Strasbourg vs FSV Mainz 05 Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe

Stade de la Meinau Today - 7:00 PM

Europa Conference League

Strasbourg STR

FSV Mainz 05 M05

KICKOFF : Today - 7:00 PM

Quarter Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 2

CONTEXT

Strasbourg welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Stade de la Meinau for the second leg of this Europa Conference League quarter-final. The hosts trail 0-2 on aggregate after losing the first meeting in Germany and must find a clinical edge to overturn the deficit against the stronger side. Mainz hold a clear power advantage and showed control in the opening leg, while Strasbourg boast a strong league position and solid recent results at home. The French side have won four of their last six matches overall but need an immediate response in front of an expectant crowd. Mainz arrive with a resilient record and will aim to absorb pressure before striking on the break. This knockout clash carries high stakes as the visitors look to protect their lead and advance, while Strasbourg chase a comeback in what promises to be an intense European night.

TL;DR

Structural: Quarter-final second leg at Stade de la Meinau. Mainz lead 2-0 on aggregate from first leg victory.
Form: Strasbourg hold strong W4 D1 L1 record but lost last outing to Mainz. Visitors have W3 D2 L1 from six matches.
Squad: Both teams fielding near full-strength squads with no major absences reported.
Efficiency: No efficiency metrics available for this fixture.
Transition: Mainz hold edge in transition play, posing threat on counters against Strasbourg's attacking approach.
Set pieces: Low confidence set piece data with proxies used. No significant advantage for either side.
xVariable: Advanced xG statistics unavailable in this stage of the competition.
Market: Strasbourg 54.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.3% (Δ+0%) | FSV Mainz 05 20.9% (Δ+0%).

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Jan 25 vs Team A

Feb 1 vs Team B

Feb 8 vs Team C

G. O'Neil

U. Fischer

2.13

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

2.13

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 0 - 1

No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Strasbourg

54.83%

Draw

24.28%

FSV Mainz 05

20.89%

Team Power Ranking

29.35

41.03

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Strasbourg

FSV Mainz 05

Power Score

29.35

41.03

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Strasbourg — Opponent-weighted form score

FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Strasbourg FSV Mainz 05

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Strasbourg STR Home

1 matches

FSV Mainz 05 M05 Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-2

Goal Difference

Expected Goals

xGA

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:01:35+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-5-2

39 M. Penders

22 G. Doué

6 I. Doukoure

2 A. Omobamidele

3 B. Chilwell

8 M. Oyedele

29 S. El Mourabet

80 G. Yassine

32 V. Barco

20 M. Godo

19 J. Enciso

33 D. Batz

31 D. Kohr

4 S. Posch

21 D. Vieira da Costa

2 P. Mwene

8 P. Nebel

24 S. Kawasaki

6 K. Sano

30 S. Widmer

44 N. Weiper

20 P. Tietz

General Information

Date & Time

Apr 16, 2026, 07:00 PM

Competition

2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe · Quarter Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 2

Stadium

Stade de la Meinau

Capacity

29200

Pitch Surface

Grass

Weather

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees

Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Bruno Miguel Alves Jesus

Luciano António Gomes Maia

João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Expected Lineup

Referee : Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Manager ▼

G. O'Neil Coach

Starting XI ▼

Mike Penders Goalkeeper

Guela Doué Defender

6.74

Ismaël Doukouré Defender

6.87

Andrew Omobamidele Defender

6.95

Ben Chilwell Defender

6.91

Maxi Oyedele Midfielder

6.55

Samir El Mourabet Midfielder

6.94

Valentín Barco Midfielder

7.11

Julio Enciso Midfielder

7.09

Gessime Yassine Attacker

7.18

Martial Godo Attacker

7.12

Referee : Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Manager ▼

U. Fischer Coach

Starting XI ▼

Daniel Batz Goalkeeper

7.04

Stefan Posch Defender

7.46

Dominik Kohr Defender

6.98

Phillipp Mwene Defender

6.88

Silvan Widmer Defender

6.82

Danny da Costa Defender

6.87

Paul Nebel Midfielder

7.04

Kaishu Sano Midfielder

6.98

Sota Kawasaki Midfielder

6.97

Phillip Tietz Attacker

6.93

Nelson Weiper Attacker

6.87

CONCLUSION

Strasbourg face a tough task to erase the two-goal deficit but will draw on home support and their strong league form to press from the start. Mainz enter as the stronger team on key metrics and can afford to play with control, focusing on defensive structure and quick breaks. The first-leg result gives the visitors confidence and tactical flexibility. Success for the hosts depends on high tempo, clinical chances and avoiding further concessions. Knockout ties often produce drama and the Meinau atmosphere may yet inspire a response. Mainz remain well placed to progress but cannot afford complacency against a side capable of rapid momentum shifts.

STANDINGS

CONTEXT