Newcastle United vs FC Barcelona Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
St. James' Park Tue, 10 Mar - 8:00 PM
Champions League
Newcastle United NEW
1 – 1
FC Barcelona BAR
Full Time Tue, 10 Mar 8:00 PM
Harvey Barnes - 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Lamine Yamal - 90+6' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Newcastle United and FC Barcelona has finished in a 1-1 draw. After a goalless first half where the teams were evenly matched at 0-0, both sides managed to find the back of the net in the second period but ultimately shared the spoils. This result did not align with the pre-match market. FC Barcelona entered the contest as the stronger team with a 39.5% probability of winning, compared to Newcastle's 36.3% and a low 24.2% chance for a draw. Because the visitors failed to secure the victory, there was a significant deviation from pre-game expectations, representing a notable underperformance by FC Barcelona. On the pitch, Barcelona controlled slightly more of the ball with 54% possession, leaving Newcastle with 46%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the final scoreline accurately reflected the quality of chances created, the overall efficiency shifts remained firmly in line with performance metrics. Additionally, the flow of the game was completely unaffected by severe disciplinary issues, as neither side received a red card during the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Barcelona showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Guida
M. Guida
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
G. Peretti
G. Peretti
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
M. Marcenaro
M. Marcenaro
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
G. Perrotti
G. Perrotti
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
VS
FC Barcelona H. Flick
H. Flick
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Olympique Marseille Rank: L
Athletic Club Rank: W
Benfica Rank: W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: W
FC Barcelona Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: W
Chelsea Rank: L
Club Brugge Rank: D
Olympiacos F.C. Rank: W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
Newcastle United Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Newcastle United
36.29%
Draw
24.21%
Away FC Barcelona
39.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.35
37.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Newcastle United
FC Barcelona
Power Score
28.35
37.32
League Position
12
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Barcelona — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Newcastle United FC Barcelona

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Newcastle United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Barcelona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Newcastle United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Barcelona
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.00
18.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.89
40.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Newcastle United +1.60 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Barcelona -1.60 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Newcastle United
FC Barcelona
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Newcastle United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Barcelona
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Newcastle United FC Barcelona
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Newcastle United FC Barcelona
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Newcastle United
FC Barcelona
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Newcastle United NEW Home
3 matches
FC Barcelona BAR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
2
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-11T00:08:16+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 10, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Stadium
St. James' Park
Capacity
52409
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marco Guida
Giorgio Peretti
Matteo Marcenaro
Giuseppe Perrotti

Statistics

Possession
NEW
49%
BAR
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 2
48 Dangerous attacks 24
46 Possession 54
9 Corners 4
10 Free kicks 19
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0
0 Penalties 1
8 Successful Dribbles 8
16 Successful Headers 12
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
18 Dribble Attempts 13
17 Throwins 16
5 Goal Kicks 5
1 Injuries 1
11 Goal Attempts 6
68 Ball Safe 71

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
75 Attacks 67

Possession

328 Passes 402
51 Long Passes 52
265 Successful Passes 326
81 Successful Passes Percentage 81
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
10 Key Passes 6
25 Successful Long Passes 16

Defensive

7 Interceptions 5
1 Saves 2
15 Tackles 29
48 Duels Won 57

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 9
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

