Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium de Toulouse Sat, 7 Mar - 8:05 PM
Ligue 1
Toulouse TOU
0 Winner 1
Olympique Marseille OM
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 8:05 PM
|
Goal
Mason Greenwood - 18'

CONTEXT

The match between Toulouse and Olympique Marseille has finished, with Olympique Marseille securing a 1-0 away victory. The visitors established their lead in the first half and maintained that narrow 1-0 advantage through to the final whistle. Heading into the fixture, Olympique Marseille were the pre-match favorites with a 42.8% win probability, compared to a 30.5% chance for Toulouse and 26.7% for a draw. The final outcome successfully aligned with the pre-match market. Despite being the expected result, the victory still represented a significant deviation level of 57.2%, driven entirely by Olympique Marseille capturing all three points. The flow of the match was tightly contested in terms of ball control, with Olympique Marseille holding a narrow 51% possession advantage over Toulouse's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to assess whether the scoreline was consistent with the exact quality of chances created by either side. However, the overall efficiency shift was perfectly in line with expectations. Furthermore, the tactical flow of the game was not altered by any severe disciplinary issues, as the match concluded cleanly with zero red cards shown to either team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Olympique Marseille showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Perreau Niel
A. Perreau Niel
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
B. Parinet Le Tellier
B. Parinet Le Tellier
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
B. Dechepy
B. Dechepy
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
J. Haulbert
J. Haulbert
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
VS
Olympique Marseille H. Beye
H. Beye
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.12
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rennes Rank: L
Paris Rank: D
Le Havre Rank: L
Angers SCO Rank: L
Auxerre Rank: D
Brest Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Rank: D
Lens Rank: W
Angers SCO Rank: W
Nantes Rank: L
Monaco Rank: W
LOSC Lille Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 17 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Toulouse
30.52%
Draw
26.72%
Away Olympique Marseille
42.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
41.33
61.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Toulouse
Olympique Marseille
Power Score
41.33
61.33
League Position
12
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Olympique Marseille — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Toulouse Olympique Marseille

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Toulouse

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Olympique Marseille

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Toulouse ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Olympique Marseille
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.37
22.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.35
28.37
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Toulouse +0.70 Efficiency Index
vs
Olympique Marseille -0.70 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Toulouse
Olympique Marseille
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Toulouse
vs
Olympique Marseille
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Toulouse Olympique Marseille
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Toulouse Olympique Marseille
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Toulouse
Olympique Marseille
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Toulouse TOU Home
7 matches
Olympique Marseille OM Away
Match Record
0
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
0
Goals
10
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
10
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T09:24:49+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 08:05 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse
Capacity
33150
Attendance
31788
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alexandre Perreau Niel
Brice Parinet Le Tellier
Bastien Dechepy
Julien Haulbert

Statistics

Possession
TOU
50%
OM
50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 7
38 Dangerous attacks 28
49 Possession 51
4 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

7 Goal Attempts 9
19 Throwins 10
17 Dribble Attempts 22
7 Successful Dribbles 9
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41
9 Successful Headers 7
85 Ball Safe 96
0 Assists 1
8 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
102 Attacks 78

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 84
42 Long Passes 52
438 Passes 461
363 Successful Passes 386
21 Successful Long Passes 17
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
12 Key Passes 5

Defensive

13 Interceptions 7
19 Tackles 26
2 Saves 2

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
15 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

