Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Etihad Stadium Fri, 6 Mar - 2:08 PM
Premier League
Manchester City MCI
2 – 2
Nottingham Forest NFO
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:08 PM
Antoine Semenyo - 31'
Rodri - 62'
Goal
|
Goal
Morgan Gibbs-White - 56'
Elliot Anderson - 76'

CONTEXT

The match between Manchester City and Nottingham Forest has finished in a 2-2 draw. Manchester City held the initial advantage, leading 1-0 at half-time, but Nottingham Forest successfully battled back in the second half to secure a share of the points. This outcome stands as a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating the heavily favored Manchester City. Before kickoff, the market gave the

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Manchester City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Ledger
S. Ledger
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
A. Howson
A. Howson
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
D. England
D. England
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
T. Bramall
T. Bramall
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
VS
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
2.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.94
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sunderland Rank: D
Nottingham Forest Rank: W
West Ham United Rank: W
Crystal Palace Rank: W
Sunderland Rank: W
Fulham Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Ham United Rank: W
Aston Villa Rank: L
Everton Rank: L
Manchester City Rank: L
Fulham Rank: L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Manchester City
68.15%
Draw
20.4%
Away Nottingham Forest
11.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.97
32.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
Power Score
68.97
32.96
League Position
2
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Manchester City Nottingham Forest

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Manchester City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nottingham Forest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Manchester City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nottingham Forest
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.86
32.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.83
36.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Manchester City +0.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Nottingham Forest -0.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Manchester City
vs
Nottingham Forest
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Manchester City Nottingham Forest
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Manchester City Nottingham Forest
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Manchester City MCI Home
2 matches
Nottingham Forest NFO Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
4
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
2.64
xG
1.04
1.04
xGA
2.64

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:21:14+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:08 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium
Etihad Stadium
Capacity
53400
Attendance
51965
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Scott Ledger
Akil Howson
Darren England
Thomas Bramall

Statistics

Possession
MCI
67%
NFO
33%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 2
21 Shots 9
96 Dangerous attacks 17
70 Possession 30
6 Corners 1
6 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

17 Throwins 6
16 Successful Headers 7
27 Dribble Attempts 11
52 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
2 Goal Kicks 13
14 Successful Dribbles 6
14 Goal Attempts 7
92 Ball Safe 82
2 Assists 2
0 Injuries 2
3 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

158 Attacks 67
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

16 Key Passes 7
92 Successful Passes Percentage 82
36 Long Passes 47
714 Successful Passes 269
774 Passes 329
24 Successful Long Passes 18
67 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

Defensive

6 Interceptions 6
2 Saves 3
10 Tackles 20

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 11
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

