FC Bayern München vs Real Madrid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Allianz Arena Wed, 15 Apr - 7:00 PM
Champions League
FC Bayern München FCB
4 Winner 3
Real Madrid RMA
Full Time Wed, 15 Apr 7:00 PM
Quarter Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 6 - 4
Aleksandar Pavlovic - 6'
Harry Kane - 38'
Luis Díaz - 89'
Michael Olise - 90+4'
Goal
|
Goal
Arda Güler - 1', 29'
Kylian Mbappé - 42'
|
Second yellow card Eduardo Camavinga 86'
Red Card Arda Güler 90+6'

CONTEXT

The match between FC Bayern München and Real Madrid is finished, with the full-time score 4-3 to FC Bayern München. This was leg two of the knockout tie. The first leg between Real Madrid and FC Bayern München finished 1-2 8 days ago. FC Bayern München's victory represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in their favor, as they were identified as the stronger side beforehand. The home team enjoyed the lion's share of possession, recording 69 percent to Real Madrid's 31 percent, though no expected goals figures are available to analyze further. Two red cards for the away team had a major event impact, distorting the second half and contributing to the high-scoring nature of the contest. The efficiency shift stayed in line with projections, and the outcome aligned well with the pre-match projection despite the absence of xG confirmation. Bayern's clinical performance in front of goal proved decisive, allowing them to overcome the visitors even as the game fluctuated with the early goals from both sides at half-time, where Real Madrid led 3-2 before the reds altered the dynamic.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Bayern München showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Smajc
D. Smajc
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
T. Klančnik
T. Klančnik
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
A. Kovačič
A. Kovačič
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
S. Vinčić
S. Vinčić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
FC Bayern München V. Kompany
V. Kompany
VS
Real Madrid Á. Arbeloa Coca
Á. Arbeloa Coca
2.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.91
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Madrid Rank: W
Atalanta Rank: W
Atalanta Rank: W
PSV Rank: W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: W
Sporting CP Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: L
Manchester City Rank: W
Manchester City Rank: W
Benfica Rank: W
Benfica Rank: W
Benfica Rank: L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 3 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Bayern München
61.59%
Draw
16.57%
Away Real Madrid
21.84%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Bayern München
+56.66%
Draw
-75.27%
Real Madrid
+18.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
46.43
39.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Bayern München
Real Madrid
Power Score
46.43
39.12
League Position
2
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Bayern München — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Bayern München Real Madrid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Bayern München

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Bayern München ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Madrid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.38
42.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.90
36.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Bayern München -0.49 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Madrid +0.49 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Bayern München
Real Madrid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Bayern München ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Madrid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Bayern München Real Madrid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Bayern München Real Madrid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Bayern München
Real Madrid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Bayern München
vs
Real Madrid
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Bayern München Real Madrid
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Bayern München 0.26
Real Madrid 0.46
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Bayern München Real Madrid
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Bayern München 0.12
Real Madrid 0.05
FC Bayern München
Real Madrid
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCB had peak pressure around 14'.
  • FCB started the game with stronger pressure.
FCB Pressure RMA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCB reached the top pressure at 14' (92.12).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Bayern München FCB Home
19 matches
Real Madrid RMA Away
Match Record
6
Wins
10
3
Draws
3
10
Losses
6
Goals
24
Goals Scored
33
33
Goals Conceded
24
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Expected Goals
2.69
xG
1.71
1.71
xGA
2.69

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:01:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
M. Neuer
Germany
1 M. Neuer
J. Stanisic
Substitution
Croatia
44 J. Stanisic
D. Upamecano
France
2 D. Upamecano
J. Tah
Germany
4 J. Tah
K. Laimer
Austria
27 K. Laimer
J. Kimmich
Germany
6 J. Kimmich
A. Pavlović
Germany
45 A. Pavlović
M. Olise
France
17 M. Olise
S. Gnabry
Substitution
Germany
7 S. Gnabry
L. Díaz Marulanda
Colombia
14 L. Díaz Marulanda
H. Kane
England
9 H. Kane
A. Lunin
Ukraine
13 A. Lunin
F. Mendy
France
23 F. Mendy
A. Rüdiger
Germany
22 A. Rüdiger
É. Gabriel Militão
Brazil
3 É. Gabriel Militão
T. Alexander-Arnold
Substitution
England
12 T. Alexander-Arnold
A. Guler
Substitution
Turkey
15 A. Guler
F. Valverde Dipetta
Uruguay
8 F. Valverde Dipetta
J. Bellingham
England
5 J. Bellingham
B. Abdelkader Diaz
Substitution
Spain
21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
V. Júnior
Brazil
7 V. Júnior
K. Mbappé
France
10 K. Mbappé