15 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mario Sauer → Pape Demba Diop
9th Substitution
84'
83'
Event
Emerson → Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Arthur Vermeeren → Quinten Timber
7th Substitution
Event
Julián Vignolo → Dayann Methalie
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Jacen Russell-Rowe → Warren Kamanzi
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Alexis Vossah → Cristian Cásseres Jr.
4th Substitution
69'
66'
Event
Amine Gouiri → Mason Greenwood
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Tochukwu Nnadi → Geoffrey Kondogbia
3rd Substitution
Event
Mark McKenzie
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
64'
60'
Event
Timothy Weah
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Aron Dønnum
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
59'
Event
Mason Greenwood
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Santiago Hidalgo → Emersonn
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
18'
Event
Mason Greenwood
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
12'
Event
Facundo Medina
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Igor Paixão from Marseille has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Djibril Sidibé from Toulouse committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Igor Paixão of Marseille attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The chance was set up by Timothy Weah, who delivered a precise through ball during a quick counterattack.
90
Update Update
Mário Sauer from Toulouse committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the scoreline reading Toulouse 0, Marseille 1.
90
Update Update
Amine Gouiri from Marseille committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Rasmus Nicolaisen from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Emerson from Marseille committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Leonardo Balerdi from Marseille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Mark McKenzie from Toulouse was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Toulouse. Yann Gboho is caught in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Amine Gouiri from Marseille committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Santiago Hidalgo from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jacen Russell-Rowe from Toulouse fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Julián Vignolo, who delivered a cross.
89
Update Update
Rasmus Nicolaisen from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Igor Paixão from Marseille committed a foul.
86
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alexis Vossah from Toulouse takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Yann Gboho.
86
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Julián Vignolo of Toulouse takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
85
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Mário Sauer replaces Pape Diop.
84
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Igor Paixão from Marseille.
83
Update Update
Alexis Vossah from Toulouse committed a foul.
83
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
83
Update Update
Igor Paixão from Marseille earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
83
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Julián Vignolo from Toulouse attempted a right-footed shot from inside the penalty area.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Julián Vignolo comes on to replace Dayann Methalie.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Julián Vignolo comes on to replace Dayann Methalie.
78
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Timothy Weah from Marseille.
76
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Toulouse after Facundo Medina allowed the ball to go out.
75
Update Update
Yann Gboho from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Update Update
Benjamin Pavard committed a foul on a Marseille player.
74
Update Update
Offside call against Toulouse. Aron Dønnum has been caught offside.
73
Update Update
Yann Gboho from Toulouse earned a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Update Update
Benjamin Pavard committed a foul against a player from Marseille.
72
Update Update
Tochukwu Nnadi from Marseille committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Tochukwu Nnadi of Marseille.
70
Update Update
Yann Gboho from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Update Update
Tochukwu Nnadi from Marseille committed a foul.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Alexis Vossah comes on to replace Cristian Cásseres.
69
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
69
Update Update
Match interruption - Toulouse.
68
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Pape Diop from Toulouse takes a long-range shot with his right foot from the left side. However, Gerónimo Rulli, the goalkeeper for Marseille, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this attempt came from Mark McKenzie.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Toulouse after Leonardo Balerdi allowed the ball to go out.
67
Update Update
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Marseille earned a free kick on the right flank.
67
Update Update
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Marseille was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Marseille: Amine Gouiri comes on to replace Mason Greenwood.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Igor Paixão from Marseille takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar following a free kick.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Marseille: Tochukwu Nnadi replaces Geoffrey Kondogbia.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mark McKenzie from Toulouse has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
64
Update Update
Quinten Timber from Marseille was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
64
Update Update
Mark McKenzie from Toulouse committed a foul.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Timothy Weah of Marseille has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
60
Update Update
Warren Kamanzi from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Update Update
Timothy Weah from Marseille committed a foul.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mason Greenwood from Marseille has been shown a yellow card.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aron Dønnum from Toulouse has been shown a yellow card.
58
Update Update
Aron Dønnum from Toulouse committed a foul.
58
Update Update
Mason Greenwood from Marseille earned a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Attempt Attempt
Yann Gboho from Toulouse strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot taken from the center of the penalty area.
49
Update Update
Djibril Sidibé from Toulouse committed a foul.
49
Update Update
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Marseille was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Yann Gboho from Toulouse attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
46
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Santiago Hidalgo from Toulouse took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, and it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Mark McKenzie.
46
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Igor Paixão from Marseille attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal.
46
Update Update
Yann Gboho from Toulouse earned a free kick in the defensive area.
46
Update Update
Geoffrey Kondogbia from Marseille committed a foul.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Santiago Hidalgo is coming on to replace Emerson.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Santiago Hidalgo comes on to replace Emerson.
45
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play is underway. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg from Marseille takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it’s stopped by the goalkeeper, Guillaume Restes, who is positioned centrally in the goal. The assist came from Mason Greenwood.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Warren Kamanzi from Toulouse had a great opportunity but his left-footed shot from outside the penalty area narrowly missed the top left corner. The assist came from Aron Dønnum.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score reading Toulouse 0, Marseille 1.
44
Update Update
Timothy Weah from Marseille committed a foul.
44
Update Update
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg committed a foul against a Marseille player.
44
Update Update
Cristian Cásseres from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Mark McKenzie from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
43
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Aron Dønnum from Toulouse took a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Warren Kamanzi.
43
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Cristian Cásseres from Toulouse fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Aron Dønnum.
41
Update Update
Pape Diop from Toulouse committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Geoffrey Kondogbia from Marseille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Emersonn from Toulouse committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Leonardo Balerdi from Marseille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Offside call against Marseille. Igor Paixão has been caught offside.
37
Update Update
Igor Paixão from Marseille was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Djibril Sidibé from Toulouse committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Quinten Timber from Marseille has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
35
Update Update
Mark McKenzie from Toulouse committed a foul.
33
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
32
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Leonardo Balerdi from Marseille.
31
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Geoffrey Kondogbia from Marseille attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went just wide. The chance was set up by Igor Paixão, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Marseille after Dayann Methalie allowed the ball to go out.
27
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Marseille attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
26
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
26
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Dayann Methalie from Toulouse.
23
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Toulouse after Timothy Weah allowed the ball to go out.
22
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Dayann Methalie from Toulouse.
22
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
21
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Igor Paixão from Marseille takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it’s expertly stopped by Guillaume Restes of Toulouse, who makes a save in the upper center of the goal.
21
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Marseille attempts a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Mason Greenwood, who delivered a cross.
21
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Marseille after Guillaume Restes allowed the ball to go out.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marseille takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Toulouse. Mason Greenwood finds the back of the net with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, sending the ball into the upper part of the goal. The assist was provided by Igor Paixão.
16
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mason Greenwood from Marseille took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Igor Paixão.
16
Update Update
Quinten Timber from Marseille has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
16
Update Update
Cristian Cásseres from Toulouse committed a foul.
14
Update Update
Quinten Timber from Marseille earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
14
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
14
Update Update
Aron Dønnum from Toulouse committed a foul.
13
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Emerson from Toulouse.
13
Update Update
The match is currently on hold due to an injury to Timothy Weah from Marseille.
12
Update Update
Aron Dønnum from Toulouse earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
12
Update Update
Facundo Medina from Marseille committed a foul.
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Facundo Medina of Marseille has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Toulouse after a play that resulted in Geoffrey Kondogbia giving it away.
10
Update Update
Offside call against Toulouse. Djibril Sidibé has been flagged for being offside.
10
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Rasmus Nicolaisen from Toulouse attempted a header from the center of the box following a corner kick, but it didn't find the target.
8
Update Update
Timothy Weah from Marseille was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
8
Update Update
Timothy Weah from Marseille earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
4
Update Update
Yann Gboho from Toulouse was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
4
Update Update
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg committed a foul against a Marseille player.
3
Update Update
Benjamin Pavard from Marseille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
3
Update Update
Dayann Methalie from Toulouse committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Olympique Marseille exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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