Fiorentina vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Europa Conference League
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Fiorentina and Raków Częstochowa has officially finished, with Fiorentina securing a 2-1 victory at full-time. Following a tightly contested first half that ended level at 0-0, the home side managed to find their scoring touch to clinch the win in the second period. The match flowed without major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to either side. Fiorentina dictated the tempo of the game, controlling 58 percent of the possession compared to Raków Częstochowa’s 42 percent. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the final outcome was mathematically consistent with xG quality, Fiorentina's post-match efficiency shift was perfectly in line with general expectations. Pre-match market odds accurately anticipated this result, giving Fiorentina a 50.8 percent chance of victory, alongside a 25.8 percent probability for a draw and 23.4 percent for an away win. Because the stronger team ultimately won, the result fully aligned with the pre-match market. However, securing the three points still represented a significant deviation level of 49.2 percent for Fiorentina, underscoring that overcoming the resilient visitors required a decisive second-half effort.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Fiorentina showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
Team Power Ranking
i
74.57
52.84
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Fiorentina
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Fiorentina
⚠ Proxy
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-13T01:05:21+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary