Arsenal vs Sporting CP Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Emirates Stadium Wed, 15 Apr - 7:00 PM
Champions League
Arsenal ARS
0 – 0
Sporting CP SCP
Full Time Wed, 15 Apr 7:00 PM
Quarter Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 0

CONTEXT

The match between Arsenal and Sporting CP is finished with a full-time score of 0-0. As the second leg of this knockout tie, it followed the first leg played 8 days ago between Sporting CP and Arsenal that finished with a first leg scoreline of 0-1. Arsenal entered as the stronger team but could not break down a resolute Sporting CP defense, resulting in a goalless stalemate that carried the tie forward on aggregate. The draw represented a moderate deviation from pre-match expectations centered on Arsenal. Both sides controlled an even share of possession at 50 percent apiece, with no expected goals data available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with projections and no red cards or major disruptive events altered the flow. Overall the outcome aligned with the pre-match projection despite the deviation, as the evenly matched contest produced few clear opportunities in either half.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arsenal showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Letexier
F. Letexier
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
S. Frappart
S. Frappart
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
C. Mugnier
C. Mugnier
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
M. Rahmouni
M. Rahmouni
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
VS
Sporting CP R. Gomes Borges
R. Gomes Borges
2.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Kairat Rank: W
Inter Rank: W
Club Brugge Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: W
Bodø / Glimt Rank: L
Athletic Club Rank: W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: W
FC Bayern München Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arsenal
6.27%
Draw
90.48%
Away Sporting CP
3.24%

Movement

Changes since opening
Arsenal
-2.27%
Draw
+2.64%
Sporting CP
-0.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
35.98
30.99
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arsenal
Sporting CP
Power Score
35.98
30.99
League Position
1
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting CP — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arsenal Sporting CP

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting CP

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting CP
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.10
19.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.20
37.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Arsenal +1.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting CP -1.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
Sporting CP
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting CP
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arsenal Sporting CP
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arsenal Sporting CP
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
Sporting CP
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arsenal
vs
Sporting CP
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arsenal Sporting CP
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arsenal 0.21
Sporting CP 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arsenal Sporting CP
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arsenal 0.00
Sporting CP 0.00
Arsenal
Sporting CP
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ARS had peak pressure around 57'.
  • ARS started the game with stronger pressure.
ARS Pressure SCP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ARS reached the top pressure at 57' (98.71).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arsenal ARS Home
6 matches
Sporting CP SCP Away
Match Record
3
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
3
Goals
10
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
10
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:01:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Raya Martin
Spain
1 D. Raya Martin
C. Mosquera
Spain
3 C. Mosquera
W. Saliba
France
2 W. Saliba
G. dos Santos Magalhães
Brazil
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
P. Hincapié Reyna
Ecuador
5 P. Hincapié Reyna
M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
Spain
36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
D. Rice
Republic of Ireland
41 D. Rice
C. Madueke
Substitution
England
20 C. Madueke
E. Eze
Substitution
England
10 E. Eze
G. Martinelli Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 G. Martinelli Silva
V. Gyökeres
Substitution
Sweden
14 V. Gyökeres
R. Dantas da Silva
Portugal
1 R. Dantas da Silva
M. Araújo Vilches
Uruguay
20 M. Araújo Vilches
G. Inácio
Portugal
25 G. Inácio
O. Diomande
Ivory Coast
26 O. Diomande
E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
Substitution
Portugal
72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
H. Morita
Substitution
Japan
5 H. Morita
M. Hjulmand
Denmark
42 M. Hjulmand
P. Pereira Gonçalves
Substitution
Portugal
8 P. Pereira Gonçalves
F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
Substitution
Portugal
17 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
G. Cipriano Catamo
Substitution
Mozambique
10 G. Cipriano Catamo
L. Suárez Charris
Colombia
97 L. Suárez Charris

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 15, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe · Quarter Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 0
Stadium
Emirates Stadium
Capacity
60704
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
François Letexier
Stéphanie Frappart
Cyril Mugnier
Mehdi Rahmouni

Statistics

Possession
ARS
52%
SCP
48%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 1
71 Dangerous attacks 32
50 Possession 50
8 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

22 Throwins 13
6 Goal Kicks 12
18 Dribble Attempts 13
7 Successful Dribbles 3
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 23
6 Successful Headers 7
1 Hit Woodwork 1
67 Ball Safe 73
1 Injuries 1
9 Goal Attempts 8
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

116 Attacks 83
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

384 Successful Passes 388
34 Long Passes 29
87 Successful Passes Percentage 87
442 Passes 444
17 Successful Long Passes 11
13 Key Passes 6
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

Defensive

47 Duels Won 41
23 Tackles 26
7 Interceptions 13
1 Saves 1

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 9
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : François Letexier

Starting XI ▼

1
David Raya
David Raya Goalkeeper
7.19
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Defender
6.81
3
Cristhian Mosquera
Cristhian Mosquera Defender
6.7
5
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié Defender
6.94
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Defender
7.18
10
Eberechi Eze
Eberechi Eze Midfielder
7.04
9
Gabriel Jesus
Gabriel Jesus
Attacker79'
7.15
11
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli Midfielder
7.32
19
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard
Attacker79'
7.22
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke Midfielder
7.4
56
Max Dowman
Max Dowman
Midfielder63'
6.48
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi Midfielder
7.13
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Midfielder
7.36
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres Attacker
6.95
29
Kai Havertz
Kai Havertz
Attacker56'
7.29
Referee : François Letexier

Starting XI ▼

1
Rui Silva
Rui Silva Goalkeeper
6.93
20
Maxi Araújo
Maxi Araújo Defender
7
25
Gonçalo Inácio
Gonçalo Inácio Defender
6.86
26
Ousmane Diomande
Ousmane Diomande Defender
6.8
72
Eduardo Quaresma
Eduardo Quaresma Defender
6.56
13
Georgios Vagiannidis
Georgios Vagiannidis
Defender85'
5.79
5
Hidemasa Morita
Hidemasa Morita Midfielder
6.73
52
João Simões
João Simões
Midfielder77'
6.53
8
Pedro Gonçalves
Pedro Gonçalves Midfielder
6.91
23
Daniel Bragança
Daniel Bragança
Midfielder71'
6.65
10
Geny Catamo
Geny Catamo Midfielder
6.93
7
Geovany Quenda
Geovany Quenda
Midfielder71'
7.48
17
Francisco Trincão
Francisco Trincão Midfielder
7.39
90
Rafael Nel
Rafael Nel
Attacker85'
6.87
42
Morten Hjulmand
Morten Hjulmand Midfielder
7.12
97
Luis Suárez
Luis Suárez Attacker
7.23

