Aston Villa vs Bologna Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Villa Park Today - 7:00 PM
Europa League
Aston Villa AVL
Versus
Bologna BOL
KICKOFF : Today - 7:00 PM
Quarter Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 1

CONTEXT

Aston Villa prepare to welcome Bologna to Villa Park in the second leg of their Europa League quarter-final. The English club secured a 3-1 triumph during the opening fixture played in Italy one week ago. This result grants them a two-goal cushion heading into the decisive encounter on home soil. Currently enjoying an outstanding sequence of six straight victories, the hosts display formidable momentum. Their visitors from Serie A have also performed creditably with four wins in six matches but must now produce something special to overturn the deficit. Positioned strongly in domestic competition, Aston Villa aim to leverage passionate support from the stands to advance further in the tournament. Bologna will attempt to disrupt rhythm and find attacking opportunities early on. The tie remains alive though the path forward looks considerably clearer for the home team. Quality players on both sides ensure an intriguing evening of football as spring progresses in this international cup campaign.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Villa Park hosts the concluding leg of this quarter-final where the home side defends a 3-1 aggregate lead established in the prior away fixture.
  • Form: Hosts remain unbeaten with six wins from six matches recently in contrast to the away team's four victories one draw and single defeat over a similar span.
  • Squad: Both lineups contain talented individuals capable of influencing outcomes although the home contingent benefits from familiarity with the surroundings and vocal backing.
  • Efficiency: Power scores indicate superior overall effectiveness for Aston Villa though specific efficiency metrics stay limited due to unavailable advanced data.
  • Transition: Ability to shift play rapidly from back to front may determine success particularly as spaces open up during this high stakes European fixture.
  • Set pieces: Absence of detailed xG information leaves set piece effectiveness uncertain yet both clubs could exploit dead ball situations in the match ahead.
  • xVariable: Aggregate scoreline and home advantage emerge as primary factors that could shape the direction and final outcome of this contest.
  • Market: Aston Villa 60.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 22.9% (Δ+0%) | Bologna 16.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
Bologna V. Italiano
V. Italiano
2.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.18
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: W
LOSC Lille Rank: W
LOSC Lille Rank: W
Salzburg Rank: W
Fenerbahçe Rank: W
Basel Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: L
Roma Rank: W
Roma Rank: D
Brann Rank: W
Brann Rank: W
Maccabi Tel Aviv Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
60.67%
Draw
22.94%
Away Bologna
16.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.35
30.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
Bologna
Power Score
36.35
30.03
League Position
2
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Bologna — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa Bologna

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
3 matches
Bologna BOL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
3
Goals
6
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
6
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:01:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Bizot
Netherlands
40 M. Bizot
M. Cash
Poland
2 M. Cash
E. Konsa Ngoyo
England
4 E. Konsa Ngoyo
P. Francisco Torres
Spain
14 P. Francisco Torres
L. Digne
France
12 L. Digne
A. Mvom Onana
Belgium
24 A. Mvom Onana
Y. Tielemans
Belgium
8 Y. Tielemans
J. McGinn
Scotland
7 J. McGinn
M. Rogers
England
27 M. Rogers
E. Buendía
Argentina
10 E. Buendía
O. Watkins
England
11 O. Watkins
F. Ravaglia
Italy
13 F. Ravaglia
J. Miranda González
Spain
33 J. Miranda González
T. Heggem
Norway
14 T. Heggem
M. Vitík
Czech Republic
41 M. Vitík
J. Neto Lopes
Portugal
17 J. Neto Lopes
R. Freuler
Switzerland
8 R. Freuler
N. Moro
Croatia
6 N. Moro
J. Rowe
England
11 J. Rowe
L. Ferguson
Scotland
19 L. Ferguson
F. Bernardeschi
Italy
10 F. Bernardeschi
S. Castro
Argentina
9 S. Castro

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 16, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Quarter Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 1
Stadium
Villa Park
Capacity
42640
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Raúl Cabañero Martínez
Iñigo Prieto López de Ceraín
José Luis Munuera Montero
José María Sánchez Martínez

Lineup

Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

40
Marco Bizot
Marco Bizot Goalkeeper
8.13
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Defender
6.64
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Defender
7.06
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
6.66
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Defender
6.86
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Midfielder
7.33
24
Amadou Onana
Amadou Onana Midfielder
7.13
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
6.95
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Attacker
6.89
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Attacker
6.88
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
6.71
Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

13
Federico Ravaglia
Federico Ravaglia Goalkeeper
6.42
14
Torbjørn Heggem
Torbjørn Heggem Defender
6.7
17
João Mário
João Mário Defender
6.73
33
Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda Defender
7.26
41
Martin Vitík
Martin Vitík Defender
6.69
6
Nikola Moro
Nikola Moro Midfielder
7.23
8
Remo Freuler
Remo Freuler Midfielder
6.86
19
Lewis Ferguson
Lewis Ferguson Midfielder
6.87
9
Santiago Castro
Santiago Castro Attacker
6.83
10
Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi Attacker
7.2
11
Jonathan Rowe
Jonathan Rowe Attacker
7.16

CONCLUSION

Everything points toward a successful evening for Aston Villa as they look to confirm progression from this quarter-final tie. Their superior power rating combined with excellent recent results creates a platform for control throughout the ninety minutes. Supporters inside the stadium will urge the players to maintain focus and avoid any complacency despite the aggregate lead. Bologna require multiple goals without reply to turn the tie around, a demanding requirement against such resilient opposition. Players from the away side might grow frustrated as the match unfolds if early chances fail to materialize. Meanwhile the home squad possesses sufficient quality in attack to punish any defensive lapses. European competitions often deliver drama yet the foundations laid in the first leg should guide Villa safely through.

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