Sarpsborg 08 vs Bodø / Glimt Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Sarpsborg Stadion Wed, 15 Apr - 5:00 PM
Eliteserien
Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08
1 – 1
Bodø / Glimt BOD
Full Time Wed, 15 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 1 Regular Season
Sander Christiansen - 33'
Goal
|
Goal
Sondre Fet - 64' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Sarpsborg 08 and Bodø / Glimt is finished, with the full-time score 1-1. Sarpsborg took a first-half lead but were unable to hold on for the win as the visitors equalised after the break. This draw marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, in which Bodø / Glimt had been the clear stronger side yet failed to secure the three points. Bodø / Glimt dominated possession with 72 percent compared to Sarpsborg’s 28 percent, yet the final result did not align with the pre-match projection that had heavily favoured the away team. No xG data is available to assess underlying chance quality, and the efficiency shift stayed in line with the balance of play. Neither side received a red card, and the absence of major disciplinary incidents left the outcome to be decided by attacking execution and defensive resilience. For Sarpsborg the point represented a valuable result against superior opposition.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Bodø / Glimt showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Nilsen
O. Nilsen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
A. Jaeger
A. Jaeger
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
O. Ekeli Valen
O. Ekeli Valen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
K. Mamhassan
K. Mamhassan
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Sarpsborg 08 E. Sel
E. Sel
VS
Bodø / Glimt K. Knutsen
K. Knutsen
1.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.2
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rosenborg Rank: L
Start Rank: D
Sandefjord Rank: W
Molde Rank: W
Bryne Rank: W
Fredrikstad Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Viking Rank: L
Kristiansund Rank: W
HamKam Rank: D
Fredrikstad Rank: W
KFUM Rank: W
Bryne Rank: W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 5 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sarpsborg 08
16.27%
Draw
19.36%
Away Bodø / Glimt
64.37%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sarpsborg 08
+13.06%
Draw
-70.26%
Bodø / Glimt
+57.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.1
37.18
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sarpsborg 08
Bodø / Glimt
Power Score
25.1
37.18
League Position
8
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sarpsborg 08 — Opponent-weighted form score
Bodø / Glimt — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sarpsborg 08 Bodø / Glimt

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sarpsborg 08

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bodø / Glimt

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bodø / Glimt
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
60.18
34.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.93
60.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sarpsborg 08 +2.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Bodø / Glimt -2.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sarpsborg 08
Bodø / Glimt
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bodø / Glimt
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sarpsborg 08 Bodø / Glimt
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sarpsborg 08 Bodø / Glimt
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sarpsborg 08
Bodø / Glimt
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sarpsborg 08
vs
Bodø / Glimt
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sarpsborg 08 Bodø / Glimt
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sarpsborg 08 0.41
Bodø / Glimt 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sarpsborg 08 Bodø / Glimt
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sarpsborg 08 0.01
Bodø / Glimt 0.03
Sarpsborg 08
Bodø / Glimt
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOD had peak pressure around 2'.
  • Sarpsborg 08 started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Sarpsborg 08 Pressure BOD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BOD reached the top pressure at 2' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 Home
22 matches
Bodø / Glimt BOD Away
Match Record
4
Wins
13
5
Draws
5
13
Losses
4
Goals
26
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
26
-25
Goal Difference
+25
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:00:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
M. Ndiaye
Senegal
1 M. Ndiaye
E. Wichne
Substitution
Norway
32 E. Wichne
B. Utvik
Norway
4 B. Utvik
S. Rosted
Norway
24 S. Rosted
A. Hiim
Norway
21 A. Hiim
S. Sørli
Substitution
Norway
10 S. Sørli
A. Sher
Sweden
6 A. Sher
S. Christiansen
Norway
8 S. Christiansen
N. Williams
Substitution
Sweden
17 N. Williams
A. Hansen
Substitution
Denmark
33 A. Hansen
D. Seland Karlsbakk
Norway
11 D. Seland Karlsbakk
N. Haikin
Russia
12 N. Haikin
F. Bjørkan
Norway
15 F. Bjørkan
J. Maurstad Gundersen
Substitution
Norway
6 J. Maurstad Gundersen
O. Bjørtuft
Norway
4 O. Bjørtuft
F. Sjøvold
Substitution
Norway
20 F. Sjøvold
J. Hauge
Norway
10 J. Hauge
P. Berg
Norway
7 P. Berg
S. Auklend
Substitution
Norway
8 S. Auklend
S. Brunstad Fet
Norway
19 S. Brunstad Fet
O. Blomberg
Substitution
Norway
11 O. Blomberg
K. Høgh
Substitution
Denmark
9 K. Høgh

