Newcastle United vs Manchester United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
St. James' Park Fri, 6 Mar - 2:10 PM
Premier League
Newcastle United NEW
2 Winner 1
Manchester United MUN
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:10 PM
Anthony Gordon - 45+6' (P)
William Osula - 90'
Goal
|
Goal
Casemiro - 45+9'
Jacob Ramsey 45+1' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Newcastle United and Manchester United has officially finished, with Newcastle securing a hard-fought 2-1 victory after the teams were deadlocked at 1-1 at halftime. Pre-match market expectations were remarkably tight, assigning identical 36.9% win probabilities to both clubs and a 26.2% chance for a draw. Despite Manchester United being considered the stronger team on paper, Newcastle's triumph represents a significant deviation of 63.1% against the broader baseline expectations. Manchester United controlled the tempo for much of the game, finishing with 55% possession compared to Newcastle's 45%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to ascertain whether the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. Nevertheless, the efficiency shift remained strictly in line with expectations, as Newcastle recorded a positive efficiency rating of 0.3748 while the visitors dropped to -0.3748. A critical factor in the match was Newcastle United receiving a red card, which created a distinct red card distortion during the second-half adjustments. Remarkably, Newcastle overcame this numerical disadvantage to break the tie and claim all three points. Ultimately, the final outcome remained aligned with the perfectly balanced pre-match market.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Newcastle United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Bankes
P. Bankes
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
E. Smart
E. Smart
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
B. Antrobus
B. Antrobus
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
T. Robinson
T. Robinson
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
VS
Manchester United M. Carrick
M. Carrick
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burnley Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: L
Chelsea Rank: D
Sunderland Rank: L
Burnley Rank: W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Everton Rank: W
West Ham United Rank: D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Fulham Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: W
Manchester City Rank: W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 10 - 30
30

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Newcastle United
36.89%
Draw
26.23%
Away Manchester United
36.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
44.83
58.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Newcastle United
Manchester United
Power Score
44.83
58.62
League Position
12
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Newcastle United Manchester United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Newcastle United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Manchester United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Newcastle United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.56
29.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.55
31.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Newcastle United +0.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Manchester United -0.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Newcastle United
Manchester United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Newcastle United
vs
Manchester United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Newcastle United Manchester United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Newcastle United Manchester United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Newcastle United
Manchester United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Newcastle United NEW Home
12 matches
Manchester United MUN Away
Match Record
2
Wins
8
2
Draws
2
8
Losses
2
Goals
16
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
16
-13
Goal Difference
+13
Expected Goals
2.67
xG
1.31
1.31
xGA
2.67

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:25:03+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:10 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium
St. James' Park
Capacity
52409
Attendance
52184
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Peter Bankes
Edward Smart
Black Antrobus
Tim Robinson

Statistics

Possession
NEW
47%
MUN
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 4
12 Shots 14
44 Dangerous attacks 45
45 Possession 55
2 Corners 4
15 Free kicks 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

12 Goal Kicks 8
10 Dribble Attempts 16
21 Throwins 18
1 Hit Woodwork 0
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
21 Successful Headers 20
4 Successful Dribbles 7
1 Penalties 0
1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5
74 Ball Safe 72
2 Injuries 0
10 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

97 Attacks 116
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

291 Successful Passes 384
76 Successful Passes Percentage 82
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
381 Passes 469
74 Long Passes 47
32 Successful Long Passes 18
8 Key Passes 11

Defensive

9 Interceptions 9
18 Tackles 12
4 Saves 3
60 Duels Won 53

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

15 Fouls 16

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sven Botman → Sandro Tonali
9th Substitution
90+7'
Event
William Osula
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90'
Event
William Osula → Anthony Gordon
8th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Tyrell Malacia → Noussair Mazraoui
7th Substitution
Event
Jacob Murphy → Anthony Elanga
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Kieran Trippier
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
80'
77'
Event
Joshua Zirkzee → Bryan Mbeumo
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Amad Diallo → Kobbie Mainoo
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Noussair Mazraoui
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
61'
Event
Manuel Ugarte → Luke Shaw
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Diogo Dalot → Casemiro
2nd Substitution
Event
Joe Willock → Harvey Barnes
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+9'
Event
Casemiro
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Anthony Gordon
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+6'
Event
Jacob Ramsey
Simulation / 1st Yellow/red Card
45+1'
39'
Event
Luke Shaw
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Joelinton
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
38'
37'
Event
Bryan Mbeumo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jacob Ramsey
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Sandro Tonali from Newcastle United.
90
Update Update
Kieran Trippier of Newcastle United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Newcastle United takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Manchester United. William Osula scores with a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
90
Update Update
Kieran Trippier from Newcastle United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Newcastle United emerging victorious over Manchester United, finishing the match at 2-1.
90
Update Update
Bruno Fernandes committed a foul for Manchester United.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Sven Botman comes on to replace Sandro Tonali.
90
Update Update
Joe Willock from Newcastle United has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Sven Botman comes on to replace Sandro Tonali due to an injury.
89
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Manchester United after Aaron Ramsdale allowed the ball to go out.
89
Corner Corner
Another offensive push from Manchester United. Joshua Zirkzee takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Aaron Ramsdale from Newcastle United makes a great save, diving to the top right corner. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes.
88
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Manuel Ugarte from Manchester United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes.
88
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Benjamin Sesko from Manchester United fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Joshua Zirkzee.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: William Osula replaces Anthony Gordon.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester United: Tyrell Malacia comes on to replace Noussair Mazraoui.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Jacob Murphy replaces Anthony Elanga.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Kieran Trippier allowed the ball to go out.
81
Update Update
Diogo Dalot from Manchester United committed a foul.
81
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Bruno Fernandes from Manchester United attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
80
Update Update
Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Update Update
Matheus Cunha from Manchester United earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kieran Trippier of Newcastle United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
79
Update Update
Kieran Trippier of Newcastle United committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Joe Willock from Newcastle United earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
78
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
78
Update Update
Joe Willock from Newcastle United earned a free kick on the left flank.
77
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Aaron Ramsdale from Newcastle United.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester United: Joshua Zirkzee replaces Bryan Mbeumo.
76
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Manuel Ugarte of Manchester United attempts a header from the center of the box, but it narrowly misses the target. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester United: Amad Diallo comes on to replace Kobbie Mainoo.
75
Update Update
Another offensive effort unfolds. Leny Yoro of Manchester United heads the ball from the middle of the box, but Aaron Ramsdale, the goalkeeper for Newcastle United, makes a save right in front of the goal. The assist comes from Bruno Fernandes.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Dan Burn allowed the ball to go out.
72
Update Update
Joe Willock from Newcastle United committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Bruno Fernandes from Manchester United earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
71
Update Update
Kobbie Mainoo of Manchester United has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
71
Update Update
Joe Willock from Newcastle United committed a foul.
70
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Noussair Mazraoui of Manchester United attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes.
68
Update Update
Kieran Trippier from Newcastle United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Matheus Cunha against Manchester United.
66
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box following a corner kick.
65
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Newcastle United after Kobbie Mainoo allowed the ball to go out of play.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noussair Mazraoui of Manchester United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
64
Update Update
Noussair Mazraoui commits a foul against Manchester United.
64
Update Update
Anthony Elanga from Newcastle United was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester United: Diogo Dalot comes on to replace Casemiro.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester United: Manuel Ugarte replaces Luke Shaw.
59
Update Update
Matheus Cunha from Manchester United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Update Update
Kieran Trippier from Newcastle United committed a foul.
57
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Newcastle United after Kobbie Mainoo allowed the ball to go out.
55
Update Update
Harry Maguire from Manchester United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Dan Burn commits a foul for Newcastle United.
54
Update Update
Joelinton from Newcastle United earned a free kick in an offensive position.
