Nice vs Rennes Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Allianz Riviera Sun, 8 Mar - 4:15 PM
Ligue 1
Nice NCE
0 Winner 4
Rennes REN
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 4:15 PM
|
Goal
Nordan Mukiele - 90+2'
Ludovic Blas - 74'
Sebastian Szymanski - 20'
Estéban Lepaul - 13'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Nice 0–2 Rennes. The result saw Rennes take the points. Rennes showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 40%–60%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rennes showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Lissorgue

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Luczynski

2nd Assistant

E. Rosier

4th Official

Y. El Hamzaoui

1st Assistant

Nice C. Puel
C. Puel
VS
Rennes F. Haise
F. Haise
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.71
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brest Rank: D
Nantes Rank: W
Toulouse Rank: L
Strasbourg Rank: D
Lens Rank: L
Angers SCO Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Toulouse Rank: W
Auxerre Rank: W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: W
Lens Rank: L
Monaco Rank: L
Lorient Rank: L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 11 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nice
35.76%
Draw
27.45%
Away Rennes
36.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
32
57.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nice
Rennes
Power Score
32
57.33
League Position
15
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nice — Opponent-weighted form score
Rennes — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nice Rennes

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rennes

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rennes
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.25
23.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.33
41.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nice +1.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Rennes -1.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nice
Rennes
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rennes
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nice Rennes
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nice Rennes
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nice
Rennes
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nice NCE Home
11 matches
Rennes REN Away
Match Record
6
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
6
Goals
15
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
15
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:15:41+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 08, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium :
Allianz Riviera
Capacity :
36178
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Romain Lissorgue
Thomas Luczynski
Eddy Rosier
Youssef El Hamzaoui

Statistics

Possession
NCE
43%
REN
57%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
6 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 9
50 Dangerous attacks 40
40 Possession 60
7 Corners 1
8 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Injuries 0
0 Assists 4
4 Goal Kicks 9
9 Successful Headers 11
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 59
24 Throwins 14
10 Successful Dribbles 13
52 Ball Safe 50
22 Dribble Attempts 22
5 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1
2 Goal Attempts 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

100 Attacks 105
6 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
393 Passes 612
304 Successful Passes 525
10 Key Passes 9
77 Successful Passes Percentage 86
17 Successful Long Passes 27
38 Long Passes 62

Defensive

16 Tackles 19
10 Interceptions 20
2 Saves 3
42 Duels Won 51

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 0
26 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

