Burnley vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Premier League
AFC Bournemouth
BOU
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match between Burnley and AFC Bournemouth has officially finished in a 0-0 draw. With AFC Bournemouth entering the fixture as the stronger team and clear favorites, holding a 51.7% pre-match win probability, this result represents a significant deviation from expectations. Burnley had just a 24% chance of victory and a 24.3% probability of a draw, meaning the final goalless outcome ultimately failed to align with the pre-match market. AFC Bournemouth dictated the pace, finishing the game with 62% possession compared to Burnley's 38%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it is not possible to determine whether the outcome was strictly consistent with either side's underlying scoring opportunities. Despite the unexpected draw, the overall efficiency shift for the match remained entirely in line with baselines. The contest was a disciplined affair, with no red cards issued to either team. Without any dismissals to impact the tactical balance or create numerical mismatches, Burnley successfully absorbed the visitors' heavy possession to maintain the 0-0 deadlock until the final whistle.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: AFC Bournemouth showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Burnley
AFC Bournemouth
Team Power Ranking
i
65.73
71.83
Burnley
AFC Bournemouth
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Burnley
AFC Bournemouth
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Burnley
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Burnley
Burnley
AFC Bournemouth
Burnley
AFC Bournemouth
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:00:09+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary