Southampton vs Blackburn Rovers Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Mary's Stadium Tue, 14 Apr - 7:00 PM
Championship
Southampton SOU
3 Winner 0
Blackburn Rovers BBR
Full Time Tue, 14 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 45 Regular Season
Cyle Larin - 24'
Ryan Manning - 43'
Cameron Archer - 86'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Southampton and Blackburn Rovers is finished, with the full-time score 3-0 to Southampton. The result closely matched pre-match expectations, as the home side had been rated overwhelming favorites beforehand. Deviation was minimal at just 2.1 percent and favored Southampton, confirming them as the stronger team and producing an outcome that aligned fully with the pre-match projection. Southampton enjoyed 59 percent possession to Blackburn Rovers’ 41 percent, dictating the flow of the game from the opening whistle. They led 2-0 at the interval and added a third goal after the break. No red cards were issued and no major events disrupted proceedings. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and without available xG data the result simply reinforced the anticipated superiority of the home side. Overall the contest followed a predictable path, with Southampton converting their control into a comfortable victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Southampton showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Smith
J. Smith
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
VS
Blackburn Rovers M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
1.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.21
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Derby County Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: W
Norwich City Rank: W
Coventry City Rank: W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Stoke City Rank: D
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Birmingham City Rank: W
Middlesbrough Rank: D
Millwall Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Southampton
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Blackburn Rovers
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
45.18
23.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Southampton
Blackburn Rovers
Power Score
45.18
23.98
League Position
4
20
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Blackburn Rovers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Southampton Blackburn Rovers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Southampton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Blackburn Rovers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Southampton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Blackburn Rovers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.61
23.66
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.66
31.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Southampton +0.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Blackburn Rovers -0.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Southampton
Blackburn Rovers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Southampton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Blackburn Rovers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Southampton Blackburn Rovers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Southampton Blackburn Rovers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Southampton
Blackburn Rovers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Southampton
vs
Blackburn Rovers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Southampton Blackburn Rovers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Southampton 0.30
Blackburn Rovers 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Southampton Blackburn Rovers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Southampton 0.00
Blackburn Rovers 0.06
Southampton
Blackburn Rovers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SOU had peak pressure around 18'.
  • SOU started the game with stronger pressure.
SOU Pressure BBR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SOU reached the top pressure at 18' (90.66).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Southampton SOU Home
11 matches
Blackburn Rovers BBR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
3
Goals
13
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
13
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-15T00:01:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Peretz
Israel
41 D. Peretz
J. Bree
Substitution
England
14 J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
England
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
J. Stephens
England
5 J. Stephens
R. Manning
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
3 R. Manning
S. Charles
England
24 S. Charles
K. Matsuki
Substitution
Japan
27 K. Matsuki
T. Fellows
England
18 T. Fellows
C. Bragg
Substitution
England
48 C. Bragg
C. Archer
Substitution
England
19 C. Archer
C. Larin
Canada
9 C. Larin
B. Tóth
Hungary
22 B. Tóth
H. Pickering
Substitution
England
3 H. Pickering
S. McLoughlin
Republic of Ireland
15 S. McLoughlin
T. Atcheson
England
38 T. Atcheson
Y. Oliveira Ribeiro
Portugal
4 Y. Oliveira Ribeiro
K. Montgomery
Scotland
31 K. Montgomery
T. Gardner-Hickman
England
5 T. Gardner-Hickman
R. Alebiousu
Substitution
Nigeria
2 R. Alebiousu
M. Baradji
Substitution
France
24 M. Baradji
N. Redmond
Substitution
England
27 N. Redmond
M. Jörgensen
Substitution
Denmark
29 M. Jörgensen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 14, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 45 · Regular Season
Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium
Capacity
32384
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Joshua Smith

Statistics

Possession
SOU
57%
BBR
43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 3
53 Dangerous attacks 34
59 Possession 41
7 Corners 4
5 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

10 Successful Headers 10
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
11 Dribble Attempts 15
6 Successful Dribbles 8
17 Throwins 13
4 Goal Kicks 6
92 Ball Safe 79
10 Goal Attempts 5
0 Injuries 1
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

106 Attacks 93
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

23 Successful Long Passes 24
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
549 Successful Passes 350
89 Successful Passes Percentage 81
617 Passes 431
50 Long Passes 54
10 Key Passes 6

