Lens vs Toulouse Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Bollaert-Delelis Tomorrow - 6:45 PM
Ligue 1
Lens LEN
Versus
Toulouse TOU
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 6:45 PM
Round 30 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Lens, currently second in Ligue 1, face Toulouse who sit in tenth position at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in this Regular Season fixture of the 2025/2026 campaign. The home team holds a notable power advantage of nine points and will be keen to build on their solid standing after a narrow loss away to LOSC Lille. Toulouse also fell to Lille in their previous match and have a slightly inferior recent record. With the passionate home support, Lens are well-placed to control proceedings and exploit any defensive lapses from the visitors. That said, Toulouse have the tools to spring a surprise on the counter if Lens overcommit in attack. This matchup highlights the contrast between a team pushing for the top and one aiming to consolidate mid-table security.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Lens hold 9pt power edge as league runners-up hosting 10th-placed Toulouse.
  • Form: Both lost to Lille last time. Lens W2 D1 L3, Toulouse W2 D0 L4 in last six.
  • Squad: No major absences reported; both sides expected near full strength.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable; Lens likely to dictate tempo at home.
  • Transition: Lens strong in home transitions while Toulouse look to counter quickly.
  • Set pieces: Limited data with low confidence; proxy suggests even set-piece battle.
  • xVariable: Trends indicate home dominance given positions and venue.
  • Market: Lens 61.4% (Δ-0.2%) | Draw 22% (Δ+0%) | Toulouse 16.6% (Δ+0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Lens P. Sage
P. Sage
VS
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
2.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
LOSC Lille Rank: L
Angers SCO Rank: W
Lorient Rank: L
Metz Rank: W
Strasbourg Rank: D
Monaco Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
LOSC Lille Rank: L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
Lorient Rank: W
Metz Rank: W
Olympique Marseille Rank: L
Rennes Rank: L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 5 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lens
61.42%
Draw
21.96%
Away Toulouse
16.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lens
-0.17%
Draw
+0.01%
Toulouse
+0.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.77
18.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lens
Toulouse
Power Score
27.77
18.75
League Position
2
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lens — Opponent-weighted form score
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lens Toulouse

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lens LEN Home
19 matches
Toulouse TOU Away
Match Record
10
Wins
4
5
Draws
5
4
Losses
10
Goals
23
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
23
+12
Goal Difference
-12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:04:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
R. Risser
France
40 R. Risser
N. Čelik
Bosnia and Herzegovina
4 N. Čelik
P. Ganiou
France
25 P. Ganiou
M. Sarr
France
20 M. Sarr
S. Abdul Hamid
Saudi Arabia
23 S. Abdul Hamid
M. Sangare
Mali
8 M. Sangare
A. Thomasson
France
28 A. Thomasson
M. Udol
France
14 M. Udol
F. Thauvin
France
10 F. Thauvin
W. Saïd
France
22 W. Saïd
O. Édouard
France
11 O. Édouard
G. Restes
France
1 G. Restes
R. Nicolaisen
Denmark
2 R. Nicolaisen
S. Koumbassa
35 S. Koumbassa
C. Cresswell
England
4 C. Cresswell
D. Methalie
24 D. Methalie
P. Diop
Senegal
18 P. Diop
C. Cásseres Yepes
Venezuela
23 C. Cásseres Yepes
D. Sidibé
France
19 D. Sidibé
M. Sauer
Slovakia
77 M. Sauer
A. Dønnum
Norway
15 A. Dønnum
E. Correia da Silva
Brazil
20 E. Correia da Silva

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Capacity
38223
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jérémie Pignard
Benjamin Pages
Hicham Zakrani
Aurélien Petit

Lineup

Referee : Jérémie Pignard

Starting XI ▼

40
Robin Risser
Robin Risser Goalkeeper
6.95
4
Nidal Celik
Nidal Celik Defender
6.57
14
Matthieu Udol
Matthieu Udol Defender
7.08
20
Malang Sarr
Malang Sarr Defender
7.14
23
Saud Abdulhamid
Saud Abdulhamid Defender
6.7
25
Ismaëlo Ganiou
Ismaëlo Ganiou Defender
6.84
8
Mamadou Sangaré
Mamadou Sangaré Midfielder
7.19
10
Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin Midfielder
7.34
22
Wesley Saïd
Wesley Saïd Midfielder
7.17
28
Adrien Thomasson
Adrien Thomasson Midfielder
7.19
11
Odsonne Édouard
Odsonne Édouard Attacker
6.9
Referee : Jérémie Pignard

Starting XI ▼

1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
6.7
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen Defender
6.71
4
Charlie Cresswell
Charlie Cresswell Defender
7.1
19
Djibril Sidibé
Djibril Sidibé Defender
6.75
24
Dayann Methalie
Dayann Methalie Defender
6.46
35
Seny Koumbassa
Seny Koumbassa Defender
6.41
15
Aron Dønnum
Aron Dønnum Midfielder
7.31
18
Pape Demba Diop
Pape Demba Diop Midfielder
7.16
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Midfielder
7.05
77
Mario Sauer
Mario Sauer Midfielder
6.55
20
Emersonn
Emersonn Attacker
6.76

CONCLUSION

Lens enter as clear favourites and should use home advantage plus superior power ranking to press for victory against inconsistent Toulouse. Recent defeats to Lille show both sides have defensive work to do, yet the crowd at Stade Bollaert-Delelis often lifts the hosts in key moments. Toulouse need to tighten up away from home if they are to frustrate the second-placed side and claim a point. Expect Lens to control large spells and create the better chances, with their depth likely proving decisive late on. A home win would strengthen their title push while Toulouse continue their mid-table campaign.

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