Sampdoria vs Monza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Tomorrow - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Sampdoria SAM
Versus
Monza MON
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 6:30 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

At the historic Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Sampdoria host Monza in an intriguing Serie B clash as part of the 2025/2026 regular season. League standings show the home team in 12th spot while their opponents sit comfortably in third, signaling clear ambitions for promotion. Advanced power ratings further underline this disparity with Monza registering 32.39 against the hosts' 24.82 to establish a notable 7.6 point edge. Fresh from respective victories, Sampdoria triumphed away at Pescara and Monza prevailed on home soil versus Bari 1908. The former have managed three wins one draw and two losses in six matches whereas the latter feature two wins three draws plus one defeat over identical fixtures. Supporters anticipate a vibrant atmosphere where tactical battles and individual brilliance could decide the outcome in this midweek encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural: League positions and power scores heavily favor third-placed Monza over 12th-placed Sampdoria.
  • Form: Recent outings reveal both sides winning their last match yet Sampdoria hold a slightly better win rate.
  • Squad: Superior squad strength tilts toward the away team based on overall power assessment.
  • Efficiency: Current efficiency data remains limited preventing thorough comparison between the two squads.
  • Transition: Transition opportunities may benefit Monza given their higher power rating and tactical setup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece reliance shows low confidence levels with proxy metrics employed for analysis.
  • xVariable: Underlying variables suggest an advantage for the promotion-chasing visitors in key areas.
  • Market: Sampdoria 27.7% (Δ0%) | Draw 28.8% (Δ0%) | Monza 43.5% (Δ0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Sampdoria Attilio Lombardo
Attilio Lombardo
VS
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.15
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pescara Rank: W
Empoli Rank: W
Avellino Rank: W
Carrarese Rank: L
Venezia Rank: D
Frosinone Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Catanzaro Rank: D
Venezia Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: D
Palermo Rank: W
Spezia Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sampdoria
27.74%
Draw
28.76%
Away Monza
43.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.82
32.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sampdoria
Monza
Power Score
24.82
32.39
League Position
12
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sampdoria Monza

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sampdoria SAM Home
3 matches
Monza MON Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
2
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:04:40+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
T. Martinelli
50 T. Martinelli
A. Di Pardo
29 A. Di Pardo
O. Abildgaard
28 O. Abildgaard
M. Viti
2 M. Viti
S. Giordano
21 S. Giordano
F. Conti
33 F. Conti
S. Esposito
94 S. Esposito
T. Begić
11 T. Begić
Antonín Barák
72 Antonín Barák
N. Pierini
77 N. Pierini
M. Brunori Sandri
99 M. Brunori Sandri
D. Thiam
20 D. Thiam
L. Lucchesi
3 L. Lucchesi
F. Delli Carri
15 F. Delli Carri
L. Ravanelli
13 L. Ravanelli
P. Dentello Azzi
7 P. Dentello Azzi
M. Pessina
32 M. Pessina
P. Mba Obiang Avomo
14 P. Mba Obiang Avomo
S. Birindelli
19 S. Birindelli
D. Carvalho
47 D. Carvalho
A. Colpani
28 A. Colpani
A. Petagna
37 A. Petagna

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity
33205
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

50
Tommaso Martinelli
Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper
6.83
99
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Matteo Luigi Brunori Centre Forward
6.71
28
Oliver Abildgaard
Oliver Abildgaard Right Back
6.94
11
Tjas Begic
Tjas Begic Right Wing
6.86
33
Francesco Conti
Francesco Conti Defensive Midfield
6.76
2
Mattia Viti
Mattia Viti Left Back
6.72
21
Simone Giordano
Simone Giordano Left Back
6.69
29
Alessandro Di Pardo
Alessandro Di Pardo Right Back
6.97
72
Antonín Barák
Antonín Barák Attacking Midfield
6.6
77
Nicholas Pierini
Nicholas Pierini Left Wing
7.2
94
Salvatore Esposito
Salvatore Esposito Defensive Midfield
7.44

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
6.99
7
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi Midfielder
7.06
19
Samuele Birindelli
Samuele Birindelli Midfielder
6.96
28
Andrea Colpani
Andrea Colpani Midfielder
7.06
47
Dany Mota
Dany Mota Midfielder
6.87
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna Centre Forward
6.9
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Centre Back
6.82
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi Left Back
6.64
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Right Back
7.07
14
Pedro Obiang
Pedro Obiang Central Midfield
6.96
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina Central Midfield
7.12

CONCLUSION

Home advantage might allow Sampdoria to compete evenly early on despite the visitors' superior metrics. Monza however carry stronger momentum from their position near the summit and could control large portions of play. Key players need to perform at their peak particularly in midfield where transitions occur rapidly. Although detailed efficiency numbers stay hidden this fixture still promises excitement through committed defending and creative attacks. In the end the away side look more likely to emerge victorious but the hosts possess enough quality to secure a positive result if they capitalize on any lapses. Expect committed football from both collectives at the Luigi Ferraris.

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