Lens vs Metz Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Bollaert-Delelis Sun, 8 Mar - 2:00 PM
Ligue 1
Lens LEN
3 Winner 0
Metz MTZ
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 2:00 PM
Saud Abdulhamid - 44'
Florian Thauvin - 46'
Amadou Haidara - 52'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Lens 3–0 Metz. The result saw Lens take the points. Lens showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 52%–48%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lens showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Gonçalves de Araujo
F. Gonçalves de Araujo
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
H. Ocak
H. Ocak
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Benoit Millot
Benoit Millot
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
M. Vernice
M. Vernice
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Lens P. Sage
P. Sage
VS
Metz B. Tavenot
B. Tavenot
2.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.62
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strasbourg Rank: D
Monaco Rank: L
Paris Rank: W
Rennes Rank: W
Le Havre Rank: W
Olympique Marseille Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brest Rank: L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
Auxerre Rank: L
LOSC Lille Rank: D
Angers SCO Rank: L
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 4 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lens
74.27%
Draw
16.56%
Away Metz
9.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.67
21.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lens
Metz
Power Score
74.67
21.97
League Position
2
18
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lens — Opponent-weighted form score
Metz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lens Metz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lens

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Metz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lens ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Metz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
51.35
14.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.17
51.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lens +3.84 Efficiency Index
vs
Metz -3.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lens
Metz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lens ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Metz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lens Metz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lens Metz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lens
Metz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lens LEN Home
7 matches
Metz MTZ Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
7
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:08:02+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Capacity
38223
Attendance
37381
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Florian Gonçalves de Araujo
Huseyin Ocak
Benoit Millot
Mathieu Vernice

Statistics

Possession
LEN
52%
MTZ
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
19 Shots 4
54 Dangerous attacks 36
52 Possession 48
6 Corners 4
17 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

13 Successful Headers 12
3 Assists 0
23 Dribble Attempts 15
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
12 Throwins 13
12 Goal Attempts 1
5 Substitutions 5
7 Goal Kicks 12
1 Injuries 1
51 Ball Safe 59
9 Successful Dribbles 7

Attacking

106 Attacks 87

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 86
487 Passes 469
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
426 Successful Passes 402
20 Key Passes 5
28 Long Passes 53
12 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

0 Saves 4
7 Interceptions 13
15 Tackles 24
52 Duels Won 54

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 15
12 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 17