Defensive

15 Tackles 9
36 Duels Won 35
11 Interceptions 10
3 Saves 4

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 17
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

8 Fouls 5
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Joshua Smith

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
6.9
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Defender
7.19
34
Welington
Welington
Defender71'
6.65
5
Jack Stephens
Jack Stephens Defender
6.9
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Defender
7.27
14
James Bree
James Bree Defender
6.95
15
Nathan Wood
Nathan Wood
Defender46'
6.79
18
Tom Fellows
Tom Fellows Midfielder
6.76
19
Cameron Archer
Cameron Archer Midfielder
6.53
46
Jay Robinson
Jay Robinson
Attacker87'
6.69
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles Midfielder
6.96
27
Kuryu Matsuki
Kuryu Matsuki Midfielder
6.88
13
Leo Scienza
Leo Scienza
Midfielder71'
7.34
48
Cameron Bragg
Cameron Bragg Midfielder
6.65
4
Flynn Downes
Flynn Downes
Midfielder71'
6.81
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin Attacker
6.66
Referee : Joshua Smith

Starting XI ▼

22
Balázs Tóth
Balázs Tóth Goalkeeper
6.69
3
Harry Pickering
Harry Pickering Defender
6.49
20
Eiran Cashin
Eiran Cashin
Defender78'
6.67
15
Sean McLoughlin
Sean McLoughlin Defender
6.96
38
Tom Atcheson
Tom Atcheson Defender
6.75
2
Ryan Alebiosu
Ryan Alebiosu Midfielder
6.82
25
Ryoya Morishita
Ryoya Morishita
Midfielder46'
6.89
4
Yuri Ribeiro
Yuri Ribeiro Midfielder
6.67
5
Taylor Gardner-Hickman
Taylor Gardner-Hickman Midfielder
6.71
31
Kristi Montgomery
Kristi Montgomery Midfielder
6.55
24
Moussa Baradji
Moussa Baradji Attacker
6.79
19
Ryan Hedges
Ryan Hedges
Midfielder73'
6.89
27
Nathan Redmond
Nathan Redmond Attacker
6.4
23
Yuki Ohashi
Yuki Ohashi
Attacker46'
6.77
29
Mathias Jørgensen
Mathias Jørgensen Attacker
6.73
21
Oladapo Afolayan
Oladapo Afolayan
Attacker73'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jay Robinson → Cameron Archer
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Cameron Archer
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
86'
78'
Event
Eiran Cashin → Harry Pickering
9th Substitution
73'
Event
Oladapo Afolayan → Mathias Jørgensen
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Ryan Hedges → Moussa Baradji
8th Substitution
Event
Welington → Ryan Manning
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Leo Scienza → Kuryu Matsuki
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Flynn Downes → Cameron Bragg
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Nathan Wood → James Bree
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Ryoya Morishita → Ryan Alebiosu
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Yuki Ohashi → Nathan Redmond
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ryan Manning
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
43'
Event
Cyle Larin
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'
7'
Event
Taylor Gardner-Hickman
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
5'
Event
Sean McLoughlin
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Foul committed by Flynn Downes for Southampton.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Yuri Ribeiro of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Jay Robinson from Southampton won a free kick in an attacking position.
89
Attempt Attempt
Léo Scienza from Southampton had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box. The assist came from Welington.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Jay Robinson replaces Cameron Archer.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Southampton lead 3-0 against Blackburn Rovers. Cameron Archer scores for Southampton with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Léo Scienza.
82
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Tom Atcheson of Blackburn Rovers takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved by Southampton's goalkeeper Daniel Peretz, who is positioned in the center of the goal.
81
Attempt Attempt
Yuki Ohashi from Blackburn Rovers attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, but the shot is saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Ryoya Morishita from Blackburn Rovers hits the bar with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box.
81
Update Update
Oladapo Afolayan from Blackburn Rovers won a free kick on the left wing.
80
Update Update
Fouled by Tom Fellows of Southampton.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Eiran Cashin replaces Harry Pickering.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Balázs Tóth concedes.
78
Corner Corner
Léo Scienza from Southampton attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but Balázs Tóth from Blackburn Rovers saves it in the top left corner.
73
Corner Corner
Blackburn Rovers win a corner after Flynn Downes concedes.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Oladapo Afolayan replaces Mathias Jørgensen.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Ryan Hedges replaces Moussa Baradji.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Flynn Downes replaces Cameron Bragg.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Welington replaces Ryan Manning.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Léo Scienza replaces Kuryu Matsuki due to injury.
70
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box but sending it high. Cyle Larin provided the assist.
69
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Sean McLoughlin of Blackburn Rovers heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard box, but it is saved by Southampton's goalkeeper Daniel Peretz. The assist came from Harry Pickering's cross.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after a concession by Cameron Bragg.
68
Attempt Attempt
Yuki Ohashi's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Kristi Montgomery provided the assist.
64
Update Update
Foul committed by Yuki Ohashi for Blackburn Rovers.
64
Update Update
Cameron Bragg from Southampton won a free kick on the right wing.
64
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Archer's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
60
Update Update
Moussa Baradji of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in the attacking half.
60
Update Update
Cameron Bragg fouls a Southampton player.
59
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Ryan Manning of Southampton won a free kick in defense.
58
Update Update
Yuri Ribeiro from Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in an attacking position.
58
Update Update
Kristi Montgomery of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in defense.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Cameron Archer - Southampton.
58
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki fouled a Southampton player.
55
Attempt Attempt
Moussa Baradji's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Ryoya Morishita provided the assist.
53
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Archer's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
53
Corner Corner
Southampton win a corner after Yuri Ribeiro concedes.
53
Attempt Attempt
Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton has a shot from the center of the box, but it is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Taylor Gardner-Hickman's shot for Blackburn Rovers from outside the box is blocked. Harry Pickering provided the assist.
47
Update Update
Kristi Montgomery from Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in defense.
47
Update Update
Kristi Montgomery of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Southampton leading Blackburn Rovers 2-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Manning of Southampton.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Ryoya Morishita replaces Ryan Alebiosu.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Yuki Ohashi replaces Nathan Redmond.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Southampton leading Blackburn Rovers 2-0.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ryan Manning scores for Southampton with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box into the right corner. The match stands at 2-0 in favor of Southampton.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after a concession by Cameron Archer.
36
Attempt Attempt
Shea Charles from Southampton attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Balázs Tóth from Blackburn Rovers saves it in the top center of the goal.
32
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Archer from Southampton attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box, but the shot is saved.
29
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ryan Alebiosu of Blackburn Rovers.
28
Corner Corner
Southampton win a corner after Yuri Ribeiro concedes.
24
Corner Corner
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box. The shot is saved in the left corner by Balázs Tóth of Blackburn Rovers, with an assist from Tom Fellows.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Southampton leads 1-0 against Blackburn Rovers. Cyle Larin scores for Southampton with a right-footed shot from close range into the right corner, assisted by Cameron Archer.
23
Update Update
Offside called against Blackburn Rovers. Moussa Baradji is in an offside position.
22
Update Update
Cameron Bragg from Southampton commits a foul.
22
Update Update
Mathias Jørgensen of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in defense.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after a foul by Ryan Manning.
16
Corner Corner
Jack Stephens from Southampton had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just to the left. The assist came from Ryan Manning, who provided a cross after a corner.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Balázs Tóth concedes.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Balázs Tóth concedes.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Taylor Gardner-Hickman concedes.
14
Attempt Attempt
Shea Charles of Southampton has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked. Ryan Manning provided the assist.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a concession by Yuri Ribeiro.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Alebiosu of Blackburn Rovers.
9
Update Update
Ryan Manning of Southampton won a free kick in defense.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Taylor Gardner-Hickman concedes.
8
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Archer's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
8
Corner Corner
Cameron Bragg from Southampton misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right. The assist came from James Bree after a corner.
7
Update Update
Shea Charles from Southampton won a free kick on the left wing.
7
Update Update
Foul committed by Taylor Gardner-Hickman of Blackburn Rovers.
7
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Taylor Gardner-Hickman of Blackburn Rovers receives a yellow card for a foul.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sean McLoughlin of Blackburn Rovers receives a yellow card for a foul.
5
Update Update
Shea Charles from Southampton won a free kick on the left wing.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Sean McLoughlin of Blackburn Rovers.
3
Update Update
Cameron Archer fouled a Southampton player.
3
Update Update
Taylor Gardner-Hickman of Blackburn Rovers won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Southampton exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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