Olympique Lyonnais vs Paris Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Groupama Stadium Sun, 8 Mar - 7:45 PM
Ligue 1
Olympique Lyonnais LYO
1 – 1
Paris PFC
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 7:45 PM
Corentin Tolisso - 90+6' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Marshall Munetsi - 63'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Olympique Lyonnais 1–1 Paris. The match ended in a draw. Olympique Lyonnais showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 62%–38%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Olympique Lyonnais showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Pasqualotti
G. Pasqualotti
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
E. Wattellier
E. Wattellier
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
M. Rahmouni
M. Rahmouni
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
F. Benchabane
F. Benchabane
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Olympique Lyonnais P. Rodrigues Fonseca
P. Rodrigues Fonseca
VS
Paris A. Kombouare
A. Kombouare
1.76
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
LOSC Lille Rank: W
Metz Rank: W
Brest Rank: W
Monaco Rank: W
Le Havre Rank: W
Lorient Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nice Rank: W
Toulouse Rank: D
Lens Rank: L
Auxerre Rank: D
Olympique Marseille Rank: D
Angers SCO Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Olympique Lyonnais
49.9%
Draw
27.45%
Away Paris
22.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.33
35.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Olympique Lyonnais
Paris
Power Score
61.33
35.04
League Position
4
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Olympique Lyonnais — Opponent-weighted form score
Paris — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Olympique Lyonnais Paris

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Olympique Lyonnais

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Paris

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Olympique Lyonnais ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paris
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.74
40.92
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.92
27.74
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Olympique Lyonnais -1.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Paris +1.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Olympique Lyonnais
Paris
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Olympique Lyonnais ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paris
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Olympique Lyonnais Paris
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Olympique Lyonnais Paris
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Olympique Lyonnais
Paris
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Olympique Lyonnais LYO Home
1 matches
Paris PFC Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:25:39+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium
Groupama Stadium
Capacity
59186
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gwenaël Pasqualotti
Eric Wattellier
Mehdi Rahmouni
Faouzi Benchabane

Statistics

Possession
LYO
60%
PFC
40%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 4
14 Shots 14
64 Dangerous attacks 31
62 Possession 38
8 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

7 Successful Dribbles 2
17 Throwins 10
9 Goal Kicks 18
11 Dribble Attempts 9
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 22
19 Successful Headers 11
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Penalties 0
69 Ball Safe 76
12 Goal Attempts 8
2 Injuries 2

Attacking

116 Attacks 73
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 80
44 Long Passes 50
492 Successful Passes 287
556 Passes 357
21 Successful Long Passes 16
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
11 Key Passes 11