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 15, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe · Quarter Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 6 - 4
Stadium
Allianz Arena
Capacity
75024
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
David Smajc
Tomaž Klančnik
Andraž Kovačič
Slavko Vinčić

Statistics

Possession
FCB
64%
RMA
36%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 3
15 Shots 7
82 Dangerous attacks 26
69 Possession 31
9 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

13 Dribble Attempts 15
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
8 Successful Headers 12
3 Goal Kicks 7
4 Assists 1
17 Throwins 8
7 Successful Dribbles 9
67 Ball Safe 81
12 Goal Attempts 10
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Substitutions 3
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

126 Attacks 58
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

565 Successful Passes 229
640 Passes 293
88 Successful Passes Percentage 78
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
44 Long Passes 44
26 Successful Long Passes 16
15 Key Passes 9

Defensive

6 Interceptions 7
15 Tackles 14
42 Duels Won 45
2 Saves 4

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 7
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

10 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Slavko Vinčić

Starting XI ▼

1
Manuel Neuer
Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper
7.17
2
Dayot Upamecano
Dayot Upamecano Defender
6.72
4
Jonathan Tah
Jonathan Tah Defender
6.86
27
Konrad Laimer
Konrad Laimer Defender
6.88
44
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Defender
7.2
19
Alphonso Davies
Alphonso Davies
Defender46'
6.63
6
Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich Midfielder
7.28
7
Serge Gnabry
Serge Gnabry Midfielder
7.26
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala
Midfielder61'
6.61
14
Luis Díaz
Luis Díaz Midfielder
7.48
17
Michael Olise
Michael Olise Midfielder
7.82
45
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Aleksandar Pavlovic Midfielder
7.17
9
Harry Kane
Harry Kane Attacker
7.85
Referee : Slavko Vinčić

Starting XI ▼

13
Andriy Lunin
Andriy Lunin Goalkeeper
7
3
Éder Militão
Éder Militão Defender
7.05
12
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Trent Alexander-Arnold Defender
6.85
45
Thiago Pitarch
Thiago Pitarch
Midfielder90'
6.37
22
Antonio Rüdiger
Antonio Rüdiger Defender
6.58
23
Ferland Mendy
Ferland Mendy Defender
6.65
5
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham Midfielder
7.07
8
Federico Valverde
Federico Valverde Midfielder
7.32
15
Arda Güler
Arda Güler Midfielder
2
7.29
30
Franco Mastantuono
Franco Mastantuono
Attacker90'
6.75
21
Brahim Díaz
Brahim Díaz Midfielder
6.9
6
Eduardo Camavinga
Eduardo Camavinga
Midfielder62'
6.92
7
Vinicius Junior
Vinicius Junior Attacker
7.3
10
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé Attacker
8.1

