West Ham United vs Manchester City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
London Stadium Sat, 14 Mar - 8:00 PM
Premier League
West Ham United WHU
1 – 1
Manchester City MCI
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 8:00 PM
Konstantinos Mavropanos - 35'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Match is finished. West Ham United 1–1 Manchester City. The match ended in a draw. Manchester City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 29%–71%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Manchester City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Oliver

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Burt

1st Assistant

N. Greenhalgh

2nd Assistant

S. Allison

4th Official

West Ham United N. Simões Espírito Santo
N. Simões Espírito Santo
VS
Manchester City P. Lijnders
P. Lijnders
0.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.38
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Manchester United Rank: 91 D
Burnley Rank: 81 W
Chelsea Rank: 94 L
Sunderland Rank: 82 W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 87 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sunderland Rank: 82 D
Nottingham Forest Rank: 86 W
West Ham United Rank: 83 W
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 W
Sunderland Rank: 82 W
Fulham Rank: 87 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 8 - 34
34

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home West Ham United
20.58%
Draw
22.94%
Away Manchester City
56.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
82.59
96.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
West Ham United
Manchester City
Power Score
82.59
96.1
League Position
18
2
Global Rank
43
3

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
West Ham United — Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) West Ham United Manchester City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

West Ham United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Manchester City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

West Ham United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
6.38
39.23
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.23
6.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
West Ham United -3.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Manchester City +3.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
West Ham United
Manchester City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

West Ham United
vs
Manchester City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
West Ham United Manchester City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
West Ham United Manchester City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
West Ham United
Manchester City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

West Ham United WHU Home
5 matches
Manchester City MCI Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:42:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Pitch
M. Hermansen
Denmark
1 M. Hermansen
J. Todibo
France
25 J. Todibo
K. Mavropanos
Greece
15 K. Mavropanos
A. Disasi
France
4 A. Disasi
A. Wan-Bissaka
England
29 A. Wan-Bissaka
T. Souček
Czech Republic
28 T. Souček
M. Espanha Fernandes
Portugal
18 M. Espanha Fernandes
E. Diouf
Senegal
12 E. Diouf
J. Bowen
Substitution
England
20 (C) J. Bowen
P. Pereira de Jesus
Substitution
Portugal
19 P. Pereira de Jesus
V. Castellanos Giménez
Substitution
Argentina
11 V. Castellanos Giménez
Pitch
G. Donnarumma
Italy
25 G. Donnarumma
R. Aït Nouri
Substitution
Algeria
21 R. Aït Nouri
M. Guehi
England
15 M. Guehi
A. Khusanov
Uzbekistan
45 A. Khusanov
M. Nunes
Portugal
27 M. Nunes
Rodri
Spain
16 Rodri
N. O'Reilly
England
33 N. O'Reilly
B. Silva
Substitution
Portugal
20 (C) B. Silva
A. Semenyo
Substitution
England
42 A. Semenyo
O. Marmoush
Substitution
Egypt
7 O. Marmoush
E. Haaland
Norway
9 E. Haaland

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 14, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium :
London Stadium
Capacity :
59623
Attendance :
62459
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Stuart Burt
Nick Greenhalgh
Samuel Allison
Michael Oliver

Statistics

Possession
WHU
32%
MCI
68%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
0 Shots 11
17 Dangerous attacks 77
29 Possession 71
1 Corners 15
7 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
3 Substitutions 4
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Goal Attempts 16
1 Injuries 0
5 Successful Dribbles 11
21 Throwins 16
71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
64 Ball Safe 75
7 Dribble Attempts 25
7 Successful Headers 17
10 Goal Kicks 2

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
51 Attacks 154

Possession

28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
225 Successful Passes 673
75 Successful Passes Percentage 91
302 Passes 740
46 Long Passes 39
13 Successful Long Passes 21
1 Key Passes 18

Defensive

5 Saves 0
41 Duels Won 51
11 Interceptions 12
26 Tackles 7

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 33
1 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

