Tromsø vs Lillestrøm Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Alfheim Stadion Wed, 15 Apr - 5:00 PM
Eliteserien
Tromsø Tromsø
0 – 0
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm
Full Time Wed, 15 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 15 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between Tromsø and Lillestrøm is finished, ending in a 0-0 draw at full time. This outcome represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, which had identified Tromsø as the stronger side with a 52 percent forecast for a home win. The draw instead delivered a result that failed to align with that projection, as the home team could not translate their status into a victory despite being the more favored outfit beforehand. Tromsø held 60 percent possession to Lillestrøm’s 40 percent but created little clear danger, with no expected goals data available to measure chance quality. No red cards were issued and no major disruptive events altered the flow. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations across both halves, yet the stalemate left Tromsø’s territorial control unrewarded. Overall the result did not match the pre-match projection that pointed toward a home success. Tromsø, though stronger on paper, were held at bay in a contest that produced no goals and highlighted the visitors’ resilience in securing a point.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Tromsø showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Hagenes
K. Hagenes
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
K. Kristiansen
K. Kristiansen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
E. Hareland
E. Hareland
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
R. Langseth
R. Langseth
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
VS
Lillestrøm H. Ødegaard
H. Ødegaard
2.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kristiansund Rank: W
Rosenborg Rank: W
Brann Rank: W
Fredrikstad Rank: W
Kristiansund Rank: W
Rosenborg Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Start Rank: W
Molde Rank: W
Aalesund Rank: W
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 9 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tromsø
51.96%
Draw
24.94%
Away Lillestrøm
23.09%

Movement

Changes since opening
Tromsø
+46.45%
Draw
-65.95%
Lillestrøm
+19.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
38.9
32.89
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tromsø
Lillestrøm
Power Score
38.9
32.89
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Lillestrøm — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tromsø Lillestrøm

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tromsø

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lillestrøm

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.67
26.63
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.63
22.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tromsø -0.40 Efficiency Index
vs
Lillestrøm +0.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Lillestrøm
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tromsø Lillestrøm
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tromsø Lillestrøm
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Lillestrøm
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tromsø
vs
Lillestrøm
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tromsø Lillestrøm
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tromsø 0.14
Lillestrøm 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tromsø Lillestrøm
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tromsø 0.00
Lillestrøm 0.00
Tromsø
Lillestrøm
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Tromsø had peak pressure around 93'.
  • Tromsø started the game with stronger pressure.
Tromsø Pressure Lillestrøm Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Tromsø reached the top pressure at 93' (77.03).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tromsø Tromsø Home
36 matches
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm Away
Match Record
15
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
15
Goals
53
Goals Scored
49
49
Goals Conceded
53
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:00:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
J. Haugaard
Denmark
1 J. Haugaard
L. Jean Cornic
Substitution
Norway
2 L. Jean Cornic
I. Vådebu
Norway
30 I. Vådebu
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
Norway
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
A. Kinteh
25 A. Kinteh
A. Warneryd
Substitution
Sweden
29 A. Warneryd
D. Edvardsson
Sweden
5 D. Edvardsson
R. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
11 R. Yttergård Jenssen
J. Hjertø-Dahl
Norway
6 J. Hjertø-Dahl
L. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
7 L. Larsen
D. Braut
Norway
9 D. Braut
P. Dahlberg
Sweden
12 P. Dahlberg
Y. Paintsil
Norway
26 Y. Paintsil
U. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
23 U. Yttergård Jenssen
L. Gabrielsen
Norway
28 L. Gabrielsen
L. Ranger
Norway
2 L. Ranger
Y. Ibrahimaj
Kosovo
29 Y. Ibrahimaj
V. António Félix
Substitution
Angola
20 V. António Félix
E. Bugale Kitolano
Substitution
Norway
17 E. Bugale Kitolano
M. Karlsbakk
Norway
8 M. Karlsbakk
S. Drammeh
Substitution
Gambia
15 S. Drammeh
T. Lehne Olsen
Substitution
Norway
10 T. Lehne Olsen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 15, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 15 · Regular Season
Stadium
Alfheim Stadion
Capacity
6687
Attendance
5256
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Kristoffer Hagenes
Kristian Kristiansen
Erland Hareland
Runar Langseth

Statistics

Possession
Tromsø
60%
Lillestrøm
40%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 6
72 Dangerous attacks 33
60 Possession 40
6 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 19
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 6
23 Dribble Attempts 18
9 Successful Dribbles 6
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
14 Throwins 19
1 Injuries 2
10 Goal Attempts 7
62 Ball Safe 72
3 Substitutions 4

Attacking

160 Attacks 73
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

8 Key Passes 6
569 Successful Passes 329
639 Passes 417
53 Long Passes 53
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
32 Successful Long Passes 21
89 Successful Passes Percentage 79

Defensive

12 Interceptions 9
6 Saves 6
17 Tackles 15
44 Duels Won 50

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 14
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

19 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
6.94
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Defender
7.24
4
Vetle Skjærvik
Vetle Skjærvik
Defender82'
7.28
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Defender
7.42
25
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh Defender
6.45
29
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd Defender
7.14
37
Sander Innvær
Sander Innvær
Midfielder82'
6.47
30
Isak Vådebu
Isak Vådebu Defender
7.35
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Midfielder
7.32
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl Midfielder
7.91
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen Midfielder
7.44
7
Lars Olden Larsen
Lars Olden Larsen Attacker
7.09
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen
Midfielder46'
7.1
9
Daniel Braut
Daniel Braut Attacker
6.92
Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes

Starting XI ▼

12
Pontus Dahlberg
Pontus Dahlberg Goalkeeper
7.39
2
Lars Ranger
Lars Ranger Defender
7.25
23
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen Defender
6.64
26
Yaw Paintsil
Yaw Paintsil Defender
6.59
28
Ruben Gabrielsen
Ruben Gabrielsen Defender
6.61
8
Markus Karlsbakk
Markus Karlsbakk Midfielder
7.27
15
Salieu Drammeh
Salieu Drammeh Midfielder
6.94
19
Camil Jebara
Camil Jebara
Attacker68'
6.74
17
Eric Kitolano
Eric Kitolano Midfielder
6.93
14
Gustav Nyheim
Gustav Nyheim
Attacker89'
6.7
20
Felix Vá
Felix Vá Midfielder
7.42
7
Linus Alperud
Linus Alperud
Midfielder88'
29
Y. Ibrahimaj
Y. Ibrahimaj Midfielder
7.06
10
Thomas Lehne Olsen
Thomas Lehne Olsen Attacker
7.44
9
Kparobo Arierhi
Kparobo Arierhi
Attacker68'
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Gustav Nyheim → Eric Kitolano
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Linus Alperud → Felix Vá
6th Substitution
Event
Sander Innvær → Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
4th Substitution
82'
Event
Vetle Skjærvik → Leo Cornic
5th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Markus Karlsbakk
Goal disallowed
Event
Jørgen Vik
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Leo Cornic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
74'
Event
Yaw Paintsil
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Kparobo Arierhi → Thomas Lehne Olsen
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Camil Jebara → Salieu Drammeh
3rd Substitution
Event
Heine Åsen Larsen → Lars Olden Larsen
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
26'
Event
Y. Ibrahimaj
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Tromsø exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews