Degerfors vs Elfsborg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Stora Valla Tomorrow - 5:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Degerfors Degerfors
Versus
Elfsborg ELF
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 5:00 PM
Round 3 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Degerfors host Elfsborg at Stora Valla in the Regular Season of the 2026 Allsvenskan. The home side are in 10th position in the league while the away side are in third position. Degerfors' season form reads W3 D1 L2 from 6 matches. Their last outing was a Win away at Halmstad. Elfsborg's season form reads W2 D1 L3 from 6 matches. Their last outing was a Draw away at Västerås SK. The form of both teams has been mixed in recent weeks. This match offers Degerfors a chance to pick up points at home against a team higher in the standings.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Degerfors hold a +2.8 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Degerfors sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Degerfors show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Degerfors have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Degerfors carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Degerfors hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Degerfors 30.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29.4% (Δ+0%) | Elfsborg 39.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Degerfors H. Goitom
H. Goitom
VS
Elfsborg B. Hamberg
B. Hamberg
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Halmstad Rank: W
Sirius Rank: L
Brommapojkarna Rank: W
Hammarby Rank: D
Öster Rank: W
Halmstad Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Västerås SK Rank: D
IFK Göteborg Rank: W
Hammarby Rank: L
AIK Rank: L
Sirius Rank: L
Öster Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Degerfors
30.84%
Draw
29.39%
Away Elfsborg
39.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.39
17.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Degerfors
Elfsborg
Power Score
20.39
17.56
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Degerfors — Opponent-weighted form score
Elfsborg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Degerfors Elfsborg

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Degerfors Degerfors Home
8 matches
Elfsborg ELF Away
Match Record
1
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
7
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:03:31+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Igonen
38 M. Igonen
D. Sundgren
6 D. Sundgren
S. Ohlsson
16 S. Ohlsson
J. Pikkarainen
5 J. Pikkarainen
S. Diatara
18 S. Diatara
L. Fritzson
14 L. Fritzson
K. Karlsson
4 K. Karlsson
N. Girmai
22 N. Girmai
E. Barsoum
20 E. Barsoum
M. Rafferty
10 M. Rafferty
D. Vukojevic
11 D. Vukojevic
I. Pettersson
31 I. Pettersson
T. Poppler-Isherwood
4 T. Poppler-Isherwood
R. Wikström
6 R. Wikström
R. Mohammed
2 R. Mohammed
N. Hult
23 N. Hult
J. Magnússon
18 J. Magnússon
S. Olsson
10 S. Olsson
S. Hedlund
15 S. Hedlund
A. Zeneli
9 A. Zeneli
T. Silverholt
11 T. Silverholt
J. Beck
19 J. Beck

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stora Valla
Capacity
7500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniel Yng
Glenn Nyberg
Tillsättes Senare
Anton Sjöberg

Expected Lineup

Referee : Glenn Nyberg

Starting XI ▼

38
Matvei Igonen
Matvei Igonen Goalkeeper
6.34
11
Dijan Vukojevic
Dijan Vukojevic Centre Forward
6.4
20
Elias Barsoum
Elias Barsoum Attacking Midfield
6.57
18
Samba Diatara
Samba Diatara Left Back
6.74
10
Marcus Rafferty
Marcus Rafferty Left Wing
6.77
5
Juhani Pikkarainen
Juhani Pikkarainen Left Back
6.88
6
Daniel Sundgren
Daniel Sundgren Right Back
7.21
16
Sebastian Ohlsson
Sebastian Ohlsson Right Back
7.08
14
Ludvig Fritzson
Ludvig Fritzson Defensive Midfield
6.82
4
Kazper Karlsson
Kazper Karlsson Defensive Midfield
6.36
22
Nahom Girmai Netabay
Nahom Girmai Netabay Right Wing
7.4
Referee : Glenn Nyberg

Starting XI ▼

31
Isak Pettersson
Isak Pettersson Goalkeeper
6.5
15
Simon Hedlund
Simon Hedlund Midfielder
6.71
23
Niklas Hult
Niklas Hult Midfielder
7.2
19
Julius Beck
Julius Beck Attacker
6.49
11
T. Silverholt
T. Silverholt Centre Forward
6.95
9
Arbër Zeneli
Arbër Zeneli Attacker
6.87
18
J. Magnússon
J. Magnússon Central Midfield
7.12
2
Rufai Mohammed
Rufai Mohammed Right Back
6.76
10
S. Olsson
S. Olsson Central Midfield
7.47
4
Thomas Isherwood
Thomas Isherwood Left Back
6.82
6
R. Wikström
R. Wikström Centre Back
6.92

CONCLUSION

Degerfors possesses the stronger pre-match profile with a power advantage of 2.8 points over Elfsborg. Despite Elfsborg ranking third in the league compared to Degerfors in tenth, power scores and recent form favor the home side. Projections select Elfsborg as the leader with the highest share, so the projection and structural signals diverge. The home side recorded three wins from six matches compared to two for Elfsborg. Both teams should look to capitalize on set piece opportunities, though the available data for this area carries low confidence for each side.

Related Football Previews