14 Fouls 5
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

1
Mads Hermansen
Mads Hermansen Goalkeeper
7.44
4
Axel Disasi
Axel Disasi Defender
6.32
15
Konstantinos Mavropanos
Konstantinos Mavropanos Defender
8.43
25
Jean-Clair Todibo
Jean-Clair Todibo Defender
6.93
12
El Hadji Malick Diouf
El Hadji Malick Diouf Midfielder
6.71
18
Mateus Fernandes
Mateus Fernandes Midfielder
6.33
28
Tomáš Souček
Tomáš Souček Midfielder
7
29
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Aaron Wan-Bissaka Midfielder
6.25
11
Taty Castellanos
Taty Castellanos Attacker
6.35
17
Adama Traoré
Adama Traoré
Attacker75'
6.46
19
Pablo
Pablo Attacker
6.58
27
Soungoutou Magassa
Soungoutou Magassa
Midfielder64'
6.58
20
Jarrod Bowen
Jarrod Bowen (C) Attacker
6.97
55
Mohamadou Kanté
Mohamadou Kanté
Midfielder90+6'
Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper
6.4
15
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi Defender
7.41
21
Rayan Aït-Nouri
Rayan Aït-Nouri Defender
7.28
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku
Attacker60'
6.8
27
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes Defender
7.08
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender
6.97
16
Rodri
Rodri Midfielder
7.34
20
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva (C) Midfielder
7.66
4
Tijjani Reijnders
Tijjani Reijnders
Midfielder75'
7.05
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Midfielder
7.02
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Midfielder
6.47
47
Phil Foden
Phil Foden
Midfielder75'
6.53
7
Omar Marmoush
Omar Marmoush Attacker
7.28
10
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki
Midfielder60'
7.1
9
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland Attacker
6.97

