Degerfors vs Elfsborg Prediction, Preview and Stats
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Stora Valla
Fri, 17 Apr - 5:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Degerfors
Degerfors
0
1
1
Elfsborg
ELF
Full Time
Fri, 17 Apr
5:00 PM
Round 3 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Jul 10
CONTEXT
Degerfors dominated possession with 66% throughout the match against Elfsborg but suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat. The game remained goalless at halftime, with Elfsborg finding the breakthrough in the second half to secure victory. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Degerfors failed to capitalize on their territorial advantage, resulting in a significant 66% structural deviation favoring the visitors. No red cards disrupted play, and the outcome diverged from pre-match market probabilities, where Degerfors held a slight edge at 35.9% over Elfsborg's 34%. Efficiency metrics aligned with expectations, though xG data was unavailable to assess underlying chance creation. This result underscores Elfsborg's effectiveness despite limited ball control.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Result exhibited a 66% significant deviation favoring Elfsborg.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
-
Market alignment: Market alignment not achieved.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
-
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or notable events impacted the outcome.
-
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in play.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
G. Nyberg
•
25 matches in sample
Avg. cards
0.12
0.12
Fouls / match
0.52
Yellow cards / match
0.12
Red cards / match
0
Penalties / match
0
Other match officials
D. Yng
1st Assistant
T. Senare
4th Official
A. Sjöberg
2nd Assistant
H. Goitom
VS
B. Hamberg
1.67
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Halmstad
Rank:
W
Sirius
Rank:
L
Brommapojkarna
Rank:
W
Hammarby
Rank:
D
Öster
Rank:
W
Halmstad
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Västerås SK
Rank:
D
IFK Göteborg
Rank:
W
Hammarby
Rank:
L
AIK
Rank:
L
Sirius
Rank:
L
Öster
Rank:
W
1
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 5
5
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Degerfors
35.91%
Draw
30.12%
Elfsborg
33.96%
Movement
Changes since opening
Degerfors
+35.54%
Draw
+17.58%
Elfsborg
-53.13%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.28
18.3
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Degerfors
Elfsborg
Power Score
19.28
18.3
League Position
10
1
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Degerfors
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Elfsborg
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Degerfors Elfsborg
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Degerfors
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Elfsborg
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Degerfors
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Elfsborg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.68
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Degerfors
-0.83
Efficiency Index
vs
Elfsborg
+0.83
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
Elfsborg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Degerfors
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Elfsborg
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Degerfors
Elfsborg
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Degerfors
Elfsborg
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
Elfsborg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Degerfors
vs
Elfsborg
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Degerfors
Elfsborg
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Degerfors
0.17
Elfsborg
0.15
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Degerfors
Elfsborg
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Degerfors
0.02
Elfsborg
0.00
Degerfors
Elfsborg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- ELF had peak pressure around 65'.
- ELF started the game with stronger pressure.
Degerfors Pressure
ELF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
ELF reached the top pressure at 65' (67.68).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Degerfors
Degerfors
Home
8
matches
Elfsborg
ELF
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
7
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:28+00:00
STARTING XI
Degerfors
Elfsborg
Match Formation
4-4-2
Match Formation
3-4-3
38 M. Igonen
16 S. Ohlsson
5 J. Pikkarainen
18 S. Diatara
10 M. Rafferty
22 N. Girmai
20 E. Barsoum
14 L. Fritzson
11 D. Vukojevic
General Information
📅
Date & Time :
Apr 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
🏆
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 3 · Regular Season
🏟️
Stadium :
Stora Valla
👥
Capacity :
7500
🌱
Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️
Referees :
Daniel Yng
Glenn Nyberg
Tillsättes Senare
Anton Sjöberg
Next Match
Degerfors
vs
AIK
League: Allsvenskan
Kickoff: Thu, 23 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Stora Valla
Elfsborg
vs
Djurgården
League: Allsvenskan
Kickoff: Wed, 22 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Borås Arena
Statistics
Possession
Degerfors
62%
ELF
38%
Top Statistics
0
Goals
1
0
Big Chances Created
1
8
Shots
6
47
Dangerous attacks
41
66
Possession
34
7
Corners
1
17
Free kicks
14
5
Yellow Cards
3
Match Overview
3
Goal Kicks
5
8
Dribble Attempts
9
29
Throwins
25
3
Successful Dribbles
1
38
Successful Dribbles Percentage
11
2
Hit Woodwork
0
3
Substitutions
5
115
Ball Safe
86
0
Injuries
3
7
Goal Attempts
6
Attacking
94
Attacks
83
0
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
82
Successful Passes Percentage
65
63
Long Passes
59
479
Passes
251
392
Successful Passes
164
28
Successful Long Passes
17
44
Successful Long Passes Percentage
29
4
Key Passes
2
Defensive
43
Duels Won
36
5
Interceptions
9
13
Tackles
12
2
Saves
2
Build-up
30
Total Crosses
9
7
Accurate Crosses
3
Discipline
14
Fouls
17
4
Offsides
2
Lineup
Degerfors
Referee :
Glenn Nyberg
Manager ▼
H. Goitom
Coach
Starting XI ▼
5
Juhani Pikkarainen
Defender
6.88
10
Marcus Rafferty
Midfielder
6.77
Substitutes ▼
Bench ▼
25
Rasmus Forsell
Goalkeeper
13
Gideon Yaw
Midfielder
6.66 19
Alexander Lindgren
Midfielder
21
Alexander Berisson
Attacker
27
Ziyad Salifu
Attacker
Elfsborg
Referee :
Glenn Nyberg
Manager ▼
B. Hamberg
Coach
Starting XI ▼
8
Sebastian Holmén
Defender
6.77 15
Simon Hedlund
Midfielder
6.71 17
Per Frick
Attacker
7.12 Substitutes ▼
—
Unknown
76'
Bench ▼
1
Tim Erlandsson
Goalkeeper
24
F. Ihler
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+5'
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
8th Substitution
87'
85'
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
6th Substitution
76'
76'
7th Substitution
75'
5th Substitution
4th Substitution
65'
63'
2nd Substitution
63'
3rd Substitution
62'
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Marcus Rafferty
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
54'
52'
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
51'
Juhani Pikkarainen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
48'
1ST-HALF
37'
1st Substitution
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'
CONCLUSION
Elfsborg's 1-0 win over possession-heavy Degerfors highlights superior conversion from limited opportunities, overturning pre-match favoritism toward the home side. The significant deviation and market misalignment reflect an efficient away performance without reliance on structural advantages like red cards or major events. Lacking xG data limits precision on chance quality, but Degerfors' inability to score despite 66% possession points to finishing deficiencies. This outcome demonstrates how control does not guarantee results, rewarding Elfsborg's defensive solidity and timely strike.
Degerfors vs Elfsborg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
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Author
Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.