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Michel Mboula
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Anthony Bermont → Abdallah Sima
10th Substitution
83'
Event
Andrija Bulatovic → Mamadou Sangaré
8th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Michel Mboula → Fodé Ballo-Touré
9th Substitution
72'
Event
Giorgi Tsitaishvili → Bouna Sarr
7th Substitution
Event
Florian Sotoca → Florian Thauvin
6th Substitution
63'
Event
Rayan Fofana → Odsonne Édouard
5th Substitution
63'
54'
Event
Gauthier Hein → Giorgi Kvilitaia
3rd Substitution
54'
Event
Nathan Mbala → Believe Munongo
4th Substitution
Event
Amadou Haidara
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
52'
49'
Event
Alpha Touré
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Amadou Haidara → Nidal Celik
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Florian Thauvin
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
46'
Event
Jessy Deminguet → Boubacar Traoré
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Saud Abdulhamid
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
44'
14'
Event
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Saud Abdulhamid from Lens has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Michel Mboula from Metz committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Ismaëlo Ganiou from Lens was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
90
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Ismaëlo Ganiou from Lens.
90
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Rayan Fofana from Lens attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it sailed high and off to the right. The cross was delivered by Adrien Thomasson.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Lens 3, Metz 0.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Michel Mboula of Metz has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Habib Diallo from Metz committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Florian Sotoca from Lens attempted a header from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Andrija Bulatovic, who delivered a cross.
86
Update Update
Jean-Philippe Gbamin from Metz committed a foul.
86
Update Update
Florian Sotoca from Lens has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Metz after a deflection off Malang Sarr.
85
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Giorgi Tsitaishvili from Metz takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Habib Diallo.
84
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Alpha Touré from Metz took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Gauthier Hein, who delivered a cross.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Anthony Bermont is coming on to replace Abdallah Sima.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Metz after Ismaëlo Ganiou allowed the ball to go out.
81
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Rayan Fofana from Lens attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Ismaëlo Ganiou.
78
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Rayan Fofana from Lens attempted a header from the middle of the box, but it sailed over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Andrija Bulatovic, who delivered a cross.
78
Update Update
Giorgi Tsitaishvili from Metz committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Matthieu Udol from Lens was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
77
Update Update
Jean-Philippe Gbamin from Metz has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Update Update
Rayan Fofana from Lens committed a foul.
74
Update Update
Habib Diallo from Metz committed a foul.
74
Update Update
Ismaëlo Ganiou from Lens has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Andrija Bulatovic comes on to replace Mamadou Sangaré.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Metz: Michel Mboula replaces Fodé Ballo-Touré.
72
Update Update
Jessy Deminguet from Metz has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Metz: Giorgi Tsitaishvili replaces Bouna Sarr.
72
Update Update
Amadou Haidara from Lens committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Abdallah Sima from Lens committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Sadibou Sané from Metz has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Rayan Fofana from Lens heads the ball from the middle of the box, but it sails over the goal. The assist came from Adrien Thomasson.
69
Update Update
Saud Abdulhamid from Lens has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
69
Update Update
Fodé Ballo-Touré of Metz committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Rayan Fofana from Lens earned a free kick in the defensive area.
68
Update Update
Jessy Deminguet from Metz committed a foul.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after a foul by Jean-Philippe Gbamin.
65
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alpha Touré from Metz takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left, but it's blocked. The assist came from Nathan Mbala.
64
Update Update
Habib Diallo from Metz earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
64
Update Update
Malang Sarr from Lens committed a foul.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Rayan Fofana comes on to replace Odsonne Édouard.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Florian Sotoca comes on to replace Florian Thauvin.
63
Corner Corner
Florian Sotoca from Lens had a great opportunity but couldn't convert it. He headed the ball from the center of the box, narrowly missing the target. The assist came from Adrien Thomasson, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Sadibou Sané allowed the ball to go out.
60
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens committed a foul.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Metz after a defensive play by Malang Sarr.
60
Update Update
Alpha Touré from Metz has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bouna Sarr from Metz fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Gauthier Hein, who delivered a cross.
59
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Mamadou Sangaré from Lens takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Jonathan Fischer, the goalkeeper for Metz, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Adrien Thomasson.
56
Update Update
Jessy Deminguet from Metz committed a foul.
56
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Metz: Nathan Mbala comes on to replace Believe Munongo.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Metz: Gauthier Hein comes on to replace Giorgi Kvilitaia.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lens leads 3-0 against Metz. Amadou Haidara scores with a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, finding the center of the goal. The assist comes from Matthieu Udol.
51
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity goes begging. Adrien Thomasson from Lens takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly misses to the left. The assist came from Abdallah Sima.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alpha Touré from Metz has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
49
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
49
Update Update
Match interruption - Lens.
48
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Alpha Touré from Metz committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Giorgi Kvilitaia from Metz committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Amadou Haidara from Lens has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lens leads 2-0 against Metz. Florian Thauvin scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Adrien Thomasson.
45
Update Update
Nidal Celik from Lens committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Lens leading Metz 1-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Metz: Jessy Deminguet replaces Boubacar Traoré.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Alpha Touré from Metz has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Lens leading Metz 1-0.
45
Update Update
Malang Sarr from Lens has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Giorgi Kvilitaia from Metz committed a foul.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Amadou Haidara comes on to replace Nidal Celik.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lens takes the lead 1-0 against Metz. Saud Abdulhamid scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, placing it into the left corner. The assist comes from Abdallah Sima.
43
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Odsonne Édouard from Lens takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box. However, Jonathan Fischer, the goalkeeper for Metz, makes a crucial save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Ismaëlo Ganiou, who delivered a well-placed through ball.
42
Update Update
Giorgi Kvilitaia from Metz committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Ismaëlo Ganiou from Lens has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Malang Sarr commits a foul for Lens.
41
Update Update
Bouna Sarr from Metz has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Abdallah Sima from Lens attempts a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Matthieu Udol.
37
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Matthieu Udol from Lens takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the goal and to the right.
37
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Abdallah Sima from Lens takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sails over the goal.
36
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
36
Update Update
Alpha Touré from Metz committed a foul.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens, following a foul by Jean-Philippe Gbamin.
35
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Mamadou Sangaré from Lens takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
33
Update Update
Boubacar Traoré from Metz committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Adrien Thomasson from Lens has been awarded a free kick in his own half.
32
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Adrien Thomasson from Lens attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it went over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Saud Abdulhamid, who delivered a cross.
31
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
30
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Giorgi Kvilitaia from Metz.
28
Update Update
Abdallah Sima from Lens has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
28
Update Update
Alpha Touré from Metz committed a foul.
27
Update Update
Offside - Lens. Florian Thauvin has been caught in an offside position.
25
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Odsonne Édouard from Lens takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Florian Thauvin.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after a defensive play by Believe Munongo.
25
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Abdallah Sima from Lens takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Odsonne Édouard.
24
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
23
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Florian Thauvin from Lens.
22
Update Update
Offside call against Metz. Bouna Sarr has been flagged for being offside.
18
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Abdallah Sima from Lens attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box but sent it over the bar. The assist came from Matthieu Udol, who set him up with a header.
18
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Matthieu Udol from Lens attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Adrien Thomasson, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Jean-Philippe Gbamin allowed it to go out.
16
Update Update
Offside call against Lens. Odsonne Édouard has been caught offside.
15
Update Update
Fodé Ballo-Touré from Metz has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
15
Update Update
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Matthieu Udol from Lens attempts a header from close range, but Jonathan Fischer, the Metz goalkeeper, makes a crucial save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Florian Thauvin, who delivered a precise cross.
15
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Matthieu Udol from Lens takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it’s expertly stopped by Metz's goalkeeper, Jonathan Fischer, who is positioned centrally in goal.
15
Update Update
Nidal Celik from Lens committed a foul.
14
Update Update
Abdallah Sima from Lens has earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
14
Update Update
Jean-Philippe Gbamin from Metz committed a foul.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jean-Philippe Gbamin of Metz has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
11
Update Update
Habib Diallo from Metz earned a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Update Update
Nidal Celik from Lens committed a foul.
9
Update Update
Offside call against Lens. Adrien Thomasson is caught offside.
7
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Fodé Ballo-Touré from Metz attempts a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar. The setup came from Alpha Touré following a corner kick.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Metz after Ismaëlo Ganiou allowed the ball to go out.
5
Update Update
Habib Diallo from Metz earned a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Update Update
Nidal Celik from Lens committed a foul.
5
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Saud Abdulhamid from Lens fired a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Ismaëlo Ganiou.
4
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens commits a handball.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Sadibou Sané allowed the ball to go out.
2
Update Update
Bouna Sarr from Metz has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
Matthieu Udol from Lens committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Giorgi Kvilitaia from Metz committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Florian Thauvin from Lens has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lens exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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