10 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Matz Sels
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Ryan Yates  → Morgan Gibbs-White
7th Substitution
90'
Event
Morato → Neco Williams
6th Substitution
Event
Savinho → Rayan Cherki
5th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Taiwo Awoniyi  → Igor Jesus
4th Substitution
Event
Jérémy Doku → Phil Foden
2nd Substitution
77'
Event
Abdukodir Khusanov → Rayan Aït-Nouri
3rd Substitution
77'
76'
Event
Elliot Anderson
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
63'
Event
Callum Hudson-Odoi → Nicolás Domínguez
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Nikola Milenković
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Rodri
Header / 3rd Goal
62'
60'
Event
Murillo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Morgan Gibbs-White
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Ibrahim Sangaré
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Antoine Semenyo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
31'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matz Sels of Nottingham Forest has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 2-2 between Manchester City and Nottingham Forest.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Savinho from Manchester City fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Rodri from Manchester City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Manchester City after Morato's defensive play.
90
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Savinho from Manchester City fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Ryan Yates from Nottingham Forest attempted a header from the center of the box following a corner kick.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nottingham Forest after Rúben Dias allowed the ball to go out.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Ryan Yates is coming on to replace Morgan Gibbs-White.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after a defensive play by Ola Aina.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Morato replaces Neco Williams.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Rodri from Manchester City attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box following a corner, but it went wide to the left.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bernardo Silva from Manchester City fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it gets blocked.
86
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Marc Guéhi of Manchester City heads the ball from close range, but it goes over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Bernardo Silva, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Neco Williams allowed the ball to go out.
84
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
84
Update Update
Elliot Anderson committed a foul on a Nottingham Forest player.
82
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Jérémy Doku of Manchester City takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes over the bar and to the left. The assist came from Rodri.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Savinho comes on to replace Rayan Cherki.
81
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
80
Update Update
Morgan Gibbs-White from Nottingham Forest committed a foul.
80
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Taiwo Awoniyi comes on to replace Igor Jesus.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Jérémy Doku comes on to replace Phil Foden.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Abdukodir Khusanov comes on to replace Rayan Aït-Nouri.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Manchester City 2, Nottingham Forest 2. Elliot Anderson scores for Nottingham Forest with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Callum Hudson-Odoi.
68
Update Update
Jair Cunha from Nottingham Forest earned a free kick on the right flank.
68
Update Update
Jair Cunha from Nottingham Forest earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
64
Update Update
Offside call against Manchester City. Rayan Cherki is caught in an offside position.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Callum Hudson-Odoi replaces Nicolás Domínguez.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nikola Milenkovic of Nottingham Forest has been shown a yellow card.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester City takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Nottingham Forest. Rodri heads the ball into the top center of the net from close range. The assist comes from Rayan Aït-Nouri, who delivered a precise cross following a corner kick.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Murillo allowed the ball to go out.
61
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Erling Haaland from Manchester City attempts a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Bernardo Silva.
60
Update Update
Erling Haaland of Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Update Update
Murillo committed a foul on a Nottingham Forest player.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Murillo of Nottingham Forest has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
59
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Igor Jesus from Nottingham Forest takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Morgan Gibbs-White.
58
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bernardo Silva from Manchester City takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Rodri.
58
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rayan Cherki of Manchester City fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Manchester City 1, Nottingham Forest 1. Morgan Gibbs-White scores for Nottingham Forest with a right-footed shot from close range into the left corner. The assist comes from Igor Jesus, who headed the ball after a quick counterattack.
54
Update Update
Rayan Aït-Nouri from Manchester City committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Morgan Gibbs-White from Nottingham Forest earned a free kick in the defensive area.
52
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Rayan Cherki from Manchester City took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Bernardo Silva.
50
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Rodri from Manchester City attempted a header from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Rayan Cherki, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Matz Sels allowed the ball to go out.
49
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Manchester City. Bernardo Silva takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Matz Sels makes a save, diving to his left. The assist came from Rúben Dias.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Ibrahim Sangaré commits a foul against Nottingham Forest.
45
Update Update
Rayan Aït-Nouri of Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ibrahim Sangaré from Nottingham Forest has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Manchester City leading Nottingham Forest 1-0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Manchester City leading Nottingham Forest 1-0.
43
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Erling Haaland of Manchester City attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Phil Foden, who delivered a precise through ball.
42
Update Update
Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Matheus Nunes from Manchester City committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Bernardo Silva commits a handball for Manchester City.
38
Update Update
Offside call against Nottingham Forest. Igor Jesus has been caught in an offside position.
37
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
35
Update Update
The match is currently on hold due to an injury to Rúben Dias from Manchester City.
34
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive move underway. Igor Jesus from Nottingham Forest takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Gianluigi Donnarumma, the goalkeeper for Manchester City, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Ibrahim Sangaré.
34
Update Update
Offside call against Nottingham Forest. Neco Williams has been flagged for being offside.
32
Update Update
Marc Guéhi committed a foul against Manchester City.
32
Update Update
Nicolás Domínguez from Nottingham Forest has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester City takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Nottingham Forest. Antoine Semenyo scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, placing the ball into the bottom left corner. The assist comes from Rayan Cherki.
29
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
29
Update Update
Antoine Semenyo committed a foul against Manchester City.
29
Update Update
Ola Aina from Nottingham Forest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Match interruption - Manchester City.
28
Update Update
Rayan Cherki committed a foul against Manchester City.
28
Update Update
Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Nottingham Forest! Morgan Gibbs-White takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Gianluigi Donnarumma, the Manchester City goalkeeper, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Nicolás Domínguez.
25
Update Update
Erling Haaland committed a foul for Manchester City.
25
Update Update
Nikola Milenkovic from Nottingham Forest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bernardo Silva from Manchester City fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Rayan Aït-Nouri.
23
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Phil Foden from Manchester City takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Matz Sels of Nottingham Forest makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Matheus Nunes.
22
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity gone begging. Phil Foden of Manchester City attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Matheus Nunes.
19
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Bernardo Silva from Manchester City takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box. However, Matz Sels of Nottingham Forest makes a save, pushing the ball to the right corner. The assist came from Rayan Cherki.
17
Update Update
Nicolás Domínguez from Nottingham Forest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Offside call against Nottingham Forest. Neco Williams has been flagged for being offside.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Ola Aina allowed the ball to go out.
12
Update Update
Phil Foden from Manchester City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
12
Update Update
Neco Williams commits a foul for Nottingham Forest.
10
Update Update
Nicolás Domínguez from Nottingham Forest earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
10
Update Update
Rayan Aït-Nouri from Manchester City committed a foul.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Antoine Semenyo from Manchester City attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Phil Foden.
1
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Morgan Gibbs-White from Nottingham Forest takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets deflected.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Manchester City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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