The assist came from Ringo Meerveld.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Excelsior after a deflection off Bernt Klaverboer.
43
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Noah Naujoks from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, the attempt is thwarted by Bernt Klaverboer, the goalkeeper for sc Heerenveen, who makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
40
Update Update
Offside call against sc Heerenveen. Lasse Nordås has been caught offside.
40
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Maxence Rivera from sc Heerenveen takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Stijn van Gassel of Excelsior makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Ringo Meerveld, who delivered a precise through ball.
39
Update Update
Luuk Brouwers from sc Heerenveen was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Noah Naujoks from Excelsior committed a foul.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Excelsior 0, sc Heerenveen 1. Luuk Brouwers scores for sc Heerenveen with a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, sending the ball straight into the center of the net. The assist came from Lasse Nordås after a quick counterattack.
36
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lennard Hartjes of Excelsior heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but his shot is blocked. The assist came from Ilias Bronkhorst, who delivered a cross.
35
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Gyan de Regt from Excelsior took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Lewis Schouten.
33
Update Update
Fouled by Luuk Brouwers from sc Heerenveen.
33
Update Update
Gyan de Regt from Excelsior has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
32
Update Update
Maas Willemsen from sc Heerenveen committed a foul.
32
Update Update
Maas Willemsen from sc Heerenveen has committed a foul.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Excelsior after Ringo Meerveld allowed the ball to go out.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Excelsior after Ringo Meerveld allowed the ball to go out.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Maxence Rivera of sc Heerenveen.
27
Update Update
Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
25
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Irakli Yegoian from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive move unfolds. Noah Naujoks from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Bernt Klaverboer, the goalkeeper for sc Heerenveen, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Derensili Sanches Fernandes.
21
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Vasilios Zagaritis from SC Heerenveen took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
18
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
17
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Stijn van Gassel from Excelsior.
16
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gyan de Regt from Excelsior fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Lewis Schouten.
15
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Maxence Rivera from sc Heerenveen takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to sc Heerenveen after Lewis Schouten allowed the ball to go out.
12
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to sc Heerenveen after Ilias Bronkhorst allowed the ball to go out of play.
11
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Ilias Bronkhorst of Excelsior attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it sailed high and off to the right. The assist came from Derensili Sanches Fernandes, who delivered a cross.
9
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Jacob Trenskow from SC Heerenveen attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Maxence Rivera.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Excelsior after Vasilios Zagaritis allowed the ball to go out.
7
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lewis Schouten from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Irakli Yegoian.
6
Update Update
Noah Naujoks from Excelsior has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
6
Update Update
Maxence Rivera from sc Heerenveen committed a foul.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to sc Heerenveen after Ilias Bronkhorst allowed the ball to go out of play.
2
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
1
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Ringo Meerveld from sc Heerenveen.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: SC Heerenveen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Eredivisie View all league clusters