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Rui Borges
4th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Rafael Nel → Francisco Trincão
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Georgios Vagiannidis → Eduardo Quaresma
9th Substitution
Event
Leandro Trossard → Gabriel Martinelli
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Gabriel Jesus → Eberechi Eze
6th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
2nd Yellowcard
79'
Event
Maxi Araújo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
77'
Event
João Simões → Hidemasa Morita
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Daniel Bragança → Pedro Gonçalves
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Geovany Quenda → Geny Catamo
4th Substitution
Event
Mikel Arteta
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Max Dowman → Noni Madueke
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Kai Havertz → Viktor Gyökeres
1st Substitution
56'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
João Simões from Sporting Lisbon had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Arsenal and Sporting Lisbon tied at 0-0.
90
Update Update
Handball by Gabriel Jesus for Arsenal.
90
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Morten Hjulmand concedes.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Lisbon: Georgios Vagiannidis replaces Eduardo Quaresma.
85
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Jesus of Arsenal had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from a difficult position on the left, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Martín Zubimendi.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Lisbon: Rafael Nel replaces Trincão.
84
Corner Corner
Leandro Trossard of Arsenal hits the left post with a header from a difficult position on the left. The assist comes from Max Dowman, who delivered a cross after a corner.
83
Corner Corner
Arsenal wins a corner after João Simões concedes.
82
Update Update
William Saliba of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
82
Update Update
Foul committed by Eduardo Quaresma of Sporting Lisbon.
80
Attempt Attempt
William Saliba's shot for Arsenal from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Declan Rice, who provided the cross.
79
Update Update
Maxi Araújo commits a foul for Sporting Lisbon.
79
Update Update
Max Dowman of Arsenal won a free kick on the right wing.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus replaces Eberechi Eze.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Leandro Trossard replaces Gabriel Martinelli.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maxi Araújo of Sporting Lisbon receives a yellow card for a foul.
77
Update Update
Rui Silva of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in defense.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Lisbon: João Simões replaces Hidemasa Morita.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by William Saliba of Arsenal.
76
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Eduardo Quaresma concedes.
75
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Eduardo Quaresma concedes.
74
Update Update
Geovany Quenda from Sporting Lisbon has gone down, but the referee considers it simulation.
73
Update Update
Kai Havertz of Arsenal commits a handball.
72
Attempt Attempt
Eberechi Eze from Arsenal misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Lisbon: Daniel Bragança replaces Pote.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Lisbon: Geovany Quenda replaces Geny Catamo.
70
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in defense.
70
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Magalhães of Arsenal.
67
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Maxi Araújo of Sporting Lisbon has a left-footed shot from outside the box that is saved.
65
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon wins a corner after Piero Hincapié concedes.
65
Attempt Attempt
Geny Catamo's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Max Dowman replaces Noni Madueke due to injury.
63
Corner Corner
Hidemasa Morita from Sporting Lisbon misses a chance, shooting high from a difficult position on the left. The assist came from Pote, who delivered a cross after a corner.
61
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Noni Madueke from Arsenal.
60
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon wins a corner, conceded by Martín Zubimendi.
57
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Noni Madueke from Arsenal shot with his left foot from the left side of the box.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Eberechi Eze of Arsenal shot with his right foot from the center of the box.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Kai Havertz replaces Viktor Gyökeres.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Eduardo Quaresma of Sporting Lisbon.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Eduardo Quaresma of Sporting Lisbon.
51
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Trincão concedes.
50
Attempt Attempt
Eberechi Eze from Arsenal had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball went to the left. Noni Madueke provided the assist.
49
Update Update
Gabriel Magalhães of Arsenal won a free kick on the right wing.
49
Update Update
Maxi Araújo fouled a player from Sporting Lisbon.
47
Attempt Attempt
Maxi Araújo from Sporting Lisbon misses a chance with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Arsenal and Sporting Lisbon tied at 0-0.
45
Update Update
Cristhian Mosquera of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Eberechi Eze from Arsenal had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box but sending it high. Gabriel Martinelli provided the assist.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Trincão for Sporting Lisbon.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Arsenal and Sporting Lisbon.
43
Attempt Attempt
Geny Catamo of Sporting Lisbon hits the woodwork with a left-footed shot from a difficult position on the right.
42
Update Update
Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in the attacking area.
42
Update Update
Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in an attacking position.
41
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Maxi Araújo concedes.
37
Update Update
Cristhian Mosquera of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
37
Update Update
Maxi Araújo fouled a player from Sporting Lisbon.
36
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Martinelli's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Viktor Gyökeres provided the assist.
33
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick on the left wing.
33
Update Update
Luis Suárez from Sporting Lisbon won a free kick on the left wing.
31
Attempt Attempt
Pote from Sporting Lisbon had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but the shot went high and wide to the right. Trincão provided the assist.
30
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Martín Zubimendi of Arsenal headed the ball from a difficult position on the right after a corner.
29
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Geny Catamo concedes.
29
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gyökeres' right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
27
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon is awarded a corner after Cristhian Mosquera concedes it.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Hidemasa Morita of Sporting Lisbon.
24
Update Update
Noni Madueke of Arsenal won a free kick on the right wing.
23
Update Update
Fouled by Pote of Sporting Lisbon.
23
Update Update
Martín Zubimendi of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
22
Attempt Attempt
Eberechi Eze's shot from outside the box is blocked. Declan Rice provided the assist.
22
Update Update
Cristhian Mosquera from Arsenal committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Gonçalo Inácio from Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in defense.
21
Update Update
Fouled by Pote of Sporting Lisbon.
21
Update Update
Noni Madueke of Arsenal won a free kick in the attacking area.
19
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it goes high. The assist was provided by Noni Madueke.
18
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Trincão from Sporting Lisbon had a left-footed shot from the right side of the box that went wide to the left. The assist was provided by Morten Hjulmand.
17
Update Update
Luis Suárez is called offside for Sporting Lisbon.
13
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Geny Catamo of Sporting Lisbon.
12
Attempt Attempt
Declan Rice's shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Martín Zubimendi.
7
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Eduardo Quaresma concedes.
6
Attempt Attempt
Piero Hincapié's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Noni Madueke provided the assist.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Eduardo Quaresma of Sporting Lisbon.
2
Update Update
Gabriel Martinelli of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Arsenal exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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