Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
The American Express Community Stadium Fri, 6 Mar - 2:07 PM
Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA
0 Winner 1
Arsenal ARS
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:07 PM
|
Goal
Bukayo Saka - 9'

CONTEXT

The match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal has officially finished, with the away side securing a 0-1 victory. Arsenal established their winning margin early, leading 0-1 at half-time, and held on through a disciplined second half that featured no red cards for either side to influence the game's flow. Heading into the fixture, Arsenal were recognized as the stronger team and pre-match favorites with a 56.6% market probability, while Brighton held an 18.6% chance of an upset and a draw stood at 24.8%. The final outcome was completely aligned with these pre-match market expectations. Notably, the result carried a significant deviation level of 43.4% driven by Arsenal's decisive performance. Stylistically, the match presented a contrasting picture. Brighton dominated the ball with 60% possession compared to Arsenal's 40%, but the home side could not convert that territorial control into an equalizer. Although expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to accurately assess whether the final scoreline aligned with the quality of chances created, the overall efficiency shift was in line with expectations. Arsenal successfully maximized their limited possession to validate their status as favorites and take all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arsenal showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Kavanagh
C. Kavanagh
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
D. Cook
D. Cook
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
I. Hussin
I. Hussin
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
D. Webb
D. Webb
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Brighton & Hove Albion F. Hürzeler
F. Hürzeler
VS
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
1.23
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.44
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: L
Everton Rank: D
Fulham Rank: L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Manchester City Rank: D
Burnley Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: W
Everton Rank: W
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: W
Aston Villa Rank: L
Brentford Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 5 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brighton & Hove Albion
18.56%
Draw
24.82%
Away Arsenal
56.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
40.21
74.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brighton & Hove Albion
Arsenal
Power Score
40.21
74.44
League Position
14
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brighton & Hove Albion — Opponent-weighted form score
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brighton & Hove Albion Arsenal

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brighton & Hove Albion

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brighton & Hove Albion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arsenal
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.83
21.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.88
23.83
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brighton & Hove Albion +0.23 Efficiency Index
vs
Arsenal -0.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Arsenal
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brighton & Hove Albion
vs
Arsenal
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brighton & Hove Albion Arsenal
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brighton & Hove Albion Arsenal
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Brighton & Hove Albion
Arsenal
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brighton & Hove Albion BHA Home
2 matches
Arsenal ARS Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0.98
xG
0.46
0.46
xGA
0.98

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:20:21+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:07 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium
The American Express Community Stadium
Capacity
31876
Attendance
31575
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Chris Kavanagh
Daniel Cook
Ian Hussin
David Webb

Statistics

Possession
BHA
58%
ARS
42%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 1
66 Dangerous attacks 35
60 Possession 40
4 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 14
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

23 Throwins 24
17 Successful Headers 20
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
13 Dribble Attempts 14
5 Successful Dribbles 5
95 Ball Safe 87
9 Goal Attempts 4
0 Assists 1
5 Goal Kicks 12
5 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

119 Attacks 83
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 70
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
470 Passes 322
52 Long Passes 61
23 Successful Long Passes 25
385 Successful Passes 226
7 Key Passes 6

Defensive

11 Interceptions 8
23 Tackles 16
1 Saves 2

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 7
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