54
Update Update
Casemiro committed a foul for Manchester United.
53
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Newcastle United. Anthony Gordon takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper, Senne Lammens, who is positioned centrally in the goal. The assist came from Sandro Tonali.
49
Update Update
Noussair Mazraoui commits a foul against Manchester United.
49
Update Update
Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United earned a free kick on the left flank.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Dan Burn's clearance.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Newcastle United 1, Manchester United 1. Casemiro scores for Manchester United with a header from the middle of the penalty area.
45
Update Update
Fouled by Lewis Hall - Newcastle United. nnRephrased: Lewis Hall of Newcastle United committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Jacob Ramsey from Newcastle United has fallen to the ground, but the referee believes he is feigning injury.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Bryan Mbeumo from Manchester United takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it sails over the bar.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacob Ramsey of Newcastle United receives his second yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Matheus Cunha of Manchester United takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
45
Update Update
Bruno Fernandes has given away a penalty for Manchester United following a foul committed in the box.
45
Update Update
Newcastle United has been awarded a penalty! Anthony Gordon is brought down inside the box, resulting in the foul.
45
Update Update
Sandro Tonali from Newcastle United committed a foul.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Newcastle United takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Manchester United. Anthony Gordon steps up and successfully converts the penalty, striking it with his right foot straight into the middle of the net.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Joe Willock replaces Harvey Barnes.
45
Update Update
Noussair Mazraoui of Manchester United was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
45
Update Update
Matheus Cunha of Manchester United earned a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Newcastle United and Manchester United.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Joe Willock comes on to replace Harvey Barnes.
44
Update Update
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Bryan Mbeumo committed a foul against a Manchester United player.
43
Update Update
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
43
Update Update
Bryan Mbeumo commits a foul against Manchester United.
42
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Kobbie Mainoo from Manchester United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
41
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive play unfolds. Harvey Barnes from Newcastle United takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper Senne Lammens, who is positioned centrally in the goal. The assist came from Anthony Elanga of Manchester United.
39
Update Update
Luke Shaw of Manchester United committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Anthony Elanga from Newcastle United earned a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luke Shaw from Manchester United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
38
Update Update
Matheus Cunha of Manchester United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
38
Update Update
Joelinton commits a foul for Newcastle United.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joelinton from Newcastle United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bryan Mbeumo of Manchester United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
36
Update Update
Noussair Mazraoui of Manchester United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United earned a free kick on the left flank.
36
Update Update
Bryan Mbeumo commits a foul against Manchester United.
34
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Joelinton from Newcastle United attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
33
Update Update
Matheus Cunha from Manchester United has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Malick Thiaw of Newcastle United.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Kieran Trippier allows the ball to go out.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Lewis Hall allowed the ball to go out.
26
Update Update
Jacob Ramsey committed a foul against Newcastle United.
26
Update Update
Jacob Ramsey committed a foul against Newcastle United.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacob Ramsey of Newcastle United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
24
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
24
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Benjamin Sesko from Manchester United fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
24
Update Update
Sandro Tonali of Newcastle United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Benjamin Sesko commits a foul against Manchester United.
23
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Kieran Trippier from Newcastle United.
21
Update Update
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Bryan Mbeumo committed a foul against Manchester United.
20
Update Update
Luke Shaw from Manchester United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
18
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Luke Shaw of Manchester United.
17
Update Update
Harry Maguire from Manchester United committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Harry Maguire from Manchester United committed a foul.
14
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Harvey Barnes from Newcastle United attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
13
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Anthony Elanga from Newcastle United attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide.
11
Update Update
Kobbie Mainoo from Manchester United was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
11
Update Update
Kobbie Mainoo of Manchester United earned a free kick on the right flank.
9
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Harvey Barnes of Newcastle United takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist comes from Anthony Elanga.
9
Update Update
Noussair Mazraoui from Manchester United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Update Update
Anthony Elanga committed a foul against Newcastle United.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Matheus Cunha from Manchester United took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes.
3
Attempt Attempt
Close call! Lewis Hall from Newcastle United took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the target.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Newcastle United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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