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Arda Güler
1st Redcard
Event
Michael Olise
Left foot shot / 7th Goal
90+4'
90'
Event
Franco Mastantuono → Arda Güler
4th Substitution
90'
Event
Thiago Pitarch → Trent Alexander-Arnold
5th Substitution
Event
Luis Díaz
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
89'
86'
Event
Eduardo Camavinga
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
78'
Event
Eduardo Camavinga
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Antonio Rüdiger 
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Eduardo Camavinga → Brahim Díaz
3rd Substitution
Event
Jamal Musiala → Serge Gnabry
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Alphonso Davies → Josip Stanisic
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Vincent Kompany
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
44'
42'
Event
Kylian Mbappé
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
40'
Event
Éder Militão 
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Harry Kane
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
38'
Event
Josip Stanisic
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
29'
Event
Vincent Kompany
5th Yellowcard
29'
29'
Event
Arda Güler
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Header / 2nd Goal
6'
1'
Event
Arda Güler
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München won a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Michael Olise against FC Bayern München.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Vinícius Júnior of Real Madrid.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Franco Mastantuono replaces Arda Güler.
90
Update Update
That's it. The game finishes with FC Bayern München winning 4-3 against Real Madrid.
90
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior of Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with FC Bayern München defeating Real Madrid 4-3.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Franco Mastantuono replaces Arda Güler.
90
Update Update
Ferland Mendy of Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Konrad Laimer of FC Bayern München committed a foul.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München 4, Real Madrid 3. Michael Olise scores for FC Bayern München with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box into the top left corner, assisted by Harry Kane after a fast break.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Luis Díaz scores for FC Bayern München with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the right corner. The match is now 3-3, assisted by Jamal Musiala.
87
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior of Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Konrad Laimer of FC Bayern München.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Eduardo Camavinga of Real Madrid.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eduardo Camavinga of Real Madrid receives a second yellow card.
86
Update Update
Harry Kane of FC Bayern München won a free kick in defense.
85
Update Update
Fouled by Konrad Laimer of FC Bayern München.
85
Attempt Attempt
Harry Kane's shot for FC Bayern München is blocked. He attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Luis Díaz.
85
Update Update
Arda Güler of Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
84
Update Update
Éder Militão commits a foul for Real Madrid.
84
Update Update
Luis Díaz of FC Bayern München won a free kick in defense.
82
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Éder Militão from Real Madrid.
79
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Kylian Mbappé of Real Madrid.
79
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior of Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
79
Update Update
Fouled by Aleksandar Pavlovic of FC Bayern München.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eduardo Camavinga of Real Madrid receives a yellow card for a foul.
78
Update Update
Jamal Musiala of FC Bayern München won a free kick in the attacking area.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Eduardo Camavinga of Real Madrid.
77
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise from FC Bayern München misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
75
Corner Corner
Dayot Upamecano of FC Bayern München had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just wide of the top right corner. The assist came from Michael Olise, who delivered the cross.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Antonio Rüdiger for Real Madrid.
74
Update Update
Konrad Laimer from FC Bayern München won a free kick on the right wing.
72
Attempt Attempt
Luis Díaz's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Harry Kane.
71
Attempt Attempt
Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid missed a left-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Kylian Mbappé.
71
Attempt Attempt
Eduardo Camavinga's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antonio Rüdiger of Real Madrid receives a yellow card.
70
Update Update
Jamal Musiala from FC Bayern München won a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Update Update
Foul committed by Arda Güler against Real Madrid.
69
Attempt Attempt
Alphonso Davies' left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München after Andrii Lunin concedes.
68
Attempt Attempt
Jamal Musiala's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Alphonso Davies.
68
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Michael Olise of FC Bayern München takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Andrii Lunin of Real Madrid.
66
Attempt Attempt
Federico Valverde of Real Madrid attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved.
63
Attempt Attempt
Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, but it went close and missed to the left. The assist came from Kylian Mbappé after a fast break.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Eduardo Camavinga replaces Brahim Díaz.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Jamal Musiala replaces Serge Gnabry.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Eduardo Camavinga replaces Brahim Díaz.
60
Corner Corner
Real Madrid is awarded a corner after Alphonso Davies concedes.
60
Corner Corner
Jude Bellingham of Real Madrid missed a chance with a header from the center of the box following a corner.