14 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Yasin Ayari
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
Off the ball foul / 4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Olivier Boscagli
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
80'
Event
Christian Nørgaard → Martín Zubimendi
9th Substitution
Event
Yasin Ayari → Carlos Baleba
8th Substitution
78'
Event
H. Howell → Diego Gómez
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Joël Veltman → Mats Wieffer
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Danny Welbeck → Jack Hinshelwood
5th Substitution
69'
64'
Event
Riccardo Calafiori → Cristhian Mosquera
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Leandro Trossard → Gabriel Martinelli
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Kai Havertz → Viktor Gyökeres
2nd Substitution
Event
Diego Gómez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
Event
Yankuba Minteh → Kaoru Mitoma
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
11'
Event
Cristhian Mosquera
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'
Event
Bukayo Saka
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Yankuba Minteh from Brighton and Hove Albion earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
90
Update Update
Yankuba Minteh from Brighton and Hove Albion earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Yasin Ayari from Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yasin Ayari from Brighton and Hove Albion has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Gabriel Magalhães from Arsenal was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Danny Welbeck committed a foul for Brighton and Hove Albion.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Brighton and Hove Albion 0, Arsenal 1.
90
Update Update
Kai Havertz from Arsenal earned a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Kai Havertz of Arsenal takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Bart Verbruggen from Brighton and Hove Albion makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist comes from Leandro Trossard, who delivered a well-placed through ball.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Arsenal after a deflection off Bart Verbruggen.
86
Update Update
Leandro Trossard from Arsenal earned a free kick in the defensive area.
86
Update Update
Yasin Ayari from Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ferdi Kadioglu of Brighton and Hove Albion has been shown a yellow card.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ferdi Kadioglu of Brighton and Hove Albion has been shown a yellow card.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Christian Nørgaard replaces Martín Zubimendi.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Olivier Boscagli from Brighton and Hove Albion has been shown a yellow card.
79
Update Update
Offside call against Brighton and Hove Albion. Yankuba Minteh has been flagged for being in an offside position.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Yasin Ayari replaces Carlos Baleba.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Harry Howell replaces Diego Gómez.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Joël Veltman replaces Mats Wieffer.
74
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Leandro Trossard from Arsenal took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Jurriën Timber.
73
Update Update
Kai Havertz from Arsenal was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
73
Update Update
Fouled by Diego Gómez of Brighton and Hove Albion.
71
Update Update
Mats Wieffer from Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Eberechi Eze from Arsenal has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Danny Welbeck comes on to replace Jack Hinshelwood.
69
Update Update
Mats Wieffer committed a foul against Brighton and Hove Albion.
69
Update Update
Eberechi Eze of Arsenal has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
68
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Jack Hinshelwood from Brighton and Hove Albion attempted a header from the center of the box, but it narrowly missed the top right corner. The assist came from Jan Paul van Hecke.
67
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Carlos Baleba from Brighton and Hove Albion takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Yankuba Minteh.
66
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Martín Zubimendi of Arsenal attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to convert. The chance was set up by Declan Rice, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Arsenal after Carlos Baleba allowed the ball to go out.
63
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Kai Havertz from Arsenal fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Declan Rice.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Riccardo Calafiori comes on to replace Cristhian Mosquera.
61
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Arsenal after a deflection off Georginio Rutter.
60
Update Update
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Mats Wieffer from Brighton and Hove Albion attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area, but David Raya of Arsenal makes a crucial save, diving to his left to deny the effort.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brighton and Hove Albion after Leandro Trossard allowed the ball to go out.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Leandro Trossard comes on to replace Gabriel Martinelli.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Kai Havertz comes on to replace Viktor Gyökeres.
58
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Georginio Rutter from Brighton and Hove Albion takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but David Raya, the Arsenal goalkeeper, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Diego Gómez, who set him up with a header.
57
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Bukayo Saka of Arsenal attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went over the bar and to the left. The assist came from Viktor Gyökeres.
56
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Bukayo Saka from Arsenal took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
53
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jack Hinshelwood from Brighton and Hove Albion fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
52
Update Update
Diego Gómez commits a foul for Brighton and Hove Albion.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diego Gómez from Brighton and Hove Albion has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
52
Update Update
Declan Rice from Arsenal earned a free kick on the left flank.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brighton and Hove Albion after Piero Hincapié's defensive effort.
49
Update Update
Bukayo Saka committed a foul for Arsenal.
49
Update Update
Olivier Boscagli from Brighton and Hove Albion has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Olivier Boscagli from Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Eberechi Eze from Arsenal has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
Pascal Groß from Brighton and Hove Albion has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres from Arsenal committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Offside call against Brighton and Hove Albion. Jack Hinshelwood has been flagged for being offside.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the scoreline showing Brighton and Hove Albion 0, Arsenal 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Yankuba Minteh comes on to replace Kaoru Mitoma.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Yankuba Minteh comes on to replace Kaoru Mitoma.
44
Update Update
Jack Hinshelwood from Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
44
Update Update
Cristhian Mosquera from Arsenal has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Kaoru Mitoma from Brighton and Hove Albion takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Georginio Rutter.
39
Update Update
Carlos Baleba commits a foul for Brighton and Hove Albion.
39
Update Update
Eberechi Eze from Arsenal has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Bukayo Saka committed a foul for Arsenal.
38
Update Update
Ferdi Kadioglu from Brighton and Hove Albion has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
David Raya from Arsenal has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Kaoru Mitoma of Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Jack Hinshelwood of Brighton and Hove Albion attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Jan Paul van Hecke.
34
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
32
Update Update
Georginio Rutter from Brighton and Hove Albion has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Martín Zubimendi from Arsenal committed a foul.
32
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Martín Zubimendi of Arsenal.
31
Update Update
Georginio Rutter of Brighton and Hove Albion has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
31
Update Update
Cristhian Mosquera from Arsenal committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Ferdi Kadioglu of Brighton and Hove Albion was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres commits a foul on an Arsenal player.
28
Update Update
Gabriel Martinelli from Arsenal was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
28
Update Update
Diego Gómez from Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
26
Update Update
Kaoru Mitoma from Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
26
Update Update
Jurriën Timber from Arsenal was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
25
Update Update
Gabriel Magalhães from Arsenal committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Georginio Rutter from Brighton and Hove Albion has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
22
Update Update
Diego Gómez committed a foul against Brighton and Hove Albion.
22
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Carlos Baleba from Brighton and Hove Albion took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide.
22
Update Update
Piero Hincapié of Arsenal was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
20
Update Update
Pascal Groß from Brighton and Hove Albion earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
20
Update Update
Bukayo Saka committed a foul for Arsenal.
18
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Georginio Rutter from Brighton and Hove Albion fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
17
Update Update
Kaoru Mitoma from Brighton and Hove Albion was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Jurriën Timber from Arsenal committed a foul.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brighton and Hove Albion after Gabriel Magalhães allowed the ball to go out.
11
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cristhian Mosquera of Arsenal has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
11
Update Update
Cristhian Mosquera from Arsenal committed a foul.
11
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Kaoru Mitoma from Brighton and Hove Albion takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Georginio Rutter.
11
Update Update
Georginio Rutter from Brighton and Hove Albion earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Arsenal takes the lead against Brighton and Hove Albion, making it 1-0. Bukayo Saka scores with a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, placing it perfectly into the center of the net. The assist comes from Jurriën Timber.
7
Update Update
Mats Wieffer from Brighton and Hove Albion has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres committed a foul against Arsenal.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brighton and Hove Albion after Gabriel Magalhães allowed the ball to go out.
3
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Carlos Baleba from Brighton and Hove Albion fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets intercepted.
1
Update Update
Gabriel Magalhães from Arsenal was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Update Update
Jack Hinshelwood from Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Arsenal exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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