Grazer AK vs Ried Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Tomorrow - 5:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Grazer AK GAK
Versus
Ried Ried
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 5:30 PM
Round 5 Relegation Round

CONTEXT

Grazer AK host Ried at Merkur Arena in a pivotal Admiral Bundesliga Relegation Round clash for the 2025/2026 season. Power scores are virtually identical at 24.3 to 24.29, giving the home side a nominal edge yet signalling an evenly poised contest. Grazer AK sit 11th but enter with far better momentum, winning four of their last six matches. Ried occupy ninth spot yet have managed only two victories, one draw and three defeats across their previous six outings. The hosts went down away to Rheindorf Altach last time out while the visitors earned a draw at Wolfsberger AC. Both teams understand the stakes in the survival battle and will chase every point available. Limited underlying data adds uncertainty, yet the closeness of the projections confirms this should be a tense, competitive affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Relegation Round meeting at Merkur Arena pits 11th-placed Grazer AK against 9th-placed Ried in a survival scrap.
  • Form: Grazer AK strong with four wins from six, Ried weaker with two wins one draw three losses from six.
  • Squad: No major squad news available, both sides expected to select competitive starting elevens.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable, restricting analysis of chance creation and finishing quality.
  • Transition: Transition speed likely critical as both teams seek to punish errors in a balanced encounter.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece data limited with low confidence and proxy metrics in use for both clubs.
  • xVariable: xG information unavailable, proxy indicators suggest little to separate the sides.
  • Market: Grazer AK 34.6% (Δ-0.1%) | Draw 30.9% (Δ+0.2%) | Ried 34.6% (Δ-0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Grazer AK F. Feldhofer
F. Feldhofer
VS
Ried M. Senft
M. Senft
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rheindorf Altach Rank: L
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: W
WSG Tirol Rank: W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: W
WSG Tirol Rank: L
Ried Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolfsberger AC Rank: D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: W
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: L
WSG Tirol Rank: W
Austria Wien Rank: L
Grazer AK Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Grazer AK
34.56%
Draw
30.88%
Away Ried
34.56%

Movement

Changes since opening
Grazer AK
-0.1%
Draw
+0.19%
Ried
-0.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.3
24.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Grazer AK
Ried
Power Score
24.3
24.29
League Position
11
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score
Ried — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Grazer AK Ried

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Grazer AK GAK Home
10 matches
Ried Ried Away
Match Record
1
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
1
Goals
13
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
13
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:04:11+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
F. Stolz
12 F. Stolz
B. Owusu
82 B. Owusu
D. Pines
2 D. Pines
L. Vraa-Jensen
3 L. Vraa-Jensen
M. Olesen
6 M. Olesen
J. Italiano
14 J. Italiano
T. Schriebl
20 T. Schriebl
C. Lichtenberger
10 C. Lichtenberger
L. Klassen
32 L. Klassen
R. Harakaté
22 R. Harakaté
M. Grosse
11 M. Grosse
A. Leitner
1 A. Leitner
O. Steurer
30 O. Steurer
M. Sollbauer
23 M. Sollbauer
N. Havenaar
5 N. Havenaar
P. Pomer
17 P. Pomer
M. Maart
6 M. Maart
M. Rasner
8 M. Rasner
N. Bajlicz
28 N. Bajlicz
F. Rossdorfer
18 F. Rossdorfer
K. Mutandwa
7 K. Mutandwa
A. Bajic
12 A. Bajic

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 5 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Merkur Arena
Capacity
16764
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Florian Jäger
Robert Steinacher
Patrick Csobadi
Manuel Baumann

Expected Lineup

Referee : Florian Jäger

Starting XI ▼

12
Franz Stolz
Franz Stolz Goalkeeper
6.81
14
Jacob Italiano
Jacob Italiano Midfielder
6.91
32
Leon Klassen
Leon Klassen Midfielder
7.02
11
Mark Grosse
Mark Grosse Attacker
7.14
22
Ramiz Harakate
Ramiz Harakate Attacker
7.05
3
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen Left Back
6.6
6
Mathias Olesen
Mathias Olesen Defensive Midfield
6.89
20
Thorsten Schriebl
Thorsten Schriebl Central Midfield
6.91
10
Christian Lichtenberger
Christian Lichtenberger Central Midfield
6.62
82
Beres Owusu
Beres Owusu Right Back
6.87
2
Donovan Pines
Donovan Pines Centre Back
6.94
Referee : Florian Jäger

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Leitner
Andreas Leitner Goalkeeper
6.86
17
Philipp Pomer
Philipp Pomer Midfielder
6.96
28
Nicolas Bajlicz
Nicolas Bajlicz Midfielder
6.75
12
Ante Bajic
Ante Bajic Attacker
6.91
18
Fabian Rossdorfer
Fabian Rossdorfer Attacker
6.69
7
Kingstone Mutandwa
Kingstone Mutandwa Centre Forward
7.01
5
Benjamin Garcia
Benjamin Garcia Right Back
6.98
23
Michael Sollbauer
Michael Sollbauer Centre Back
6.8
30
Oliver Steurer
Oliver Steurer Left Back
6.86
8
Martin Rasner
Martin Rasner Central Midfield
6.5
6
Yusuf Maart
Yusuf Maart Central Midfield
6.99

CONCLUSION

This relegation round fixture promises to be a tense tactical battle with little separating the sides on paper. Grazer AK's sharper recent form offers a platform to dictate proceedings in front of their own supporters, where they will target quick breaks and aerial duels. Ried arrive motivated to improve their away record and can capitalise on any complacency. With efficiency and set-piece insights restricted by missing data, managers must rely on organisation and intensity. A narrow home success is plausible given the slight power edge and venue factor, yet the near-identical projections make a share of the spoils a realistic outcome. Expect a hard-fought match where one moment of quality or defensive lapse could prove decisive.

Related Football Previews