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mohamadou Kanté → Jarrod Bowen 
7th Substitution
90+6'
Event
Mateus Fernandes
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Soungoutou Magassa
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
76'
Event
Adama Traoré → Taty Castellanos
6th Substitution
75'
75'
Event
Phil Foden → Antoine Semenyo
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Tijjani Reijnders → Bernardo Silva  
5th Substitution
Event
Soungoutou Magassa → Pablo 
3rd Substitution
64'
60'
Event
Jérémy Doku → Rayan Aït-Nouri
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Rayan Cherki → Omar Marmoush
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Bernardo Silva  
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Konstantinos Mavropanos
Header / 2nd Goal
35'
31'
Event
Bernardo Silva  
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
11'
Event
Omar Marmoush
Handball / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Erling Haaland from Manchester City takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
The attempt is denied. Rodri from Manchester City heads the ball from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Konstantinos Mavropanos allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Aaron Wan-Bissaka committed a foul against a West Ham United player.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Jean-Clair Todibo allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Konstantinos Mavropanos of West Ham United.
90
Update Update
Jérémy Doku of Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Mohamadou Kanté replaces Jarrod Bowen.
90
Attempt Attempt
A header attempt from Nico O'Reilly of Manchester City is thwarted. The shot, taken from the middle of the penalty area, is blocked. Rayan Cherki provided the assist for that play.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Marc Guéhi of Manchester City attempted a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but it went high and wide to the right after a corner kick.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Marc Guéhi of Manchester City attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to convert. The chance was set up by Tijjani Reijnders, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between West Ham United and Manchester City.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nico O'Reilly from Manchester City takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Marc Guéhi.
90
Update Update
Offside call against West Ham United. Adama Traoré has been flagged for being offside.
89
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes committed a foul against West Ham United.
89
Update Update
Rayan Cherki of Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mateus Fernandes of West Ham United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
87
Update Update
Matheus Nunes from Manchester City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
87
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes committed a foul against West Ham United.
85
Update Update
Jarrod Bowen from West Ham United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Nico O'Reilly from Manchester City committed a foul.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Mads Hermansen allowed the ball to go out.
84
Attempt Attempt
A shot was denied. Nico O'Reilly from Manchester City attempted a left-footed strike from the center of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Abdukodir Khusanov.
83
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
83
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes committed a foul against West Ham United.
83
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Tijjani Reijnders from Manchester City takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle and a considerable distance on the left. However, Mads Hermansen of West Ham United makes a fantastic save, keeping the ball out of the top right corner.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Soungoutou Magassa's defensive play.
78
Corner Corner
Another offensive push underway. Rayan Cherki from Manchester City takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but Mads Hermansen of West Ham United makes a great save, denying him in the top right corner.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Konstantinos Mavropanos allowed the ball to go out.
76
Update Update
Fouled by Soungoutou Magassa of West Ham United.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Soungoutou Magassa of West Ham United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
76
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Adama Traoré replaces Valentín Castellanos.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Tijjani Reijnders comes on to replace Bernardo Silva.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Phil Foden replaces Antoine Semenyo.
74
Update Update
El Hadji Malick Diouf from West Ham United was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
Antoine Semenyo committed a foul against Manchester City.
73
Update Update
Valentín Castellanos committed a foul against West Ham United.
73
Update Update
Marc Guéhi from Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
71
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Bernardo Silva from Manchester City fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Jérémy Doku.
70
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Erling Haaland from Manchester City attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Jérémy Doku.
68
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Marc Guéhi of Manchester City had a header from inside the six-yard box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Bernardo Silva, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
67
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Manchester City. Matheus Nunes takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Rodri, who delivered a precise through ball.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Mads Hermansen allowed the ball to go out.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jérémy Doku from Manchester City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after El Hadji Malick Diouf allowed the ball to go out.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Soungoutou Magassa replaces Pablo.
63
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Abdukodir Khusanov of Manchester City attempted a header from the center of the penalty area following a corner kick.
63
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rayan Cherki of Manchester City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Marc Guéhi.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Valentín Castellanos allowed the ball to go out.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after a deflection off Pablo.
61
Corner Corner
Another offensive push from Manchester City. Erling Haaland takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Mads Hermansen from West Ham United makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Rayan Cherki.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Mads Hermansen allowed the ball to go out.
60
Update Update
Offside call against West Ham United. Valentín Castellanos has been flagged for being in an offside position.
60
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
56
Update Update
Match interruption - Manchester City.
55
Update Update
Omar Marmoush from Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Axel Disasi committed a foul on a West Ham United player.
48
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Omar Marmoush from Manchester City took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. Bernardo Silva provided the assist.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Matheus Nunes from Manchester City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes over the bar and to the left. Rodri provided the assist.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at 1-1 between West Ham United and Manchester City.
45
Update Update
Matheus Nunes from Manchester City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Jarrod Bowen from West Ham United committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between West Ham United and Manchester City.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Antoine Semenyo of Manchester City took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Erling Haaland.
41
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes committed a foul against West Ham United.
41
Update Update
Omar Marmoush of Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Marc Guéhi of Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Aaron Wan-Bissaka committed a foul against West Ham United.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bernardo Silva of Manchester City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
36
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes of West Ham United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Bernardo Silva committed a foul for Manchester City.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Ham United after Abdukodir Khusanov allowed the ball to go out.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now West Ham United 1, Manchester City 1. Konstantinos Mavropanos scores with a header from close range, directing it into the top left corner. The assist comes from Jarrod Bowen, who delivered a precise cross following a corner kick.
33
Update Update
Offside call against West Ham United. Valentín Castellanos is caught in an offside position.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester City takes the lead against West Ham United, making it 1-0. Bernardo Silva finds the back of the net with a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side.
30
Update Update
Offside call against Manchester City. Omar Marmoush is caught in an offside position.
30
Update Update
El Hadji Malick Diouf from West Ham United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Antoine Semenyo committed a foul against Manchester City.
27
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Erling Haaland of Manchester City attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to convert. The cross was delivered by Rayan Aït-Nouri.
24
Update Update
Aaron Wan-Bissaka committed a foul against a West Ham United player.
24
Update Update
Erling Haaland of Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
23
Update Update
Offside call against Manchester City. Omar Marmoush is caught in an offside position.
22
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Omar Marmoush from Manchester City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick, but it went wide to the left.
21
Update Update
Omar Marmoush from Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
21
Update Update
Omar Marmoush of Manchester City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Jean-Clair Todibo allowed the ball to go out.
11
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Omar Marmoush of Manchester City has been shown a yellow card for handling the ball.
11
Update Update
Omar Marmoush commits a handball against Manchester City.
11
Update Update
Omar Marmoush from Manchester City earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Jean-Clair Todibo - West Ham United.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Jean-Clair Todibo allowed the ball to go out.
7
Update Update
El Hadji Malick Diouf from West Ham United commits a handball.
5
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rayan Aït-Nouri from Manchester City fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Rodri.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Mateus Fernandes allowed the ball to go out.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after El Hadji Malick Diouf allowed the ball to go out.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after a deflection off Jean-Clair Todibo.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Manchester City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

West Ham United vs Manchester City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premier League, England View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.