13 Fouls 9
6 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Lamine Yamal
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Joe Willock
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Joe Willock → Harvey Barnes
9th Substitution
90+1'
88'
Event
Ferran Torres → Fermín López
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Xavi Espart → Ronald Araujo
7th Substitution
Event
Harvey Barnes
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
86'
73'
Event
Marc Casadó → Marc Bernal
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Dani Olmo → Pedri
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Marcus Rashford → Robert Lewandowski
5th Substitution
68'
Event
João Cancelo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Anthony Gordon → William Osula
1st Substitution
67'
Event
Tino Livramento → Kieran Trippier
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Jacob Murphy → Anthony Elanga
3rd Substitution
67'
1ST-HALF
Event
Sandro Tonali
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
34'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tino Livramento from Newcastle United fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
90
Update Update
Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United earned a free kick on the right flank.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Newcastle United and Barcelona.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Joe Willock replaces Harvey Barnes.
90
Update Update
Ferran Torres from Barcelona committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Joelinton from Newcastle United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Marcus Rashford commits a foul against Barcelona.
90
Update Update
Joe Willock from Newcastle United committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Lamine Yamal from Barcelona has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joe Willock from Newcastle United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Barcelona! Dani Olmo is fouled inside the box.
90
Update Update
Malick Thiaw of Newcastle United has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the box.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Newcastle United 1, Barcelona 1. Lamine Yamal from Barcelona scores the penalty with a left-footed strike.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Ferran Torres comes on to replace Fermín López.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Xavi Espart comes on to replace Ronald Araujo.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Newcastle United takes the lead against Barcelona, 1-0. Harvey Barnes scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the left corner. The assist comes from Jacob Murphy, who delivered a great cross.
84
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Marcus Rashford from Barcelona took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Raphinha.
84
Update Update
Dan Burn from Newcastle United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Update Update
Fermín López from Barcelona committed a foul.
80
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Newcastle United after João Cancelo allowed the ball to go out.
80
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jacob Ramsey of Newcastle United fires a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
79
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Newcastle United after Gerard Martín allowed the ball to go out.
79
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Barnes from Newcastle United had a shot with his right foot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Lewis Hall.
77
Update Update
Offside call against Newcastle United. Tino Livramento has been flagged for offside.
74
Update Update
Offside call against Newcastle United. Joelinton has been caught offside.
74
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Barnes from Newcastle United strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot taken from the left side of the penalty area.
73
Update Update
The pause has ended, and they're set to resume play.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Marc Casadó comes on to replace Marc Bernal due to an injury.
72
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Marc Bernal from Barcelona.
71
Update Update
Joelinton commits a foul for Newcastle United.
71
Update Update
Lamine Yamal from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Dani Olmo comes on to replace Pedri.
70
Update Update
Dani Olmo from Barcelona was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Update Update
Jacob Ramsey committed a foul against Newcastle United.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Barcelona: Marcus Rashford comes on in place of Robert Lewandowski.
69
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Jacob Murphy from Newcastle United took a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
João Cancelo of Barcelona has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
68
Update Update
Jacob Murphy from Newcastle United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
68
Update Update
João Cancelo from Barcelona committed a foul.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Anthony Gordon replaces William Osula.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Jacob Murphy comes on to replace Anthony Elanga.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Tino Livramento replaces Kieran Trippier.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Robert Lewandowski from Barcelona took a right-footed shot from the center of the box but it went wide. The assist came from Raphinha.
66
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Sandro Tonali of Newcastle United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Joelinton.
65
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Sandro Tonali from Newcastle United attempted a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area.
64
Update Update
Offside call against Newcastle United. Harvey Barnes has been caught in an offside position.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Barcelona, following a save by Aaron Ramsdale.
62
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Ronald Araujo of Barcelona attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went just wide. The chance was set up by Lamine Yamal, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
59
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Newcastle United after João Cancelo allowed the ball to go out.
58
Update Update
Sandro Tonali from Newcastle United committed a foul.
58
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Newcastle United. Harvey Barnes takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it’s stopped by the goalkeeper Joan García, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Lewis Hall.
58
Update Update
Pedri from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
56
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. William Osula from Newcastle United attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side.
50
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Anthony Elanga from Newcastle United attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area but failed to find the target.
49
Update Update
Anthony Elanga from Newcastle United was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
49
Update Update
Marc Bernal from Barcelona committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Ronald Araujo from Barcelona committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Malick Thiaw - Newcastle United.
47
Update Update
Robert Lewandowski from Barcelona was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Newcastle United after Raphinha conceded it.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Joan García from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Newcastle United 0, Barcelona 0.
45
Update Update
Joan García from Barcelona was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Newcastle United, following a foul by Ronald Araujo.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Newcastle United 0, Barcelona 0.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Barcelona after Dan Burn allowed the ball to go out.
42
Update Update
Pedri from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Jacob Ramsey committed a foul against Newcastle United.
40
Update Update
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Lamine Yamal from Barcelona committed a foul.
38
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
36
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. João Cancelo from Barcelona fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Barcelona. Fermín López takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Aaron Ramsdale from Newcastle United makes a fantastic save, denying it at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Raphinha.
36
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Kieran Trippier of Newcastle United.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sandro Tonali of Newcastle United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
34
Update Update
Raphinha from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Sandro Tonali from Newcastle United committed a foul.
33
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Anthony Elanga from Newcastle United takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
31
Update Update
Pedri from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Update Update
Joelinton commits a foul for Newcastle United.
27
Update Update
Close opportunity! William Osula from Newcastle United heads the ball from just a few meters out, but it's narrowly off target.
25
Update Update
Dan Burn from Newcastle United committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Robert Lewandowski from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Lamine Yamal from Barcelona takes a challenging right-footed shot from the right side, but Aaron Ramsdale of Newcastle United makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt in the top right corner.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Barcelona after Aaron Ramsdale allowed the ball to go out of play.
21
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Barcelona after Dan Burn allowed the ball to go out.
20
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Ronald Araujo from Barcelona attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
19
Update Update
Lamine Yamal from Barcelona has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
19
Update Update
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United committed a foul.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Newcastle United after Joan García allowed the ball to go out.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Newcastle United after João Cancelo allowed the ball to go out.
13
Attempt Attempt
Raphinha from Barcelona attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was deflected away. The assist came from Fermín López.
12
Update Update
Fermín López from Barcelona committed a foul.
12
Update Update
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Update Update
Offside call against Newcastle United. Harvey Barnes has been caught offside.
11
Update Update
Jacob Ramsey committed a foul against Newcastle United.
11
Update Update
Pedri from Barcelona has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Update Update
Harvey Barnes from Newcastle United was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
10
Update Update
Robert Lewandowski from Barcelona committed a foul.
8
Update Update
Offside call against Newcastle United. Harvey Barnes has been caught offside.
8
Update Update
Offside call against Barcelona. Robert Lewandowski has been flagged for being offside.
6
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. William Osula from Newcastle United took a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Lewis Hall.
6
Corner Corner
Newcastle United has been awarded a corner kick after Gerard Martín allowed the ball to go out of play.
4
Update Update
A header attempt from Sandro Tonali of Newcastle United is denied as it's blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Jacob Ramsey of Newcastle United fired a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Malick Thiaw.
3
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Newcastle United after João Cancelo allowed the ball to go out.
2
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Newcastle United after Gerard Martín allowed the ball to go out of play.
1
Update Update
Joelinton from Newcastle United committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Marc Bernal from Barcelona earned a free kick in the defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Barcelona exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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