57
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappé's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Brahim Díaz provided the assist.
57
Update Update
Alphonso Davies of FC Bayern München won a free kick in defense.
57
Update Update
Fouled by Federico Valverde of Real Madrid.
55
Corner Corner
Kylian Mbappé of Real Madrid attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but his shot is saved in the left corner by Manuel Neuer of FC Bayern München. The assist came from Trent Alexander-Arnold, who provided the cross.
54
Corner Corner
Real Madrid is awarded a corner after Alphonso Davies concedes it.
53
Update Update
Fouled by Harry Kane - FC Bayern München.
53
Corner Corner
Real Madrid wins a corner after Alphonso Davies concedes.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Jude Bellingham - Real Madrid.
52
Update Update
Éder Militão of Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Fouled by Ferland Mendy of Real Madrid.
50
Update Update
Aleksandar Pavlovic from FC Bayern München won a free kick on the left wing.
47
Update Update
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München won a free kick in defense.
46
Corner Corner
Dayot Upamecano from FC Bayern München heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard box, but it goes over the bar. The assist came from Joshua Kimmich, who provided a cross after a corner.
46
Corner Corner
FC Bayern München win a corner after Jude Bellingham concedes.
46
Attempt Attempt
Luis Díaz's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
46
Update Update
Antonio Rüdiger fouled a player from Real Madrid.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with FC Bayern München trailing 2-3 to Real Madrid.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Alphonso Davies replaces Josip Stanisic.
45
Update Update
Serge Gnabry of FC Bayern München won a free kick in defense.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Alphonso Davies replaces Josip Stanisic.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
41
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Kylian Mbappé scores for Real Madrid with a right-footed shot from the center of the box. The match score is now FC Bayern München 2, Real Madrid 3.
40
Attempt Attempt
Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid hits the woodwork with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Éder Militão of Real Madrid receives a yellow card for a foul.
40
Update Update
Éder Militão fouled for Real Madrid.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Harry Kane of FC Bayern München won a free kick in defense.
37
Corner Corner
Goal! Harry Kane scores for FC Bayern München with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner. The match is now 2-2, assisted by Dayot Upamecano.
35
Update Update
Serge Gnabry of FC Bayern München commits a foul.
35
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Josip Stanisic from FC Bayern München takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Andrii Lunin of Real Madrid.
34
Update Update
Antonio Rüdiger of Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Arda Güler scores for Real Madrid with a left-footed shot from a free kick. The match score is now FC Bayern München 1, Real Madrid 2.
29
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Serge Gnabry of FC Bayern München takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, which is saved by goalkeeper Andrii Lunin of Real Madrid, positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Josip Stanisic.
28
Update Update
Foul by Konrad Laimer of FC Bayern München.
28
Update Update
Brahim Díaz from Real Madrid won a free kick in an attacking position.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München after Andrii Lunin concedes.
27
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Joshua Kimmich of FC Bayern München has a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Andrii Lunin of Real Madrid. The assist came from Michael Olise.
26
Corner Corner
FC Bayern München win a corner, conceded by Federico Valverde.
26
Corner Corner
FC Bayern München wins a corner after Andrii Lunin concedes.
26
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Joshua Kimmich.
25
Update Update
Offside called against FC Bayern München. Luis Díaz is offside.
24
Attempt Attempt
Joshua Kimmich's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
24
Corner Corner
FC Bayern München wins a corner after Ferland Mendy concedes.
23
Corner Corner
FC Bayern München wins a corner after Antonio Rüdiger concedes.
20
Corner Corner
Real Madrid is awarded a corner after Konrad Laimer concedes.
18
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappé from Real Madrid misses a chance with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box.
15
Update Update
Éder Militão of Real Madrid won a free kick in defense.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Luis Díaz of FC Bayern München.
13
Corner Corner
FC Bayern München win a corner after Éder Militão concedes.
13
Corner Corner
Missed chance for FC Bayern München. Serge Gnabry heads the ball from inside the six-yard box on the left side after a corner.
9
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Dayot Upamecano.
8
Update Update
Fouled by Ferland Mendy of Real Madrid.
8
Update Update
Michael Olise from FC Bayern München won a free kick in defense.
6
Corner Corner
FC Bayern München wins a corner after Trent Alexander-Arnold concedes.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München equalizes to 1-1 against Real Madrid. Aleksandar Pavlovic scores with a header from close range after an assist from Joshua Kimmich's cross following a corner.
5
Update Update
Brahim Díaz from Real Madrid was awarded a free kick on the right wing.
5
Update Update
Fouled by Konrad Laimer of FC Bayern München.
2
Attempt Attempt
Harry Kane from FC Bayern München misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes over the goal.
1
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Real Madrid takes the lead 1-0 with Arda Güler scoring from outside the box with a left-footed shot into the top left corner.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Bayern München exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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