9 Fouls 8
4 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Nordan Mukiele
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
88'
Event
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal → Mahamadou Nagida
10th Substitution
Event
Tiago Gouveia
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
81'
Event
Djaoui Cissé
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Antoine Mendy → Tom Louchet
9th Substitution
80'
74'
Event
Ludovic Blas
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Tiago Gouveia → Sofiane Diop
7th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Nordan Mukiele → Arnaud Nordin
8th Substitution
70'
Event
Ludovic Blas → Mousa Tamari
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Breel Embolo → Estéban Lepaul
6th Substitution
Event
Kaïl Boudache → Hicham Boudaoui
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
4th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Dante 
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
37'
37'
Event
Estéban Lepaul
Goal disallowed
37'
Event
Mousa Tamari
Video review / Goal Disallowed
36'
Event
Estéban Lepaul
OffTarget
20'
Event
Sebastian Szymanski
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Dante  → Kojo Peprah Oppong
1st Substitution
18'
13'
Event
Estéban Lepaul
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Kevin Carlos from Nice takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Jonathan Clauss, who delivered a cross.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Tiago Gouveia from Nice attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went just wide. The assist came from Jonathan Clauss, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with a final score of Nice 0, Rennes 4.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after a play that resulted in a foul by Anthony Rouault.
90
Update Update
Ludovic Blas from Rennes has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Nice, following a foul by Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after a play that resulted in Anthony Rouault giving up possession.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Antoine Mendy from Nice takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. However, Brice Samba, the goalkeeper for Rennes, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this attempt comes from Melvin Bard.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nice 0, Rennes 4. Nordan Mukiele scores for Rennes with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Valentin Rongier.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Morgan Sanson from Nice attempted a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but it soared over the bar after a corner kick.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Melvin Bard from Nice takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Charles Vanhoutte, who set him up with a header.
89
Update Update
Ludovic Blas from Rennes has been awarded a free kick on the right flank.
89
Update Update
Ludovic Blas from Rennes earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rennes: Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal comes on to replace Aboubakar Nagida, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
87
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tiago Gouveia from Nice has been shown a yellow card.
85
Update Update
Aboubakar Nagida from Rennes earned a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Offside call against Rennes. Breel Embolo has been flagged for being offside.
85
Update Update
Melvin Bard from Nice committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Melvin Bard from Nice.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Djaoui Cissé from Rennes has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
81
Update Update
Kevin Carlos from Nice earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
81
Update Update
Charles Vanhoutte committed a foul against Nice.
81
Update Update
Djaoui Cissé from Rennes committed a foul.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Antoine Mendy comes on to replace Tom Louchet.
80
Update Update
Breel Embolo of Rennes has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
80
Update Update
Kevin Carlos from Nice has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
79
Update Update
Lilian Brassier from Rennes committed a foul.
79
Update Update
Dante from Nice committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Offside call - Great play. Kevin Carlos is caught offside.
78
Update Update
Breel Embolo from Rennes has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Corner Corner
Goal! Nice 0, Rennes 3. Ludovic Blas scores for Rennes with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Breel Embolo.
76
Update Update
Ludovic Blas from Rennes committed a foul.
76
Update Update
Dante from Nice has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Opportunity squandered! Kevin Carlos from Nice attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The cross was delivered by Tiago Gouveia.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Tiago Gouveia comes on in place of Sofiane Diop.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rennes: Nordan Mukiele comes on to replace Arnaud Nordin.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rennes: Ludovic Blas is coming on to replace Mousa Tamari.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rennes: Breel Embolo comes on to replace Estéban Lepaul.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after a play that led to a deflection off Valentin Rongier.
69
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Morgan Sanson from Nice takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
69
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Juma Bah from Nice took a right-footed shot from the center of the box that was just off target following a corner kick.
69
Corner Corner
Kail Boudache from Nice strikes the crossbar with a left-footed shot taken from the center of the penalty area, following an assist from Juma Bah after a corner kick.
69
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Tom Louchet from Nice takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Charles Vanhoutte.
65
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Kevin Carlos from Nice attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it narrowly missed the top left corner. The cross was delivered by Jonathan Clauss.
56
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
56
Update Update
Match interruption - Nice.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mousa Tamari from Rennes took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left.
54
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Mousa Tamari from Rennes takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Estéban Lepaul.
53
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Kevin Carlos from Nice takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Charles Vanhoutte.
52
Update Update
Offside call against Rennes. Mousa Tamari has been flagged for being in an offside position.
51
Update Update
Arnaud Nordin from Rennes committed a foul.
51
Update Update
Yehvann Diouf from Nice has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Update Update
Offside call against Rennes. Mousa Tamari has been flagged for offside.
48
Update Update
Arnaud Nordin from Rennes was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
48
Update Update
Juma Bah committed a foul on Nice.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Jonathan Clauss from Nice attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar and wide to the right.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rennes: Djaoui Cissé comes on to replace Sebastian Szymanski.
45
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Valentin Rongier from Rennes takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Yehvann Diouf from Nice makes a great save, diving to his left to deny the attempt.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Nice trailing Rennes by a score of 0 to 2.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Kevin Carlos comes on to replace Mohamed-Ali Cho.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Kail Boudache comes on in place of Hicham Boudaoui.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Nice 0, Rennes 2.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice, following a save by Brice Samba.
44
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jonathan Clauss from Nice attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal and to the right.
42
Attempt Attempt
An exciting offensive play unfolds as Mohamed-Ali Cho from Nice takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. However, Brice Samba, the goalkeeper for Rennes, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The setup for this attempt came from Jonathan Clauss, who delivered a precise cross.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after a defensive play by Quentin Merlin.
40
Update Update
Sebastian Szymanski from Rennes committed a foul.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice, following a foul by Anthony Rouault.
38
Update Update
Charles Vanhoutte from Nice has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Morgan Sanson from Nice committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Valentin Rongier from Rennes was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
37
Update Update
Offside - Great play. Mohamed-Ali Cho has been caught offside.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dante from Nice has been shown a yellow card.
36
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Nice 0, Rennes 3. Mousa Tamari scores for Rennes with a close-range shot using his right foot.
36
Attempt Attempt
Penalty attempt thwarted! Estéban Lepaul from Rennes took a shot with his right foot, but Yehvann Diouf of Nice made a fantastic save, diving to his left to keep the ball out.
36
Update Update
VAR Review: Goal Disallowed Nice 0-2 Rennes.
36
Update Update
Hicham Boudaoui from Nice has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Rennes! Mousa Tamari is brought down inside the box.
34
Update Update
Melvin Bard of Nice has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the penalty box.
33
Update Update
Estéban Lepaul from Rennes has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
33
Update Update
Dante from Nice committed a foul.
31
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort is underway. Arnaud Nordin from Rennes takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
31
Update Update
Offside - Well done. Mohamed-Ali Cho is caught in an offside position.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rennes after Dante allowed the ball to go out.
23
Update Update
Offside call - Great play. Morgan Sanson has been caught offside.
22
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Arnaud Nordin from Rennes attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Valentin Rongier.
21
Update Update
Quentin Merlin from Rennes was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Mohamed-Ali Cho from Nice committed a foul.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nice 0, Rennes 2. Sebastian Szymanski finds the back of the net for Rennes with a left-footed strike from the middle of the box, sending the ball straight into the goal. The assist comes from Mousa Tamari, who set him up after a quick counter-attack.
19
Update Update
Tom Louchet of Nice has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
19
Update Update
Mahdi Camara from Rennes committed a foul.
18
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Dante is coming on to replace Kojo Peprah Oppong due to an injury.
18
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
17
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Kojo Peprah Oppong from Nice.
16
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Mousa Tamari from Rennes attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nice 0, Rennes 1. Estéban Lepaul scores for Rennes with a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, sending the ball into the top right corner of the net. The assist came from Valentin Rongier.
12
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Mousa Tamari from Rennes takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Valentin Rongier.
9
Update Update
Mahdi Camara from Rennes committed a foul.
9
Update Update
Mohamed-Ali Cho from Nice has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Kojo Peprah Oppong from Nice.
4
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rennes exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.