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 15, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Sarpsborg Stadion
Capacity
8022
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Ola Hobber Nilsen
Aleksander Jaeger
Ole-Alexander Ekeli Valen
Karwan Mamhassan

Statistics

Possession
Sarpsborg 08
34%
BOD
66%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 9
37 Dangerous attacks 163
28 Possession 72
4 Corners 6
7 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

13 Throwins 12
14 Dribble Attempts 11
6 Successful Dribbles 4
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
9 Goal Kicks 6
1 Assists 0
13 Goal Attempts 8
85 Ball Safe 73
4 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

52 Attacks 163
9 Counter Attacks 0
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 90
222 Successful Passes 650
32 Successful Long Passes 43
280 Passes 725
59 Long Passes 64
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 67
13 Key Passes 9

Defensive

3 Saves 7
11 Interceptions 9
39 Duels Won 30
13 Tackles 11

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 9
12 Total Crosses 27

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
7 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Mamour Ndiaye
Mamour Ndiaye Goalkeeper
7.01
4
Bjørn Inge Utvik
Bjørn Inge Utvik Defender
7.01
21
Anders Hiim
Anders Hiim Defender
6.83
24
Sigurd Rosted
Sigurd Rosted Defender
7.08
32
Eirik Wichne
Eirik Wichne Defender
6.36
12
Claus Niyukuri
Claus Niyukuri
Defender72'
6.92
6
Aimar Sher
Aimar Sher Midfielder
7.6
8
Sander Christiansen
Sander Christiansen Midfielder
6.62
10
Sondre Sörli
Sondre Sörli Midfielder
6.63
2
Menno Koch
Menno Koch
Defender83'
6.6
17
Noa Williams
Noa Williams Midfielder
6.6
22
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Midfielder61'
6.9
11
Daniel Karlsbakk
Daniel Karlsbakk Attacker
6.53
33
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Attacker
6.92
18
Bop Guèye
Bop Guèye
Midfielder83'
6.64
Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

12
Nikita Haikin
Nikita Haikin Goalkeeper
6.53
4
Odin Luras Bjortuft
Odin Luras Bjortuft Defender
6.4
6
Jostein Gundersen
Jostein Gundersen Defender
6.09
5
Haitam Aleesami
Haitam Aleesami
Defender85'
7.19
15
Fredrik Bjørkan
Fredrik Bjørkan Defender
7.04
20
Fredrik Sjøvold
Fredrik Sjøvold Defender
6.93
25
Isak Dybvik Määttä
Isak Dybvik Määttä
Defender46'
6.45
7
Patrick Berg
Patrick Berg Midfielder
6.99
8
Sondre Auklend
Sondre Auklend Midfielder
7.12
26
Håkon Evjen
Håkon Evjen
Midfielder79'
6.6
10
Jens Petter Hauge
Jens Petter Hauge Midfielder
6.93
19
Sondre Fet
Sondre Fet Midfielder
6.43
9
Kasper Høgh
Kasper Høgh Attacker
6.97
21
Andreas Helmersen
Andreas Helmersen
Attacker79'
6.5
11
Ole Didrik Blomberg
Ole Didrik Blomberg Attacker
7.34
24
Daniel Bassi
Daniel Bassi
Attacker85'
6.31

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
4th Yellowcard
90+8'
Event
Jens Petter Hauge
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Haitam Aleesami → Jostein Gundersen
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Daniel Bassi → Ole Didrik Blomberg
9th Substitution
Event
Bop Guèye → Andreas Hansen
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Menno Koch → Sondre Sörli
7th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Kjetil Knutsen
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Andreas Helmersen → Kasper Høgh
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Håkon Evjen → Sondre Auklend
4th Substitution
Event
Claus Niyukuri → Eirik Wichne
3rd Substitution
72'
64'
Event
Sondre Fet
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Mamour Ndiaye
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen → Noa Williams
2nd Substitution
61'
60'
Event
Kasper Høgh
Penalty disallowed
Event
Sigurd Rosted
1st Var
58'
46'
Event
Isak Dybvik Määttä → Fredrik Sjøvold
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Sander Christiansen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
33'
18'
Event
Sondre Fet
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Bodø / Glimt exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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