Defensive

12 Tackles 13
7 Interceptions 3
3 Saves 3
46 Duels Won 33

Build-up

35 Total Crosses 10
5 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

7 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Corentin Tolisso
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+6'
Event
Adil Hamdani
Penalty awarded
90+4'
90+1'
Event
Tuomas Ollila → Marshall Munetsi
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Vincent Marchetti → Rudy Matondo
9th Substitution
Event
Adil Hamdani → Rémi Himbert
8th Substitution
82'
73'
Event
Ciro Immobile → Jonathan Ikoné
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Luca Koleosho → Jean-Philippe Krasso
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Alimami Gory → Moses Simon
5th Substitution
Event
Endrick → Adam Karabec
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Noah Nartey → Tanner Tessmann
4th Substitution
65'
64'
Event
Marshall Munetsi
Goal awarded
63'
Event
Marshall Munetsi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Roman Yaremchuk → Nicolás Tagliafico
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Corentin Tolisso → Khalis Merah
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Nicolás Tagliafico
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
1ST-HALF
Event
Tyler Morton
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Dominik Greif from Lyon.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Tuomas Ollila replaces Marshall Munetsi due to an injury.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty awarded to Lyon.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lyon after Pierre Lees-Melou allowed the ball to go out.
90
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Marshall Munetsi from Paris FC takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Dominik Greif from Lyon makes a save in the upper center of the goal. The assist came from Luca Koleosho.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Dominik Greif from Lyon.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lyon, following a concession by Tuomas Ollila.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push. Endrick from Lyon takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Kevin Trapp from Paris FC makes a save, diving to the top center of the goal. The assist comes from Moussa Niakhaté, who set him up with a header.
90
Update Update
Luca Koleosho from Paris FC strikes the crossbar with a header from the center of the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Lyon 1, Paris FC 1. Corentin Tolisso from Lyon scores by successfully converting the penalty, striking the ball with his right foot into the bottom left corner.
90
Update Update
Alimami Gory of Paris FC has given away a penalty due to a handball inside the box.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Endrick from Lyon takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sails over the goal.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lyon after a deflection off Pierre Lees-Melou.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Lyon and Paris FC.
89
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lyon, following a foul by Adama Camara.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lyon after Adama Camara allowed the ball to go out.
87
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Vincent Marchetti comes on to replace Rudy Matondo, who has been injured.
86
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Rudy Matondo from Paris FC.
82
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Endrick from Lyon takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the left. The assist came from Tyler Morton.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lyon: Adil Hamdani replaces Rémi Himbert.
81
Update Update
Clinton Mata from Lyon has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Marshall Munetsi from Paris FC.
77
Update Update
Offside call against Paris FC. Alimami Gory has been caught offside.
77
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
76
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Rémi Himbert from Lyon.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Ciro Immobile replaces Jonathan Ikoné.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Alimami Gory replaces Moses Simon.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Luca Koleosho replaces Jean-Philippe Krasso.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lyon after Adama Camara allowed the ball to go out.
70
Update Update
Offside call against Paris FC. Moses Simon has been caught offside.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lyon after Rudy Matondo allowed the ball to go out.
68
Update Update
Pierre Lees-Melou committed a foul against a player from Paris FC.
68
Update Update
Corentin Tolisso from Lyon was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Update Update
Jonathan Ikoné from Paris FC committed a foul.
66
Update Update
Moussa Niakhaté from Lyon committed a foul.
66
Update Update
Moses Simon from Paris FC earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
66
Update Update
Corentin Tolisso from Lyon earned a free kick on the left flank.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lyon: Endrick replaces Adam Karabec.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lyon: Noah Nartey comes on to replace Tanner Tessmann.
64
Update Update
VAR Update: Goal confirmed for Paris FC, making it 0-1 against Lyon - Scorer: Marshall Munetsi.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Offside call against Paris FC. Marshall Munetsi is caught in an offside position.
63
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Rudy Matondo from Paris FC takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Dominik Greif, the Lyon goalkeeper, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Adama Camara, who set him up with a header.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after Abner Vinícius allowed the ball to go out.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lyon after Moustapha Mbow allowed the ball to go out.
60
Update Update
Pierre Lees-Melou from Paris FC earned a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Update Update
Roman Yaremchuk of Lyon committed a foul.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lyon: Roman Yaremchuk comes on to replace Nicolás Tagliafico.
58
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Marshall Munetsi of Paris FC heads the ball from the center of the box, but it sails over the goal. The assist came from Jean-Philippe Krasso, who delivered a well-placed cross.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lyon: Corentin Tolisso comes off, replaced by Khalis Merah.
56
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Adam Karabec from Lyon takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right side. However, Kevin Trapp of Paris FC makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt in the top right corner. The assist came from Tanner Tessmann.
55
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Abner Vinícius from Lyon attempted a header from the center of the penalty area, but it went off target.
53
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Jonathan Ikoné from Paris FC attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
53
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Moses Simon of Paris FC takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Dominik Greif from Lyon makes a great save, pushing the ball to the right corner. The assist came from Nhoa Sangui.
50
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nhoa Sangui from Paris FC fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolás Tagliafico from Lyon has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
49
Update Update
Nicolás Tagliafico from Lyon committed a foul.
49
Update Update
Adama Camara from Paris FC earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
48
Update Update
Rémi Himbert from Lyon committed a foul.
48
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jean-Philippe Krasso from Paris FC attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
48
Update Update
Moustapha Mbow from Paris FC has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 0-0 between Lyon and Paris FC.
45
Update Update
Hans Hateboer from Lyon committed a foul.
45
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lyon, following a foul by Diego Coppola.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Lyon 0, Paris FC 0.
45
Update Update
Moses Simon from Paris FC has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
43
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Rémi Himbert from Lyon attempted a header from the center of the box, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Clinton Mata, who delivered a precise cross.
42
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Jonathan Ikoné of Paris FC fired a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Jean-Philippe Krasso.
42
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Adama Camara from Paris FC heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The cross was delivered by Moses Simon.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after Moussa Niakhaté allowed it to go out of play.
42
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Pierre Lees-Melou of Paris FC takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar following a corner kick.
40
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Rémi Himbert from Lyon attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
38
Attempt Attempt
Close call! Rémi Himbert from Lyon took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Adam Karabec.
37
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
35
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Diego Coppola from Paris FC.
33
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Marshall Munetsi from Paris FC took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but couldn't find the target.
28
Update Update
Rudy Matondo from Paris FC committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Adam Karabec from Lyon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
27
Update Update
Tyler Morton committed a foul against Lyon.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tyler Morton from Lyon has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
27
Update Update
Tyler Morton committed a foul on a player from Lyon.
26
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Tyler Morton from Lyon.
26
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play now.
24
Update Update
Tyler Morton from Lyon earned a free kick in an offensive position.
24
Update Update
Marshall Munetsi from Paris FC committed a foul.
23
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Khalis Merah from Lyon attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
20
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rémi Himbert from Lyon takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Tanner Tessmann from Lyon takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but the attempt is successfully stopped.
15
Update Update
Rudy Matondo from Paris FC committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Adam Karabec from Lyon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Pierre Lees-Melou from Paris FC takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Jean-Philippe Krasso.
10
Update Update
Diego Coppola from Paris FC committed a foul.
10
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Rémi Himbert from Lyon had a header from within the six-yard box, coming in from the left side, and it was just inches away from finding the back of the net. The assist came from Tyler Morton.
10
Update Update
Rémi Himbert from Lyon has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
7
Update Update
Nicolás Tagliafico from Lyon committed a foul.
7
Update Update
Marshall Munetsi from Paris FC has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Update Update
Pierre Lees-Melou committed a foul against a player from Paris FC.
4
Update Update
Tanner Tessmann from Lyon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rémi Himbert from Lyon takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Olympique Lyonnais exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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