Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
ŠRC Velika Gorica
Tomorrow - 1:30 PM
1. HNL
Gorica
Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Lokomotiva Zagreb
KICKOFF :
Tomorrow - 1:30 PM
Round 30 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 16
CONTEXT
In the 1. HNL Regular Season, Gorica welcome Lokomotiva Zagreb to ŠRC Velika Gorica for what promises to be a closely contested affair. Sitting in eighth place, the home side holds a slight edge in overall power scoring with 19.17 compared to the visitors' 16.91, giving them a 2.3 point advantage. Recent form shows Gorica with a 33.33 score from six matches, including a narrow loss away to Hajduk Split, while Lokomotiva Zagreb, in seventh, earned a victory at home against Istra 1961 but carries a lower 27.78 form rating. Both teams have recorded mixed results of late, setting the stage for an intriguing battle where home advantage could play a key role. With the season progressing, these mid-table sides are each seeking to climb the standings through improved consistency and positive results in matches like this one.
TL;DR
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Structural: Close mid-table positioning (8th vs 7th) at ŠRC Velika Gorica with Gorica holding a clear power score edge.
-
Form: Gorica slightly ahead in form (33.33 vs 27.78), though both sides have won just one of their last six games.
-
Squad: No significant squad disruptions reported, allowing both managers to field competitive starting elevens.
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Efficiency: Efficiency remains an area with limited insights, suggesting the match may be decided by execution in key moments.
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Transition: Effective transition play will be crucial as Gorica seeks to use home support to launch attacks against Lokomotiva's defense.
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Set pieces: Set piece situations feature low confidence metrics and proxy data, with no team showing strong reliance or success.
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xVariable: The 2.3 point power advantage serves as a key variable favoring the home team in this balanced encounter.
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Market: Gorica 42.3% (Δ+0.2%) | Draw 28.4% (Δ+0%) | Lokomotiva Zagreb 29.3% (Δ-0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25
vs Team A
Feb 1
vs Team B
Feb 8
vs Team C
M. Carević
VS
N. Jelavić
1.05
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split
Rank:
L
Varaždin
Rank:
D
Rijeka
Rank:
W
Osijek
Rank:
D
Slaven Koprivnica
Rank:
D
Dinamo Zagreb
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961
Rank:
W
Vukovar
Rank:
D
Dinamo Zagreb
Rank:
L
Hajduk Split
Rank:
L
Varaždin
Rank:
D
Rijeka
Rank:
L
10
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 10 - 11
11
No sidelined player data available.
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Gorica
42.28%
Draw
28.4%
Lokomotiva Zagreb
29.32%
Movement
Changes since opening
Gorica
+0.21%
Draw
+0.02%
Lokomotiva Zagreb
-0.22%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.17
16.91
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Power Score
19.17
16.91
League Position
8
7
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Gorica
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiva Zagreb
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Gorica Lokomotiva Zagreb
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Gorica
Gorica
Home
31
matches
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Away
Match Record
10
Wins
11
10
Draws
10
11
Losses
10
Goals
43
Goals Scored
53
53
Goals Conceded
43
-10
Goal Difference
+10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:02:23+00:00
STARTING XI - EXPECTED
71 D. Matijaš
45 S. Peric
4 J. Filipović
5 M. Leš
22 Ž. Trontelj
36 A. Kavelj
7 O. Bakić
25 B. Bogojević
24 D. Pavičić
64 T. Epailly
11 S. Wisdom Aondowase
12 J. Posavec
17 M. Pajač
16 L. Dajčer
20 D. Kolinger
23 M. Vešović
11 M. Šušak
6 B. Bošković
28 L. Belcar
10 M. Subotic
15 A. Stojaković
29 J. Vasilj
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
ŠRC Velika Gorica
Capacity
8000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Next Match
Gorica
vs
Vukovar
League: 1. HNL
Kickoff: Wed, 22 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Stadion Gradski vrt
Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
Slaven Koprivnica
League: 1. HNL
Kickoff: Tue, 21 Apr - 2:00 PM
Venue: Stadion Kranjčevićeva
Expected Lineup
Manager ▼
M. Carević
Coach
Starting XI ▼
71
Davor Matijas
Goalkeeper
6.77 22
Zan Trontelj
Midfielder
6.92 24
Domagoj Pavicic
Midfielder
6.77 25
Bruno Bogojevic
Midfielder
6.68 64
Théo Epailly
Midfielder
6.61 11
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Centre Forward
6.57 4
Jakov Filipovic
Centre Back
6.83 5
Mateo Les
Left Back
6.53 7
Ognjen Bakic
Central Midfield
6.64 36
Ante Kavelj
Central Midfield
6.84 45
Stefan Peric
Right Back
6.66 Substitutes ▼
8
Iker Pozo
7.09 10
Jurica Prsir
6.91 12
Muhamed Sahinovic
7.04 14
Stjepan Kucis
6.61 18
Ivan Fiolic
6.52 19
Marijan Cabraja
7.05 20
Luka Vrzic
6.69 30
Darijan Zarkov
6.8 32
Elvir Durakovic
6.61 35
Zvonimir Josic
6.52 50
Ante Erceg
6.85 99
Medin Gashi
6.6 Manager ▼
N. Jelavić
Coach
Starting XI ▼
12
Josip Posavec
Goalkeeper
6.71 29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Centre Forward
6.65 6
Blaz Boskovic
Defensive Midfield
6.88 10
Matija Subotic
Attacking Midfield
6.67 11
Mirko Susak
Defensive Midfield
6.59 15
Aleks Stojakovic
Right Wing
6.78 16
Luka Dajcer
Left Back
6.57 17
Marko Pajac
Left Back
7.06 20
Denis Kolinger
Right Back
6.71 23
Marko Vesovic
Right Back
6.88 28
Leon Belcar
Left Wing
6.73 Substitutes ▼
2
Teodor Kralevski
7
Aleksandar Trajkovski
6.73 9
Ibrahim Sabra
6.74 14
Marcel Lorber
6.44 18
Khalil Ben Youssef
6.74 19
Franjo Posavac
6.03 25
Pavle Smiljanic
30
Dusan Vukovic
6.5 32
Luka Savatovic
7.13 33
Dimitrije Kamenovic
6.44 CONCLUSION
Gorica enter this match as the stronger side according to power metrics and will look to leverage their home ground to secure a vital three points against a competitive Lokomotiva Zagreb. While the visitors have shown flashes of quality with a recent win, their overall form lags slightly behind. The close league positions indicate a tight encounter where small margins will decide the outcome. Expect a tactical battle with both teams focusing on solid defensive structures before launching attacks. Ultimately, the home advantage and better power score tilt the scales toward Gorica, but Lokomotiva possess enough quality to earn a share of the spoils if they capitalize on any lapses in concentration.