Olympique Marseille vs Auxerre Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Ligue 1
Auxerre
AUX
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Olympique Marseille and Auxerre has finished with a final score of 1-0 in favor of the home side. After a scoreless first half where the teams were completely even at the break, Olympique Marseille eventually found the second-half breakthrough to secure the narrow victory. Going into the fixture, Olympique Marseille were heavily favored by the pre-match market, boasting a 65.8% implied probability of winning compared to a 20.8% chance of a draw and Auxerre's 13.4% likelihood of an upset. This outcome firmly aligned with those market expectations, despite a significant 34.2% deviation level required by Olympique Marseille to ultimately clinch the result. The hosts controlled the tempo, maintaining 58% possession and leaving Auxerre with just 42% of the ball. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, an assessment of whether the outcome aligned with the true quality of chances created cannot be definitively made. The final result was in line with the efficiency shift metrics for both clubs, reflecting a positive execution for the home side. Furthermore, the match was contested without any major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to either team.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Olympique Marseille showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Olympique Marseille
Auxerre
Team Power Ranking
i
81.87
67.09
Olympique Marseille
Auxerre
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Olympique Marseille
Auxerre
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Olympique Marseille
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Olympique Marseille
⚠ Proxy
Olympique Marseille
Auxerre
Olympique Marseille
Auxerre
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:16:31+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary